评论
打印
60 Second Adventures in Economics—Number six: Rational Choice Theory
《60秒经济学探奇》第六节：理性选择理论
Of all the things to factor in when running an economy, the most troublesome is people.
运行一个经济体，最让人头疼的因素莫过于人。
Now by and large—humans are a rational lot.
总体而言，人是理性的。
When the price of something rises people will supply more of it—and buy less of it.
价格上涨时，人们会供给更多，购买更少。
If they expect inflation to go up—people will usually ask for higher wages (though they might not get them)
如果通胀上升，人们会要求更高工资。只是可能得不到。
And if they can see interest or exchange rates falling in one country, people with lots of money there will try to move it out, faster than you can say 'double dip'.
看到一个国家的利率或汇率下降时，有很多钱的人们会将钱移往海外 快得你来不及说“二次探底”。
And governments often decide their economic policies assuming such rational actions.
而政府通常在假设理性行为的前提下进行经济政策决策。
Which would be great, if it weren't for the fact that those pesky humans don't always do what's best for them.
这非常棒，如果不是那些烦人的人类总不按照对他们最有利的方式行事的话。
Sometimes they mistakenly think they know all the facts, or maybe the facts are just too complicated.
有时他们误以为自己知道所有事实，或者也许事实太过复杂。
And sometimes people just decide to follow the crowd, relying on others to know what they're doing.
有时人们只是从众，看别人怎么做自己就怎么做。
When too many cheap mortgages were being sold in 2007 a lot of people didn't know what was going on.
2007年，太多便宜抵押贷款被出售，很多人都不知道是什么情况，
And a lot of others just followed the crowd. Some lenders may have rationally believed that,
很多人只是追随大众。某些放款人也许理性地相信，
when the crunch came, the scale of the problem would force governments to rescue them.
危机来临时，问题的规模会逼迫政府援救他们。
Which was true for the banks. If not for all their customers.
对于银行是如此，但对他们的所有顾客并非如此。
