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A decade ago, robots still seemed pretty limited. Now, not so much.
十年前，机器人的功能似乎还十分局限，如今情况已经大为不同了。
And computers don’t just win chess any more, they can win Jeopardy.
现在，电脑不仅会下国际象棋，还能玩《危险边缘》这种益智游戏。
“Watson, What is the of the Elegance of the Hedgehog?
“沃森，《刺猬的优雅》是什么？”
They can win Go.
他们还会下围棋。
“There are about 200 possible moves for the average position in Go.”
“围棋普通的摆位下有大约200种走法。”
This is all happening really fast,
一切都来得太快了，
and it’s causing some to forecast a future where humans can’t find work.
有人甚至预言未来人类将会失业。
“There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.”
“机器人做不了的工作会越来越少。”
“And what are the people gonna do?” “That’s the $64,000 question.”
“那人类要怎么办？” “这是一个价值6.4万美元的问题啊”
I believe this is going to be one of the biggest challenges we face in the coming decades.
我认为这是未来几十年我们将面临的最大的挑战之一。
“People who are not just unemployed. They are unemployable.”
“人类不止是会失业，而且是不值得雇佣的。”
But if you ask economists, they tend to have a pretty different view from the futurists and Silicon Valley types.
但如果问一问经济学家，他们的观点跟那些预言家以及硅谷派人士的看法大为不同。
Do you worry that new technologies could cause mass unemployment? Yes. No.
你担心新科技会引起大规模失业吗？担心，不担心。
I have devoted my career to worrying about the labor market,
在工作中我一直担心的是劳动力市场
particularly worrying about the living standards of low and moderate income workers.
尤其是那些中低收入人群的生活水平。
So I worry a lot about things. I am not worried about this.
所以，虽然我担心的问题很多，但不包括这个问题。
One of the reasons a lot of economists are skeptical about robots taking all the jobs is that we’ve heard that before.
未来机器人是否会包揽所有工作岗位？对此很多经济学家表示怀疑怀疑，因为以前就曾有过这类问题。
There was a spike of automation anxiety in the late 20s, early 1930s when machines were starting to take over jobs on farms and also in factories.
二十年代末三十年代初，机器开始取代农场、工厂的人力，人们便对自动化产生了极度焦虑。
This article from 1928 points out that there used to be guards who opened and closed the doors on New York subway trains,
这篇1928年的文章显示，纽约地铁上曾经是有保安负责开关门的，
and people who took tickets before there were turnstiles.
而且，在自动检票口出现之前还有人专门检票
And I just love this quote, it says “building materials are mixed like dough, in a machine and literally poured into place without the touch of a human hand.”
我很喜欢这句引用，它说，“建材就像甜甜圈一样在一个机器里拌来拌去，然后直接就倒入模具里，整个过程丝毫不需要人力。”
Automation anxiety surged again in the late 1950s, early 1960s.
五十年代末六十年代初，自动化焦虑再次出现。
President Kennedy ranks automation first as job challenge.
肯尼迪总统称，自动化是影响就业的最大因素。
“Computers and automation threaten to create vast unemployment and social unrest”
“计算机和自动化疑似会带来大规模失业以及社会动乱。”
“What should I do Mr. Whipple?” “Stop him!”
“惠普尔先生，我该怎么办？” “拦住他！”
This article from 1958 is about 17,000 longshoremen who were protesting automation on the piers.
这篇1958奶奶的文章提到，1.7万码头工人纷纷站起来，抗议集装箱的自动化。
And if you don't know what longshoremen are, that’s because there aren’t many of them left.
如果你不知道什么是码头工人，那是因为现在已经很少有码头工人了。
Technology destroyed a lot of those jobs.
技术进步淘汰了很多类似的工作。
And yet, we didn’t run out of work.
然而，我们还是不缺工作。
This chart shows the percentage of prime-age people with jobs in the US.
这张表显示的是美国有工作的核心劳动人口数据。
Ever since women joined the workforce in big numbers, it’s stayed around 80%, outside of recessions.
自从女性大量涌入劳动力市场，这一数据就一直保持在80%左右的水平，高于经济危机时的水平。
During this period, technology displaced some 8 million farmers in the US, 7 million factory workers,
这一时期，技术进步取代了美国将近800万农民，700万工人，
over a million railroad workers, hundreds of thousands of telephone operators,
上百万铁路工人以及数十万电话接线员的工作。
we’ve lost gas-pumpers, elevator attendants, travel agents. Tons of jobs have died but work persists.
我们失去了加油站加油的工人、电梯服务员和旅行社。无数岗位化为泡影，但这些工作并没有停下来。
What you realize when you look through those old reports
翻看这些从前的报告，你会发现，
is that it’s really easy for us to see the jobs being replaced by machines.
我们很容易看到有多少岗位被机器取代了，
it’s a bit harder to visualize the jobs that come from what happens next.
但要想看出未来会出现什么岗位就不那么容易了。
New technology creates jobs in a few ways.
新科技可以通过很多方式创造工作岗位。
There are the direct jobs for people who design and maintain the technology,
有设计、维护这些技术的直接岗位，
and sometimes whole new industries built on the technology.
有时甚至会在某种技术基础上生发出一个新的产业。
But the part we tend to forget is the indirect effect of labor-saving inventions.
但我们似乎容易忘记这些节省劳力的发明带来的间接影响。
When companies can do more with less, they can expand, maybe add new products or open new locations,
能够低投入高回报时，企业就可以扩大规模，甚至开发新的产品或开分部
and they can lower prices to compete.
也能以低价与其他企业竞争。
And that means consumers can buy more of their product, or if we don’t want any more of it,
这也就意味着消费者有能力购买企业更多产品，即便我们不想买，
we can use the savings to buy other things.
我们也可以用省下来的钱买别的东西。
Maybe we go to more sports events or out to dinner more often.
或许我们能看更多比赛，能更多地去外面吃饭；
Maybe we get more haircuts or add more day-care for the kids.
或许能多做几次发型，或是给孩子买更多的日用品。
This process is how our standard of living has improved over time and it’s always required workers.
一直以来，我们的生活水平就是这样不断提高的，而且这个过程一直都需要劳动力。
