评论
打印
It's become strangely normal to tell our kids that they're going to die from climate change.
奇怪的是，告诉我们的孩子他们将死于气候变化，这已变得异常正常。
If sea-level rise doesn’t get them, then a wildfire will, or a global famine, or crop failures.
如果海平面上升没有得到他们，那么野火、全球饥荒或农作物歉收就会消失。
Maybe a fatal heat wave, the insect apocalypse or the fishless oceans.
可能是致命的热浪、昆虫的启示录或无鱼的海洋。
These are the headlines we've all been told will be the end of humanity.
这些是我们都被告知的头条新闻将是人类的终结。
So we shouldn't be surprised, then, that young people today feel crippled with anxiety.
因此，当今的年轻人因焦虑而感到瘫痪，我们不应该感到惊讶。
A large international survey asked 10,000 young people about their attitudes to climate change.
一项大型国际调查向10,000名年轻人询问了他们对气候变化的态度。
More than half said they think humanity’s doomed; three-quarters find the future frightening; and more than one in three are hesitant to have children of their own.
超过一半的人说他们认为人类注定要失败；四分之三的人认为未来令人恐惧；超过三分之一的人对生自己的孩子犹豫不决。
Young people today truly feel like they could be the last generation.
今天的年轻人真的觉得他们可能是最后一代。
In fact, prominent activist groups actually take on this very name.
实际上，著名的激进组织实际上就是用这个名字命名的。
Now I get this feeling, I've been there.
现在我明白了这种感觉，我去过那里。
I used to feel like humanity was doomed, and despite having multiple environmental degrees, I felt completely helpless to do anything about it.
我曾经觉得人类注定要失败，尽管拥有多个环境学位，但我还是感到完全无能为力。
But I'm a data scientist, and after years poring over the data on how far humanity's come and how quickly things are now moving, my perspective on this has changed.
但我是一名数据科学家，在仔细研究了人类走了多远以及事物现在发展速度的数据之后，我对此的看法发生了变化。
I think we've got this framing upside down.
我想我们已经把这个框架颠倒过来了。
Far from being the last generation, I think we will be the first generation: the first generation to be sustainable.
我认为我们绝不是最后一代，而是第一代：第一代可持续发展。
When we think about sustainability, we might imagine humans have only become unsustainable in the very recent past, that our ancestors lived in perfect balance with nature and only recently has that been knocked off.
当我们考虑可持续性时，我们可以想象人类直到最近才变得不可持续，我们的祖先生活在与自然的完美平衡中，直到最近才被淘汰。
Unfortunately, this is not true.
不幸的是，事实并非如此。
If we're nostalgic for sustainable paths to rewind back to, there is none.
如果我们怀念可以追溯到可持续的道路，那就没有了。
The world has never been sustainable.
世界从来都不是可持续的。
Now I get that that's a controversial statement, so let me explain why.
现在我明白这是一个有争议的说法，所以让我解释一下原因。
When we think about the definition of sustainability, we might imagine something like this: "having a low environmental impact to protect future generations."
当我们考虑可持续发展的定义时，我们可能会想象这样的事情：“保护子孙后代的环境影响较小。”
And it's true, by this definition, many of our ancestors were sustainable.
的确，根据这个定义，我们的许多祖先都是可持续的。
They did have a low environmental impact.
它们对环境的影响确实很小。
But the reason they had a low environmental impact is because the populations were tiny.
但是它们之所以对环境的影响很小，是因为人口很少。
And the reason their populations were tiny is because half of children died before reaching puberty.
他们的人口很少的原因是因为有一半的儿童在进入青春期之前死亡。
Half of children died.
一半的儿童死亡。
That, then, raises the question: Is that what we really think sustainability is?
那么，这就提出了一个问题：这就是我们真正认为的可持续发展吗？
Is that the world we want to maintain and preserve, one where half of our children die?
那是我们想要维护和维护的世界，一个我们一半的孩子死亡的世界吗？
Hope your answer to that is no.
希望你对此的回答是否定的。
If we care about human suffering, we need to add another dimension to this.
如果我们关心人类的痛苦，我们就需要为此增加另一个层面。
We need to also provide a good life for everyone today.
今天，我们还需要为每个人提供美好的生活。
Now that gives our definition two halves.
现在，我们的定义分为两半。
If we fail on either half, we have failed to be sustainable.
如果我们在任何一半都失败了，那么我们就无法实现可持续发展。
That's where our ancestors were never sustainable.
那是我们的祖先从来都无法实现可持续发展的地方。
They never achieved the first half of the equation.
他们从未达到方程式的前半部分。
And over the last few centuries, the world has made amazing progress on the first half.
在过去的几个世纪中，世界在上半年取得了惊人的进步。
As we've shown at Our World in Data, child mortality is now down to four percent.
正如我们在《我们的数据世界》中所展示的那样，儿童死亡率现在已降至4％。
Extreme poverty used to be the default, now less than one in 10 people live there.
极端贫困曾经是默认的，现在只有不到十分之一的人生活在那里。
Literacy and education used to be rare; now, most children in the world get the opportunity to go to school.
识字和教育曾经很少见；现在，世界上大多数儿童都有机会上学。
