Section 2. Task 1. The Years to come. Part 1.
Good morning, welcome to the Years to Come. I'm Mal Carrington, and every week at this time, Channel 5 brings you information on life in the future from an expert in the field. Today's expert is Dr Reginald Healyfrom MIT, the famous Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Good morning, Dr Healy. Welcome to the Years to Come. Thank you. Well, what are you predictions about the world? What is it going to be like in the year 2000?
Hum, it present trends continue. I'm afraid the world in 2000 will be more crowded and more polluted than the world we live in now.
Yes, however, food production is constantly increasing. Don't you think we'll be able to cope with the increase in world population?
I don't think so. Even though production is constantly increasing, the people of the world will be poorer than they are today.
For hundreds of millions of the desperately poor, the supply of food and other necessities of life will not be any better.
And for many, they will be worse, unless the nations of the world do something to change the current trends.
What is your estimate of world population in AD 2000? Well, already world population is about 5,000 million.
If present trends continue, that is with the number of birth by far exceeding the number of deaths. In 2000, the world population could approach 6,500 million people.
How many people are born every day? About 250 every minute, but only 100 people die. This means there is an increase of 216,000 people per day, and 90% of this increase is in the poorest countries.
That's worrying. And what about energy, will there be enough oil to satisfy our needs in 2000?
During the 1990s, world oil production will reach the maximum, and the price of oil will begin to increase. At the end of the century, the available supplies will not be sufficient for our needs. So at least partof these needs will have to be met by alternative sources of energy.
Yes. Water is becoming a problem too. Yes, unfortunately, water shortage will become more severe in the future, and due to the increase of the births, there will be enough water only for half of the population.
Which of the present trends do you think will continue over the next decade? Well, significant loss of theworld's forests will continue over the next ten years as the demand for wood, for fuel and manufacturing purposes increases.
Also atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other chemicals is expected to increase at rates thatcould alter the world's climate due to the greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse effect, could you explain what the greenhouse effect is? Sure, well, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air is progressively increasing and it traps more of the heat of the sun in the lower atmosphere.
This has a warming effect which could change the climate and even melt the polar ice caps, which would cause disastrous flooding.
I see, is this the only effect of carbon dioxide? No, it isn't. Carbon dioxide and other chemicals which derive from the use of fossil fuels will also increase the quantity of acid rain which is already damaging or even destroying plants, trees and other parts of our environment.
Also, there will be a dramatic increase in the number of species becoming extinct. Hundreds of thousands of species will be lost because the loss of their habitat.
That's appalling. What about nuclear plants? Aren't they a constant menace to life on our planet?
Definitely, and apart from the more obvious danger of accidents, like the one at Chemobyl, there's the problem of the disposal of nuclear waste, that is the waste which is produced by nuclear power stations.
Oh, yes, I know that some of the materials keep their radioactivity for hundreds or thousands of years.
Yeah, for example, strontium 90 needs storing for 500 years, being kept cool all the time. Plutonium 239 may need storing for up to half a million years.
So, what is going to happen to the Earth in the next few years? Will we be able to reverse this trend towards destruction?
What is your prediction. Well, I don't want to be pessimistic, but I'm afraid that if this trend doesn't change within 5 or 10 years, we won't be able to do very much to save the earth.
Well, that's a warning that we all need to take seriously. And with that warning, we end part one of this week's the years to come. We'll be back soon after the break.