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What do you think of when you hear the word “war?” Is it this? Or maybe this?
听到“战争”这个词你会想到什么？是这种画面吗？还是这种？
Well, there’s a different type of war you may have heard a lot about recently.
话说，大家最近可能听了很多关于另外一种战争的信息。
Trade war worries igniting.
人们担心的贸易战终于就要爆发了。
Is the trade war back on? Trade war. Trade war. Full-blown trade war.
贸易战又重演了吗？贸易战。贸易战。全面的贸易战。
The “weapons” in a trade war are everywhere.
贸易战的“武器”可以说是无处不在。
It's the food you eat. The train you ride to work.
你吃的食物，你上下班乘坐的地铁。
And the laptop you’re probably watching this video on.
还有你现在可能正在用来观看我们这期视频的电脑，都是贸易战的武器。
As a consumer you're probably consuming imports.
作为消费者，您可能正在用一些进口产品。
If we have a trade war and we start slapping tariffs on all of those imports, the bill is going to be higher.
如果我们发动贸易战，开始对所有这些进口产品征收关税，那么账单就会更贵。
If the world relies so much on trade, what is a trade war and why do countries get caught up in them in the first place?
世界如此依赖贸易，那什么是贸易战呢？为什么有些国家还会首先陷入这种战争呢？
Alright, global trade can be a dry topic so let’s jazz this up a little bit.
好吧，全球贸易这个问题可能会比较枯燥，所以我们还是来点儿爵士乐吧。
To avoid any spoilers, let’s say it’s season one of Game of Thrones and both the Tyrell and the Lannister kingdoms manufacture… googly eyes.
为了避免任何剧透，我们姑且就把它当成是《权游》的第一季，提利尔和兰尼斯特的王国都制造......活动眼睛。
The Tyrells then start to subsidize googly eye manufacturing in their kingdom.
接着，提利尔开始对自己王国内的活动眼睛制造行业发放补贴。
That basically means that the Tyrells are paying at least part of the cost of manufacturing, reducing the cost for buyers.
这基本上意味着提利尔支付了部分制造成本，降低了消费者的购买成本。
The Lannisters are understandably upset — why would anyone want to buy their more expensive product?
兰尼斯特人理所当然就很难过 - 谁会想买他们的贵的？
They could try and negotiate with the Tyrells or they could choose to impose tariffs:
他们可以选择和提利尔人谈判，也可以选择对提利尔的产品征收关税：
taxes on imports that raise the cost of those goods.
关税就是对进口商品征收的会提高进口产品销售成本的税。
Which in this case, would punish the Tyrells.
在这种情况下，提利尔人就等于受到了惩罚。
With the tariffs in place, if the Tyrells tried to export goods to the Lannisters, they’d have to pay an extra tax.
随着关税的到位，如果提利尔人试图向兰尼斯特人出口货物，他们就必须支付额外的关税。
The Tyrells could then impose tariffs of their own.
提利尔人自己也可以征收关税。
Now if this disagreement goes back and forth and escalates with even more tariffs, that would be considered a trade war.
如果这种分歧反复出现，并且愈演愈烈，导致关税越来越高，就会引发所谓的贸易战。
But trade wars aren’t fiction and there’s more than one way they can start.
然而，贸易战并不是虚构的，爆发的方式也不一而足。
One possibility is you want to keep out countries import so that your domestic competitors have an edge.
一种可能性是希望阻止进口产品，为国内的竞对产品创造优势。
The second possibility is if there's a country that is doing something that you don't want them to,
第二种是某个国家正在做一些你不希望他们做的事情时，
you can use a tariff as a way of inflicting a degree of pain, of economic pain on that country.
你可以用关税来对该国造成一定程度的痛苦，一定程度的经济阵痛。
And you say until you change your evil ways I'm going to make it hurt.
然后告诉他们，除非他们停止继续作恶，否则你就要给他们点颜色看看。
Okay, so who “wins” a trade war?
那贸易战的赢家是谁呢？
One way to think about who “wins” a trade war is looking at which country has more targets to choose from.
考虑谁是贸易战的“赢家”的一种方式是看哪个国家选择的余地更大。
The more goods you ship to another country, the more vulnerable your goods are to punishing tariffs.
您运往一个国家的货物越多，您的货物就越容易受到关税的影响。
So some economists would say that the country which ships fewer goods to the other has an advantage — and can outlast the other in a big clash.
所以一些经济学家才会说，向另一方输出货物更少的国家占有优势地位 - 并能够在大型冲突中坚持更长的时间。
Trade wars can also boost the fortunes of countries that stand outside the fray.
贸易战还能让那些站在旁观者位置的国家大赚一笔。
In the 1930s, the US enacted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
20世纪30年代，美国颁布了“斯姆特 - 霍利关税法案”，
which put into place steep, sweeping tariffs on imports as a way to protect American workers and industries.
该法案对进口产品一律实行了严格的关税制度，以此保护美国工人和美国的工业。
Canada and some European countries put up tariffs of their own, launching a trade war.
加拿大和一些欧洲国家便提高了自己国家的关税，贸易战由此爆发。
Some of these countries then abandoned the US as a trading ally and took their trading elsewhere.
随后，一些国家甚至脱离了与美国的贸易伙伴关系，将目光转向了其他国家。
Soviet Russia, a country not involved in the trade war, ended up gaining trading partners as a result of Smoot-Hawley.
期间，没有参与这场贸易战的苏联反而收获了贸易伙伴。
So sometimes countries not involved in a trade war can benefit from one.
也就是说，有时候，没有参与贸易战的国家反而可以从贸易战中分一杯羹。
But, as is the case with most wars, trade wars are harmful for almost everyone involved — particularly for poorer consumers.
然而，正如大多数战争一样，几乎所有的贸易战参与者也都是受害者 - 较贫穷的消费者受到的伤害尤其大。
Rising prices in a trade war can have ripple effects.
贸易战中价格的上涨可能会产生连锁反应。
When people have to spend more money on basics like clothing, it means they have less money to spend on other goods and services.
当人们在衣服这种基本生活资料上花的钱越来越多时，他们花在其他商品和服务上的钱就会越来越少。
And that can dampen the pace of the economy.
如此以来，经济增速就可能受到影响。
Traditionally when you've looked at trade protection, you often put higher protection on goods that are consumed by poor people.
贸易保护传统的做法是提高对穷人消费的商品的保护。
There are economists who have documented that systematically you tend to find higher tariffs on things like low-end clothing, shoes, sugar,
经济学家已经证明，我们能够看到，高关税针对的往往都是低档服装、鞋子、糖之类的商品，
which play a disproportionate role in the spending of people who are less was well off.
而这些商品在不那么富裕的人群的消费中占了重大比例。
In April, President Trump unveiled a list of over 1000 Chinese exports — things like aircraft parts, TVs, and medical devices —
今年4月，特朗普总统公布了一份1000多种中国出口产品的清单 - 包括飞机零件、电视和医疗设备等 -
that he planned to place tariffs on, as a way to to punish Beijing for restricting US investment in China and for stealing American intellectual property.
计划对这些产品征收关税，以惩罚中国限制美国在华投资并窃取美国知识产权的行为。
The very next day, China struck back, unveiling its own list of US exports that it planned to place tariffs on.
次日中国就对特朗普的行动做出了反击，中国公布了自己计划征收关税的美国产品清单。
Since then, Trump has threatened another round of tariffs, with China ready to respond with its own additional tariffs.
那以后，特朗普威胁要发动新一轮关税制裁，中国也准备以自己征收额外关税作出回应。
The whole situation is starting to look a lot like a trade war.
如今，整个局势已经很像贸易战了。
Countries disagree on fair and unfair trade practices all the time.
一直以来，世界各国对公平和不公平的贸易做法都各执一词。
But there’s something unique about Trump’s approach to it:
但特朗普对一问题的处理有一些独特之处：
the unpredictability, the wild threats, the disinterest in even pretending to play by the rules.
他的方式不仅充满了不可预测性，他采用的是狂野的威胁，甚至连假装配合游戏规则的兴趣都没有。
Trump isn’t just destabilizing trade relations with China or any other country he threatened—
特朗普不仅破坏了美国与中国，乃至所有被他威胁的国家的贸易关系，
he’s destabilizing the entire global system of trade.
他还打破了整个全球贸易体系的稳定局面。
