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Predicting the size of an earthquake is essential.
预测地震的规模是至关重要的
Millions of quakes happen all over the world each year,
每年 世界上都有数百万地震发生
but the vast majority are too weak even to be felt.
但大部分地震都很微弱 甚至无法察觉
The real challenge for science
对于科学界的真正挑战
is to work out when one of these little earthquakes
在于计算出这些小地震
is going to develop into a major disaster.
发展成为大灾难的时刻
You don't want me to predict every earthquake,
人们不需要我们对每一个地震都作出预测
there's going to be 50
今天在加利福利亚州发生的地震
in California today.
也许就有50次
You want me to predict
人们需要我预测的是
which of the 35,000 we record each year
在我们每年记录的三万五千个地震
is the one or two large enough to do some damage,
有哪一两个是大到足以造成破坏的
and really, what we want to do
我们希望去做的
is really predict just the one that happens
也正是对那些5年或10年才发生一次的
every five or ten years that does a lot of damage.
具有破坏性的地震作出预测
Live, Los Angeles tonight,
直击今晚洛城地震现场
battered and bracing for the worst.
并作好了最坏的准备
The last earthquake to do a lot of damage in California
加利福利亚州最近的一次破坏性地震
stuck in Northridge, a suburb of Los Angles,
发生在洛杉矶的一个郊区 北岭
in January 1994.
发生于1994年1月
Measuring magnitude 6.7,
震级6.7级
it killed 72 people and caused over $20 billion in damage,
72人死亡 损失超过200亿美元
making it one of the costliest natural disasters in US history.
是美国历史上造成经济损失最大的自然灾害
The earth is literally split here.
看起来地面在这里断裂
The city wakes up to a nightmare.
城市被惊醒 遭遇噩梦般打击
But one man saw it coming.
然而 有人预测到了它的到来
