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Business
商业报道
The future of the Firm
麦肯锡的未来
McKinsey looks set to stay top of the heap in management consulting
麦肯锡看起来打算一直居于管理咨询的顶端
IT IS one of the engines of global capitalism.
麦肯锡是全球资本主义的引擎之一。
Not only does McKinsey provide advice to most of the world's leading companies.
他们不仅为大多数世界领先的公司提供建议，而且还开创了这样的想法，
It also pioneered the idea that business is a profession rather than a mere trade—and a profession that thrives on raw brainpower more than specialist industry knowledge or plain old common sense.
商业并不是单纯的贸易，而是一种职业，是依靠脑力劳动而不是专业的行业知识或是浅显易懂的旧常识。
Yet McKinsey's name has suffered a succession of blows in the past 15 years.
然而，麦肯锡的名字在过去的15年却遭受了一连串的打击。
The Firm, as it calls itself, was deeply involved in the Enron debacle:
就公司本身而言，如他们自己所说，深深的陷入了安然事件：
the energy company's boss, Jeff Skilling, was a McKinsey veteran who praised the consultancy for doing God's work, and the McKinsey Quarterly published articles on Enron as enthusiastically as Hello! runs pieces about the Beckhams.
安然能源公司的老板，也曾是麦肯锡的一名老将，杰夫·斯基林，赞扬咨询工作是上帝的使命，并在《麦肯锡季刊》上发表有关安然文章，热情满腔的好像在于贝嫂打招呼一样。
In 2010 Anil Kumar, a McKinsey consultant, admitted passing inside information to Raj Rajaratnam of Galleon, a hedge fund. Last year Rajat Gupta, a former McKinsey managing partner, was also convicted of passing inside information to Mr Rajaratnam.
在2010年，麦肯锡的顾问，阿尔尼·库马尔承认向帆船的拉贾拉特南透露了对冲基金的内部消息。去年前麦肯锡经理合伙人，拉雅·古普塔，也被怀疑向拉贾拉特南先生传递内部信息。
Life is getting tougher for professional-services firms.
如今专业服务型公司面临着越来越多的困难，
Midsized consultancies are already suffering: Monitor Group went bankrupt last year—Deloitte later bought it for 120m—and Booz & Co and Roland Berger are agonising about their futures.
去年中型咨询公司摩立特集团的破产印证了这个事实—德勤后来用了1.2亿美元买下了它—博斯公司和罗兰贝格也在烦恼自己的期货。
If the legal profession is anything to go by, worse is to come:
如果不是法律界的存在，还会有更糟糕的事发生：
Dewey & LeBoeuf collapsed last year after borrowing heavily in a dash for growth, and other elite law firms are struggling to win business.
杜威和勒伯夫为了增长而借了大量的贷款，在他们破产后，会有大量的精英律师事务所努力赢得业务。
So, are McKinsey's best days behind it?
所以，麦肯锡的黄金时光会接踵而来吗？
Two new publications offer some interesting answers.
两个新的出版刊物提供了一些有趣的答案。
The Firm, by Duff McDonald, is a generally admiring book that nevertheless asks hard questions about the organisation's future.
达夫·麦当劳的公司，普遍让人羡慕，却也仍然会考虑一些有关组织未来的难题。
Consulting on the Cusp of Disruption, by Clayton Christensen and two colleagues, is a penetrating article in the October Harvard Business Review, arguing that the comfortable world of the strategy consultancies is about to be turned upside down.
克里斯坦森和他的两位同事10月份在《哈佛商业评论》上发表了精辟的文章中提到咨询行业正处于风口浪尖，他们认为处于舒适世界的战略咨询公司即将天翻地覆。
McKinsey's success depends above all on an unimpeachable reputation for integrity.
麦肯锡的成功全部依赖于他们无可指摘的诚信声誉。
It cannot continue to serve most of the world's leading companies if its consultants are willing to spill secrets.
如果他们的顾问把内部秘密泄露了出去，他们就不能继续服务于世界领先公司。
Mr McDonald argues that the firm's size makes it impossible to avoid repeats of the Kumar problem.
麦当劳先生认为，该公司的体系使他们不可能避免库马尔问题的再次发生，
It is now a giant factory with 1,200 consultants rather than the cosy club of old.
它现在是一个拥有1200名顾问的巨大工厂，而不是一个温馨舒适的老年俱乐部。
The firm has to keep growing, not least to provide its partners with the 1.5mor so a year that they earn.
该公司将保持继续增长，但其合作伙伴必须保证每年至少为他们提供150万美元左右供他们赚取。
But every time it grows it puts its most important asset at risk.
但是每一次增长，都是一次巨大的资产风险。
McKinsey's success also depends on its ability to remain at the cutting edge of business.
麦肯锡的成功还取决于其是否有能力保持在最前沿的业务。
But in recent years it has seemed to be on the wrong cutting edge.
但是在近些年来，它似乎也是错误的尖端。
Mr McDonald points out that whereas McKinsey has led the financialisation of basic industries such as oil and gas, it has had little if any role in shaping the giants of the internet economy,
麦当劳先生指出，以麦肯锡为首的金融化产业，如石油和天然气等，如果在塑造互联网经济的巨人，
such as Apple and Google.
像苹果和谷歌一样的任何角色。
The new lords of business are engineers in hoodies, not MBAs in pinstripes.
商业化的新主人变成了穿着帽衫的工程师，而不是穿细条纹衣服的MBA硕士。
Mr Christensen focuses on a bigger subject:
克里斯滕森先生专注于一个更大的主题：
how the forces that have disrupted so many other businesses, from steel to publishing, are disrupting consulting.
这种力量是怎样毁坏了其他的商业形式，从钢铁工业到出版商，全部都需要咨询。
The big three strategy consultants—the other two are the Boston Consulting Group and Bain—are masters of opacity.
三大战略咨询—其他两个是波士顿咨询集团和贝恩—全部不透明，
But Mr Christensen argues that light is being let in on the magic.
但克里斯滕森先生认为，光芒是神奇的照射进来的，
Companies are getting better at measuring results and demanding value for money.
经过统计，参与过咨询的公司取得了更好地效果，确实物有所值。
They also have access to more business expertise than ever before: the big three have more than 50,000 living alumni.
而且他们比以前更有机会接触更多的业务专家：三巨头有超过50,000的生活校友。
The big three have been masters at bundling lots of different services into a single, high-priced package.
三巨头已经作为主人将许多不同的服务高价的绑定到一起，
But clients no longer want to pay fat fees for a bit of strategic advice from a senior partner and a lot of humdrum work from neophytes.
但是委托人应经不再想为从一个高级合作伙伴那得到一点战略建议和从一个初学者那得到许多单点无聊的工作而付出巨额费用。
Mr Christensen says low-priced competitors are beginning to dismember the consultants' business.
克里斯滕森先生说，低价位的竞争者已经开始要瓜分管理咨询的商业任务。
Eden McCallum cuts costs by deploying freelancers, most of whom once worked for the big three.
伊甸园麦卡勒姆为削减开支而雇佣的自由职业者，其中大多数曾是三巨头的成员。
BeyondCore replaces overpriced junior analysts with Big Data, crunching vast amounts of information to identify trends.
超越核心用巨大的数据库和大量的信息取代价格过高的初级分析师，来确定趋势。
McKinsey clearly faces a more difficult market than it is used to.
显然麦肯锡现在面对着一个比过去更加困难的市场。
But it has overcome serious challenges before—such as in the 1980s, when it lost the intellectual high ground to BCG and then Bain before regaining it.
但在20世纪80年代，在它落后于BCG和贝恩，失去了智力方面的制高点时，它克服了严峻的挑战。
The firm is fixing some of the problems from the Gupta era.
它从笈多时代开始就一直在修复这些问题。
It has elected two successive managing directors, Ian Davis and Dominic Barton, who have worked hard to restore its professional ethos.
它曾经有两位成功的董事总经理，伊恩·戴维斯和鲍达民，他们一直在努力恢复公司的专业精神气质。
Mr Barton urges companies to embrace long-term capitalism rather than quarterly capitalism and corporate responsibility rather than financial engineering: the very opposite of the Enron-era McKinsey's gospel.
巴顿先生敦促企业去拥抱长期的资本主义而不是季度的资本主义，去承担企业的责任而不是金融工程：与安然时代的麦肯锡福音刚好相反。
Old boys everywhere
老男孩无处不在
McKinsey also has two huge assets: talent and knowledge.
麦肯锡也有两个巨大的资产：人才和知识。
It retains an unrivalled ability to recruit hundreds of clever young people and turn them into an army of problem-solving worker ants.
它保留了无以伦比的能力，超募了数百个聪明异禀的年轻人，然后把它们变成一队解决麻烦的工蚁。
It also has an enviable network of alumni, many of whom are happy to hire their old employer: in 2011 more than 150 ex-McKinseyites were running companies with more than 1 billion in annual sales.
它也有一个令人羡慕的校友网络，其中许多人都乐意聘请他们的老雇主：在2011年，有超过150个前麦肯锡员工经营了自己公司，总年销售额超过了100亿美元。
The firm has also invested heavily in knowledge for decades:
该公司还在几十年里对知识投入巨资：
perhaps no other organisation has as much interesting data on global capitalism.
大概没有其他组织对于全球资本主义有这么多有趣的数据了。
Though lesser firms may be facing disruption, McKinsey dispenses a special sort of consultorial fairy-dust that is hard to replicate, and as much in demand as ever.
即使较小的企业可能会面临破产，麦肯锡却省却了一些特殊的，难以描述的，却与以往一样有尽可能多追求的咨询童话。
The global ruling class is seized with a toxic combination of status-obsession and status-insecurity.
全球统治阶级正在被一种混合的痴迷状态和不安全状态困扰，
Decision-makers also fear being swept away by one of Mr Christensen's disruptive forces.
决策者也担心被克里斯滕森先生所说的破坏性力量一扫而空，
They seek constant reassurance and reaffirmation from prestigious institutions.
他们寻求那些颇负盛名的机构来求得安慰和重申。
McKinsey knows better than almost anyone how to exploit this peculiar mindset.
麦肯锡比任何其他人都懂得如何利用这种奇特的心态，
That will guarantee the Firm a solid future, even if no one can prove that its advice actually does any good.
这将保证坚实的未来，即使没有人能证明这些咨询建议确实有什么好处。
