Limited skies

Expanding airport capacity in the south-east is a bet on the future of travel

EVEN before Sir Howard Davies, an economist mulling where to put extra airport capacity in Britain, rejected the idea of building a big new hub in the Thames Estuary, the backlash had begun. Boris Johnson, the mayor of London and an enthusiastic supporter of the Thames plan, spluttered in advance, then branded the decision “myopic”. NIMBYs opposing the expansion of Heathrow and Gatwick groaned, knowing that the remaining options all involve building or extending runways at one of those airports. Sir Howard's final recommendation, due in 2015, is sure to run into heavy fire. To make matters worse, he and his team must hazard a guess about the future of air travel.

Heathrow's shiny new Terminal 2, which opened in June, is full of expensive shops and restaurants run by Michelin-starred cooks to entice rich passengers. At Gatwick, recent improvements reflect its popularity with holidaygoers: a wider lane at a spruced-up security gate has been set aside for families, while an area in the southern terminal is now reserved for elderly passengers, with comfy seats and a small duty-free shop.

The airports' managers also hold entirely different views about the way the airline industry will develop, and its place in the broader economy. Much of the argument for expanding Heathrow rests on the idea that hub airports are, and will remain, vital. Without further expansion, boosters argue, fewer flights to far-flung places such as Wuhan and Xiamen will be available to businessmen. If the capacity crunch persists, domestic flights are more likely to be delayed or cancelled. European airports will pick up those passengers instead. “That's our GDP leaking out,” says Jon Proudlove, the general manager of air-traffic control at Heathrow.

Not surprisingly, Gatwick takes a different view. Over the past ten years the growth of low-cost airlines has been explosive, points out Sir Roy McNulty, chairman of the Gatwick group. People are travelling in different ways, with more “self-connecting” to keep costs down. Although connections with emerging markets are important, Europe and North America will remain Britain's largest trading partners, he argues. London will be a destination in its own right, but a British hub may not be able to compete with the mega-hubs emerging in the Middle East.

Boosters for a second runway at Gatwick point to the rising number of orders for aircraft which could offer “hub-bypass” services, flying people directly from one city to another. British Airways (BA), the largest British carrier, has ordered 18 Airbus A350s and 36 Boeing 787s, which efficiently ferry a smaller number of people over longer distances, making some secondary markets more viable. But betting on orders is tough: BA also has six huge A380s on order, each of which flies around 500 passengers between congested hubs, to add to six already in stock.

Sir Howard and his team will have to base their final recommendation on a good deal of guesswork about future trends that perplex people in the airline industry. That will make it easier for politicians to argue over their decision—particularly the ones who answer to the residents of west London, rattled by jets arriving at and leaving Heathrow. And as Sir Howard considers his options, both Heathrow and Gatwick grow ever busier.