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You've come a long way to compete in the great Diskymon league and prove yourself a Diskymon master.
你在“轮盘大师”大战里一路过关斩将，已经证明自己是一名合格的“轮盘大师”。
Now that you've made it to the finals, you're up against some tough competition.
现在你进入了决赛圈，你将面临艰难的挑战。
As you enter the arena, the referee explains the rules. There are three Diskydisks you can use.
你进入竞技场后，裁判正在解释规则。每位训练师有三个神奇轮盘可以使用。
Disk A will always summon a level 3 Burgersaur.
轮盘A一定会召唤出一个3级“汉堡怪”。
Disk B summons a Churrozard that has a 56% chance of being level 2, a 22% chance of being level 4, and a 22% chance of being level 6.
轮盘B会召唤出一只油条蜥，56%的机率会召唤出2级的，有22%的机率召唤出4级或6级的。
Disk C will summon a level 5 Wartortilla 49% of the time, and a level 1 Wartortilla 51% of the time.
轮盘C有49%的机率召唤出等级5的玉米饼战争机器，并有51%的机率召唤出一个等级1的玉米饼战争机器。
All Diskymon fully heal between battles, and the higher level Diskymon always wins, no matter what type it is.
战斗过后，所有轮盘怪都会完全恢复战斗力，无论它们是什么品种，拥有更高等级的总会获胜。
In round one, you'll face a single opponent and get to choose your disk before she picks from the remaining two. Which one gives you the best chance of winning?
在第一轮，你只需面对一个对手，并且你可以先挑选轮盘，对手会从剩下的两个中挑选一个。哪一个的获胜几率最大？
Before you start calculating probabilities, take a look at the disks themselves.
在你开始计算概率之前，我们先来看看3个轮盘的功能。
Disks B and C each have a more than 50% chance of summoning a level 2 or a level 1 Diskymon, respectively.
轮盘B和轮盘C都有超过一半的概率召唤出一个等级2或等级1的怪兽。
This means that disk A's guaranteed level 3 Burgersaur will always have better than even odds of winning.
这意味着轮盘A会保证召唤出一个3级汉堡怪，并永远有超过一半的机率获胜。
If you choose B or C, your opponent could pick A and gain an advantage over you.
如果你选择B或C，你的对手可能会选A来战胜你。
And C fares worst of all, being more than 50% likely to lose to any opponent.
C是最差的，用它会有超过一半的可能性输给任何对手。
So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough, your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard.
所以你选了A，并希望有最好的结果，果不其然，你等级3的汉堡怪战胜了等级2的油条蜥。
Now it's time for round two, and while you've prepared for trouble, you didn't anticipate they'd make it double.
现在来到了第二轮，虽然你准备好面对困难，出乎意料的是，你的挑战难度加倍了。
You get to choose any one of the three disks again, but this time, you'll be in a battle royale against two opponents, each using one of the other disks.
你可以再次选择三个轮盘中的任何一个，但是这次，您将与两个对手（每个都使用另一个轮盘）进行一场大逃杀。
Whoever summons the highest level Diskymon wins. Should you stick with A, or switch?
召唤出等级最高的轮盘怪的则是本轮的赢家。那么，你应该继续用A还是换轮盘？
For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C.
对于许多训练师来说，如果选A，目的是逐个打败B或C的话，一定也可以同时打败B和C。
Strangely enough, that couldn't be further from the truth. Let's calculate the odds.
但奇怪的是，这并不是事实。让我们来计算一下概率。
For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1.
如果A要赢，B必须要召唤出一个2级怪兽，并且C必须召唤出一个1级怪兽。
Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%.
这些是独立事件，因此发生的几率是56％乘以51％，即29％。
For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you'd have two ways to win.
轮盘B这边，等级2的油条蜥肯定会输给汉堡怪。但你有两种方法来赢。
The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1.
第一，22%的机率召唤出等级6的怪兽让你大获全胜，其二，召唤出等级4的怪兽，只要C召唤出等级1的怪兽，你也能够胜出。
Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%.
加总这两个互相独立的机率，可以得出33%的胜率。
Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn't summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall.
最后，轮盘C可以召唤出一个等级5的战争机器，只要轮盘B不召唤出一个6级怪兽，你就有38%的胜率。
So while disk A's middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better.
所以尽管轮盘A的中等一致性在单一比赛中是一种优势，但多次战斗会增加其他轮盘召唤出等级更高的怪兽的几率。
And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents simultaneously.
虽然C是第一轮最糟糕的选择，但当它同时面对两个对手时，它有机会召唤出一个强大的5级怪兽。
This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
这种违反直觉的结果，就是为什么误导的统计数据成了不择手段的政客和邪恶的轮盘怪兽训练师更喜欢使用的工具。
Fortunately, your Wartortilla comes out level 5 and makes short work of its foes.
幸运的是，你的5级玉米饼战争机器很快就干掉了它的敌人。
You're about to celebrate when your rivals capture the referee and announce a surprise third round.
当你正准备庆祝胜利时，你的对手抓住裁判，把比赛拖入了第三轮。
You'll have to repeat each of the previous matches in succession, with all the same rules except for one: you must keep the same disk throughout.
你必须重复前面的每一轮比赛，所有规则都相同，只有一个例外：你必须使用相同的轮盘。
Which should you choose to give yourself the best chance at becoming that which no one ever was?
这样的话，你应该选择哪一个轮盘，让自己更有可能成为史无前例的轮盘大师呢？
