美国学者伯格斯滕首先提出中美G2的想法,布热津斯基也认为,中国在国际上排名第二,仅次于美国。欧洲2007年底就有民调显示,80%的受访者认为中国已经是仅次于美国的第二强国。这些都表明,中国正在从国际政治的边缘转向中心。
FRED BERGSTEN (Director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics) first suggested the idea of G2. Brzezinski believed that China is second only to the United States. A survey in Europe at the end of 2007 echoed his view as 80% of respondents believed China has became the number two world power. Clearly China is moving from the margin to the center of the world politics.
外界对于中国将成为什么样的强国也经常表达出强烈的关注。我演讲的时候经常碰到这样的问题:随着中国的日益强大,中国是否会将自己的意志强加于人?
There are some loudly expressed concerns about what kind of power China will become. I am often asked during speech occasions: as China grows stronger, would China impose its will on others?
但是,在中国国内,对“中国是强国吗”这个问题有着完全不同的看法。大部分中国人认为,中国还远远没有达到强国的地位,一个流行的说法是,外界在“忽悠”中国。
But, is China a power? The response of the Chinese people is very different. Most of them see China still as a developing country. A popular saying in Chinese is “HuYou” 忽悠 (meaning sweeping China off its feet).
今年1月,我在中国大使馆举办了一场讨论会,参加的有140多人,除了外交官,还有常驻伦敦的中资企业人士和记者。大家围绕中国的国际地位问题进行了热烈的讨论,这是我经历过最热烈的一场中国人之间的辩论了。
Last January, I hosted a debate in my Embassy. The topic was China’s international status. About 140 people came, including embassy diplomats, business people and journalists stationed in London. It was the most heated debate I’ve had with my fellow Chinese.
一位年轻人首先发言说,中国是世界居二的国家,排位仅次于美国。在场的大部分人不赞成他的意见,人们纷纷发言,列举各种数字和存在的问题,以说明中国只是一个发展中国家。当我问到,有谁赞同他的意见时,只有4个人举起手来,加上他是5个人。也就是说,140个人中不到4%的人与布热津斯基对中国的判断持相同的看法。
A young man kicked off the debate by saying that China is a world power second only to the US. He was challenged by almost the whole crowd. People spoke one after another, citing statistics and problems in China to argue that we are just another developing country. I then asked, who would agree with him? I saw only four hands up. It means only five people, including the gentleman himself were of the view, or less than 4% of the participants shared Brzezinski’s perception.
我于是问,大家认为哪个国家在世界上排名第二位?人们毫不犹豫地说,是俄罗斯。我又问:哪个国家排第三?回答:德国。第四?英国。问到第五的时候,大概有一半的人提到可能是法国,一半的人说可以是中国了。
Then I asked the crowd: which country do you think is the No 2 power in the world? They answered almost without hesitation,“Russia”. “Which is the third?”“Germany.”“The fourth?”“Great Britain.” When it came to the fifth, some said France some said it could be China.
当然,大家也认为这样简单的排列是不准确的,各国的地位和处境是一个非常复杂的问题。但是,这个讨论在一定程度上能反映中国人的心态。中国和外界对这一问题出现了两种截然不同的认识,孰是孰非?很显然,两方面的观点都能找到事实依据。