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Between 1967 and 1979 the share of 20- and 21-year-old women who expected to be employed at 35 jumped from 35% to 80%.
1967至1979年间，20至21岁的女性中，预期35岁就业的女性比例从35%跃升至80%。
Expectations also matter for employers.
心理预期对雇主来说也很重要。
Although the pay gap narrowed in the early 1900s, the portion driven by discrimination, rather than job type, grew.
尽管工资差距在20世纪初缩小了，但由歧视而不是工作类型造成的工资差距有所扩大。
An important factor, says Ms Goldin, was changes in how payment was decided.
戈尔丁表示，一个重要因素是什么决定了薪酬多少。
Wages used to be tied to output—how many clothes were knitted, for instance.
过去，工资与产量挂钩，例如织了多少件衣服。
But after industrialisation, workers were increasingly paid periodically, in part because measuring an individual’s output became trickier.
但在工业化之后，工人的工资发放周期日益变长，部分原因是衡量一个人的产出变得更加困难。
Therefore more ambiguous factors grew in importance, such as ideas about how long a worker would stay on the job.
因此，一些更模糊的因素变得越来越重要，比如工人会在岗位上工作多久。
This penalised women, who were expected to quit when they had children.
这对女性十分不利，人们预期女性有了孩子后就会辞职。
Since around 2005 the wage gap has hardly budged.
自2005年左右以来，工资差距几乎没有变化。
Here Ms Goldin’s work questions popular narratives that continue to blame wage discrimination.
对于这个现象，戈尔丁的研究对那些继续将此归咎于工资歧视的流行说法提出了质疑。
Instead, in a book published in 2021, Ms Goldin blames “greedy” jobs, such as being a consultant or lawyer, which offer increasing returns to long (and uncertain) hours.
相反，在2021年出版的一本书中，戈尔丁将此归咎于“贪婪”工作，比如顾问或律师等，这些工作的工作时间越长（且越不稳定），报酬就越高。
She explains how such work interacts with the so-called parenthood penalty.
她解释了这种工作如何与所谓的“亲职惩罚”相互作用。
“Let’s say there are two lawyers, equally brilliant,” explains Ms Goldin.
戈尔丁解释说：“假设有两名律师，他们同样地精明强干。”
Once children arrive, “they realise that they both can’t work these gruelling hours.”
一旦有了孩子，“他们就意识到他们都无法再做这么繁重的工作”。
Women spend more time raising children, which is why the gender pay gap tends to open up after a first child.
女性在养育孩子上花的时间更多，这就是为什么在生了第一个孩子之后，性别收入差距往往会扩大。
Both partners could take on less demanding jobs, but then the couple would earn less as a unit, she explains.
她解释说，夫妻双方都可以从事更轻松的工作，但这样一来，夫妻俩的整体收入就会减少。
Ms Goldin’s research holds lessons for economists and policymakers.
戈尔丁的研究为经济学家和政策制定者提供了借鉴。
For the former group, it shows the importance of history.
对于经济学家来说，这表明了历史的重要性。
Ms Goldin’s prize is the first economics Nobel awarded for work largely in economic history since Robert Fogel, her former adviser, triumphed in 1993.
戈尔丁是自她的导师罗伯特·福格尔于1993年获诺奖以来，第一位主要因经济史方面的工作而获诺贝尔经济学奖的人。
Before Ms Goldin’s research, many academics considered questions about historical gender pay gaps to be unanswerable because of a paucity of data.
在戈尔丁之前，许多学者认为，由于缺乏数据，有关历史性别薪酬差距的问题是无法回答的。
Yet she has repeatedly demonstrated that digging through historical archives allows researchers to credibly answer big questions previously thought beyond their reach.
然而，戈尔丁一再证明，挖掘历史档案可以让研究人员对那些他们以为无法回答的重大问题提供可信的答案。
For policymakers, Ms Goldin’s research demonstrates that fixes for gender inequality vary depending on time and place.
对于政策制定者来说，戈尔丁的研究表明，性别不平等的解决办法因时因地而异。
In early 20th-century America, companies barred married women from obtaining or retaining employment.
在20世纪初的美国，公司禁止已婚女性获得或保留工作。
A policy response came with the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which banned such behaviour.
随着1964年的《民权法案》出台，这种行为被禁止。
Today, wage gaps persist because of greedy jobs and parental norms, rather than because of straightforward employer discrimination.
如今，工资差距之所以持续存在，是因为贪婪的工作和亲职规范，而不是因为直接的雇主歧视。
In the past, Ms Goldin has suggested more flexibility in the workplace could be a solution to the problem.
戈尔丁过去曾表示，更多的工作灵活性可能是解决这个问题的办法。
Perhaps working out how to achieve it will be her next act.
或许，研究如何实现这一目标将是她的下一步行动。
