Direction：

The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.

"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

8The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.

题目讲解：

【翻译】

Monarch书店应该在店内开设一个咖伏以吸引更多的顾客并更好地和最近开设了咖伏的Regal书店展开竞争。Monarch已经在它的店址上经营了20余年，由于其对于各类型图书选择的广泛性而广为人知，并拥有庞大的消费者群体。开设咖伏显然能吸引更多的顾客。咖伏所需的空间相对较小。咖伏的空间可以通过撤销儿童书籍的柜台来获得，由于最近的一次全国调查显示10岁以下儿童在总人口中所占的比例将显著下降，因而儿童书籍很可能将不再好卖。

【分析】

1. 没有证据表明开设咖啡厅能够吸引更多客户;错误类比

2. 此外，这者也没有足够理由取消儿童书籍区的存在。

3. 其他因素：作者没有说明Regal的情况，可能面向的对象不同;也没有说Regal的咖啡屋是否吸引了更多的顾客

【提纲】

1. R开的咖啡店未必成功。R成功了M也未必成功，样本差异，应做市场调查。

2. profits。其他方法增强竞争力。

3. 全国人口情况不说明地方情况。即使孩子少了，给孩子的书未必也少。