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So, you know? Describe manufacturing in the 1980's.
大家想一想80年代的制造业
You could im-, you could do a better disk, build a better disk drive than anybody else.
你可以做出比别人好得多的光盘和光驱
You could take over the whole world.
你可以席卷全球
And two years later someone else would come along and replace yours.
但两年后可能有人就会超过你，取代你
And the course of 15 years, you got vastly improved disk drives, so it had great benefit to consumers,
经过15年的不懈努力，光驱的性能得到了很大改善，对消费者很有好处
but it didn't actually help the people who started these companies.
但对于这些生产光驱的公司来说，却没什么好处
And so there's always this question about having a huge breakthrough in technology,
对于科技上的巨大突破来说总会有这样的问题
but then also being able to say, explain why, yours will be the last breakthrough,
对于你来说，当你有所突破的时候
or at least the last breakthrough for a long time, or when you make a breakthrough.
你的创新必须是最后一个创新点，或者是一个可以保持很长时间的创新之处
And then you can keep improving on it at a quick enough pace that no one can ever catch up.
然后你继续不懈努力，动作迅速以至于没人能赶上你
So, if you have a structure of structure of the future where there's a lot of innovation
如果你身处于一个不断创新的领域,
and other people will come up with new things in the thing you're working on.
其他人也在这个领域致力于发明新的东西
That's great for society. It's actually not that good for your business, typically.
这对社会是有好处的。但通常对你的公司来说则不是好事
And then economies of scale, we've already talked about.
接着我们再说说规模经济，之前说讲过了
So I think this last mover thing is very critical.
我认为“笑到最后”这事挺关键的
I'm always, you know, I don't wanna overdo the chess analogies,
我经常用下国际象棋来举例
but the first mover in chess is someone who plays white.
国际象棋中白棋先走
White is about a 1/3 of a pawn advantage, so there's a small advantage to going first.
白棋约有1/3个兵的优势，因此先走是有小小优势的
You wanna be the last mover, who wins the game, so there's always the, Capablanca world champion,
你想要成为笑到最后的赢家，世界冠军Capablanca说过
Capablanca must begin by studying the end game, and I do think that is.
学习国际象棋必须从残局开始，我对此非常赞同
While I wouldn't say that's the only thing you should study.
尽管这并不是你需要学的唯一的东西
