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60 Second Adventures in Economics—Number Three:The Phillips Curve.
《60秒经济学探奇》第三节：菲利普斯曲线
Bill Phillips was a crocodile hunter and economist from New Zealand, who spotted that, when employment levels are high, wages rise faster—people have more money to spend, so prices go up and so does inflation.
比尔·菲利普斯是新西兰鳄鱼猎手和经济学家，他发现，就业率水平高时，工资增长更快，人们有更多钱花。
And likewise, when unemployment is high, the lack of money to spend means that inflation goes down. This became known as the Phillips Curve.
价格也会增加，通胀增加。相反，失业率高时，人们花的钱少，通胀减少。这被称为菲利普斯曲线。
Governments even set policy by the curve, tolerating the inflation when they spent extra money creating jobs.
政府甚至根据曲线制定政策，在花更多钱创造工作机会时容忍通胀。
But they forgot that the workers could also see the effects of the curve.
但政府忘了，工人们也能看到曲线的效果。
So, when unemployment went down, they expected inflation and demanded higher wages,
失业率下降后 他们预计会通胀并要求更高工资，
causing unemployment to go back up, while inflation remained high.
导致失业率回升，但通胀仍然保持高位。
Which is what happened in the 1970s when both inflation and unemployment rose.
这是1970年代通胀和失业率同时上升的情况。
Then in the 90s unemployment dropped while inflation stayed low, which all rather took the bend out of Phillips' curve.
然后90年代 失业率下降 通胀保持低位，这些情况都无法用菲利普斯曲线解释。
But at least part of Phillips' troublesome trade-off lives on:
但至少，菲利普斯给出的讨厌取舍关系部分还存在：
when faster growth and full employment return, you can bet inflation will be along to spoil the party.
高增长和高就业率时，你可以打赌，通胀会出来制造麻烦。
