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Next up, we're taking a look at the doom loop.
接下来，我们来看看厄运循环。
No, it's not some new roller coaster coming out.
不，这不是指什么新鲜的突变。
It's actually referring to the effects of increasing office space vacancies on cities.
它实际上指的是不断增加的空置办公空间对城市的影响。
Post-pandemic, a lot of businesses don't require their employees to come into work, letting them work from home instead.
疫情后，许多企业不要求员工来上班，而是让他们在家工作。
Great for some workers, but not so great for the people who own the office buildings that rely on companies to pay their leases to rent space.
对一些员工来说，这是好事，但对那些依靠公司支付租金租用办公大楼的人来说，就不那么好了。
The numbers show that a lot of businesses are now getting rid of their office space.
数据显示，许多企业现在正在摆脱他们的办公空间。
At the end of last year, one out of every five office spaces in America's biggest cities were empty.
去年年底，美国大城市中每五个办公空间中就有一个是空置的。
And that's leading to something called a doom loop, which could hurt these big cities.
这就导致了所谓的厄运循环，这可能会伤害到这些大城市。
In New York City, there's currently about 90 million square feet of office space available for rent, you know, including supply space.
在纽约市，目前大约有9000万平方英尺的办公空间可供出租，你知道，包括供应空间。
Just to put that in perspective, that's about the size of 35 Empire State buildings.
从这个角度来看，这大约是35座帝国大厦的大小。
Since the 2020 pandemic, office vacancy levels in New York City have risen above 20%, the highest level since the city began recording them in 1984.
自2020年疫情以来，纽约市的办公室空置率已经上升到20%以上，这是该市自1984年开始记录该数据以来的最高水平。
Everybody's affected by this issue.
每个人都受到这个问题的影响。
Property values, office values have declined.
房地产和写字楼的价值都在下降。
That lowers tax revenues, and now cities have to cut spending.
这降低了税收，现在城市不得不削减开支。
You know, when cities cut spending, the city becomes a less attractive place to live and people leave.
你知道，当城市削减开支时，城市就会变得不那么吸引人，人们就会离开。
And that aggravates the problem.
这就加剧了问题。
And we get into this vicious cycle that I've called the urban doom loop.
我们陷入了这种厄运循环，我称之为城市厄运循环。
Property taxes from commercial offices typically generate 10%of New York City's revenue, or about $3.4 billion.
来自商业办公的税收通常占纽约市财政收入的10%，约为34亿美元。
One way the city can try to recoup some of those costs and prevent a so-called doom loop is to convert some of that office space into alternative use, like apartment buildings.
该市可以尝试收回部分成本并防止所谓的厄运循环的一种方法是将一些办公空间转换为其他用途，比如公寓楼。
I didn't expect it to look so nice on the inside.
我没想到里面看起来这么漂亮。
When I arrived, I saw the outside.
当我到达时，我看到了外面。
I said, this is an office building.
我说，这是一栋办公楼。
I'm sure there was cubicles everywhere, like just the process of removing everything.
我敢肯定到处都是小隔间，如同搬走每样东西的过程。
I can't imagine what that looked like.
我无法想象那是什么样子。
I did meet a friend. He actually worked here in the building.
我遇到了一个朋友。他就在这栋楼里工作。
So I thought it was really cool knowing, like, I don't know where your office was, but, like, now my dog and myself, like, could have been my bedroom.
所以我觉得这很酷，我不知道你的办公室在哪里，但是，现在我和我的狗，这儿可以是我的卧室。
It's a 16- month lease, $4,700 a month.
这是16个月的租约，每月4700美元。
Not every building is physically suitable for a conversion, or it might be very expensive.
不是每一栋建筑都适合进行改造，否则可能会非常昂贵。
A lot of policymakers would like to have affordable housings in these buildings.
许多政策制定者希望在这些建筑中提供经济适用房。
And the problem is that the math often does not work out.
问题是，这种想法在计算后往往行不通。
These conversions are not viable if we force too much affordable housing into them, unless we can subsidize these affordable housing units.
如果我们强行改造为太多的经济适用房，那么这些改造就不可行，除非我们能补贴这些经济适用房。
And that's where a lot of cities are currently going.
这也是很多城市目前的发展方向。
They're trying to subsidize through taxes, for example, reduction in property taxes for these conversions.
他们试图通过税收补贴，例如，减少这些改造的财产税。
The sort of underbelly, if you will, of the doom loop is the demise of the urban center.
如果你愿意，这种厄运循环的弱点是城市中心的消亡。
We, being a developer, kind of view it a little bit more optimistically.
作为开发者，我们更乐观地看待它。
And it's a moment of reinvention.
这是一个重塑再造的时机。
The doom loop is also not inevitable.
厄运循环也不是不可避免的。
It depends on the responses that the policymakers have to the problems.
这取决于政策制定者对问题的反应。
And many cities have already passed legislation that stimulates conversion of office to apartment buildings.
许多城市已经通过立法，鼓励将办公楼改造成公寓楼。
