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中国内陆地区的经济增长正在超过沿海地区。上海、北京、广东等东部沿海发达地区， 在九十年代中期增速远高于百分之十，在本世纪前十年中期也是一样；而现在，增速已经比较接近百分之十，这些大城市仍然非常重要。同时，四川、内蒙古、辽宁、湖南、重庆这些欠发达的省市，过去五年的年增长速度已经在百分之十，和百分之十五之间。内蒙古的增长速度已经接近百分之二十。
China is entering a period where economic growth in inland regions is overtaking that of coastal regions. While the eastern seaboard growth engines like Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong grew at rates well in excess of 10 per cent during the mid 1990s and again during the mid 2000s, growth rates in these provinces/municipalities are now much closer to 10 per cent. These large cities will retain their importance. In comparison, lesser-developed provinces like Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan and Chongqing have been growing at between 10 and 15 per cent annually over the past five years. In the case of Inner Mongolia, growth has been closer to 20 per cent.
经济增长向内陆地区转移，表明中国政府采取新措施，激励企业在内陆省份投资建厂。在省级的层面上，有广东的"双转移"政策。制造商也在寻找比东部沿海地区更低的劳动和用地成本。其它的中心区就有了机会。重庆就是个很好的例子。重庆市和一个省差不多大，人口三千万。二零零零年，人均GDP是六百二十三美元，是全国平均水平的百分之六十六。现在，重庆人均GDP是四千零四十九美元，是全国平均水平的百分之九十二。
This shifting of growth to inland regions reflects the Chinese Government’s new incentives for industry to invest and establish operations in China’s inland provinces. These efforts are replicated at a provincial level here in Guangdong by the Double Transfer policy. Manufacturers are also seeking alternatives to the rising costs of labour and land on the eastern seaboard. This development has opened up opportunities for other centres. Chongqing is one impressive example. A province-sized “city” with a population of 30 million, Chongqing’s per capita GDP was US$623 in 2000, or 66 per cent of national average. It’s now US$4,049 or 92 per cent of national average ofUS$4,382.
随着交通、基础设施、物流条件变得更好，中国新兴城市的竞争力也变强了。中国已经有七千公里的高铁网络，到二零二零年将增加到一万六千公里。重庆本来到上海要飞一千四百公里，随着高铁网络的发展，以后不到半天就能从沿海地区到重庆。武广高铁是全世界最快的火车线路，把广州和二线城市武汉和长沙连接起来。
The competitiveness of China’s emerging cities will be boosted by improvements in transport infrastructure and logistic. China is already well-serviced by a 7,000 km high-speed rail network, which will increase to 16,000 by 2020. As the high-speed network develops, even cities like Chongqing, 1,400 km by air from Shanghai will be accessible from the coast within half a day. China’s flagship high-speed rail line, also the world’s fastest train service, connects Guangzhou with the fast-growing second-tier cities of Wuhan and Changsha.
对澳大利亚经济意味着什么
Implications for the Australian Economy
总的来说，中国经济变化很快，不仅是总量，还有增长的结构。
• 中国很快将成为世界最大的经济体。
• 过去三十年的增长模式，正在转变为，以消费为基础，由国内社保改革支撑的，一种增长模式。
• 由于快速的城市化，以及相应产生的内需，制造业会保持强健。
• 而服务业，进口和出口，增长都很快。
• 环境制约因素出现，为清洁能源产品和服务创造了新的市场。
• 研发投入也使中国迅速提升价值链。
• 相当一部分增长来源于中国的“二线”城市和新兴省份。
In summary, the Chinese economy is changing rapidly, not only in terms of its absolute size – but also in terms of the composition of its growth.
• China will soon become the world’s largest economy.
• Its growth model of the last 30 years (driven by labour intensive manufacturing exports) is changing to one based on domestic consumption, underpinned in part by domestic social security reform.
• Manufacturing will remain strong on the back of continuing rapid urbanisation and associated domestic demand.
• But the services sector, including imports and exports, is growing rapidly.
• Environmental constraints are emerging – creating new markets for clean energy goods and services.
• R&D investment is also moving China rapidly up the value chain, and
• A necessary proportion of the above growth is by and large out of China’s so-called ‘second tier’ cities and emerging provinces.
这些因素也改变着中国与其他国家经济交往的模式。这些对澳大利亚经济意味着什么呢？
These economic ‘change drivers’ are also changing the pattern of China’s economic engagement with the rest of the world. So what does all this mean for the Australian economy.
澳大利亚是亚洲第四大经济体。澳大利亚是世界第十三大经济体。澳大利亚是一个能源大国。我们是世界上第九大能源生产国，能源净出口量约占产量的三分之二。从一九八九年以来，澳大利亚的能源出口平均每年增加百分之十。澳大利亚还有成熟的农业、制造业和服务业。和中国一样，澳大利亚有许多世界一流大学。澳大利亚的金融业发展强健，管理先进、监管体系完备，受全球金融危机的影响很小。我们有全球第四大基金管理业。
Australia is the 4th largest economy in Asia. Australia is the 13th largest economy in the world. Australia is an energy superpower. We are the world’s ninth largest energy producer and with net energy exports accounting for around two-thirds of energy we produce. Since 1988-89, the value of Australia’s energy export has increased by an average of 10 per cent per year. Australia also has sophisticated agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors. Australia also has as many world class universities as China. Australia’s financial services sector is strong, robust, well managed and well regulated – and survived the Global Financial Crisis intact. We have the 4th largest funds management industry in the world.
