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The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,
老年医学医生会在一个人老化过程的后段，
when pathology is becoming evident,
病理越来越明显的时候，
and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,
做治疗来尽量阻止老化时间
and stop the accumulation of side effects
和副作用积累
from causing the pathology quite so soon.
并且阻止那么快就造成不可避免地死亡。
Of course, it's a very short-term-ist strategy; it's a losing battle,
当然，这是一个非常短暂的战略，是一个败仗，
because the things that are causing the pathology
因为导致病理不可避免地死亡的这些副作用
are becoming more abundant as time goes on.
会随着时间的推移越来越多。
The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface,
老年学的方法在表面上看起来更充满希望具发展前景，
because, you know, prevention is better than cure.
因为你们也知道，预防胜于治疗。
But unfortunately the thing is that we don't understand metabolism very well.
但不幸的是，我们对新陈代谢的理解非常少。
In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work --
事实上，我们对生物体的了解少的可怜 –
even cells we're not really too good on yet.
甚至细胞，我们都不是很懂。
We've discovered things like, for example,
连对细胞如何操作的
RNA interference only a few years ago,
基本知识，例如核糖核酸机能失常，
and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.
在仅仅几年前,我们才发现它。
Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,
基本上，如果我们要讨论在我们一生中能用到的延长寿命的治疗，
but it is not an approach whose time has come
老年学以后将会是一个很好的方法，
when we're talking about intervention.
但它的时机未到。
So then, what do we do about that?
然后呢，这怎么办呢？
I mean, that's a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing,
我的意思，这是一个很好的逻辑，
pretty ironclad, doesn't it?
听起来非常有说服力的，不是吗？
But it isn't.
但事实并非如此。
Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit
在我告诉你为什么不能之前，
into what I'm calling step two.
我要谈谈我所谓的第二步。
Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire --
我们假设，如果正如我所说的，
let's say we do it today for the sake of argument --
我们 -假设说今天 –
the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life
就拥有能够给现在已是中年，假设说五十五岁的人，
on people who are already in middle age, let's say 55.
多三十年的健康寿命的治疗方法。
I'm going to call that "robust human rejuvenation." OK.
我称这为‘强健人类再生’ 。好。
What would that actually mean
那么实际上这对于现在不同年龄的人们，
for how long people of various ages today --
或者相等地，当这些治疗方法到达时
or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive --
已是不同年龄的人有什么影响呢？
would actually live?
他们会活多久些呢？
In order to answer that question -- you might think it's simple,
你可能会认为回答这个问题很简单，
but it's not simple.
但它并不简单。
We can't just say, "Well, if they're young enough to benefit from these therapies,
我们不能只是说：“好吧，如果他们足够年轻，得益于这些治疗方法，
then they'll live 30 years longer."
那么他们就会活多三十年的时间。”
That's the wrong answer.
这是错误的答案。
And the reason it's the wrong answer is because of progress.
而错误的原因是因为进步。
There are two sorts of technological progress really,
对于我们这方面的治疗，
for this purpose.
科学进步有两种。
There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,
第一种是突破性的进步，
and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.
然后还有第二种就是不断的在那些突破性的进步上做出改良和提高它们的有效率。
Now, they differ a great deal
这两种科学进步所需的
in terms of the predictability of time frames.
时间的预测度有很大的不同。
Fundamental breakthroughs:
我们很难预测
very hard to predict how long it's going to take
多久才会有
to make a fundamental breakthrough.
突破性的进步。
It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun,
人类很有可能在很多年前就想在天空上飞行了，
and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.
可是要等到一九零三年才发现到底怎么飞行。
But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.
可是这之后，人类飞行的科技就很有步骤地发展下去。
I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened
我认为这是一个很合乎情理才导致了
in the progression of the technology of powered flight.
动力飞行的科技进展。
We can think, really, that each one is sort of
我们可以想象这些科技发展的每一步都是
beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.
上一步的研发人所想不到的。
The incremental advances have added up to something
比起原先每次都递进增值
which is not incremental anymore.
有进展。
This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.
在每个科学突破性的进步后，您都会看到这些有步骤性的发展。
And you see it in all sorts of technologies.
而且在很多科技上都是这样。
Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,
比如说电脑，和飞行科技也很类似，
happening of course a bit later.
只是发生的时间不同罢了。
You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics --
您也可以看一看医药保健科技，比如说卫生，疫苗，抗生素，
you know, the same sort of time frame.
也有着一样的发展时间表。
So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,
因此，我认为其实两个步骤，我刚才称为一个步骤，
isn't a step at all.
并不完全是一个步骤。
That in fact, the people who are young enough
事实上，很年轻的人
to benefit from these first therapies
会从这些实验治疗方法受益，
that give this moderate amount of life extension,
能使人们的生命适量延长，
even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive,
即使这些人已经中年，当这些治疗方法来到
will be at some sort of cusp.
人们还可以尝试治疗方法。
They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments
他们多数活得足够长来接受改进的治疗方法，
that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.
从而使他们多活30年甚至50年。
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.
换句话说，他们将领先于老化的速度。
