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Yahoo is dressed like a high-growth company. But it may soon have to revert to humbler garb.
雅虎(Yahoo)打扮得像一家高增长公司。但它可能很快就得现出原形。
Much of the Internet company's value rests on its 24% stake in Alibaba. Investors seeking exposure to the unlisted Chinese e-commerce juggernaut have flocked to Yahoo's shares. These now sport a tech-like multiple of 25.5 times 2014 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, about double that of Google.
这家互联网公司的价值有很大一部分在于其所持24%的阿里巴巴股份。想要投资于这家未上市中国电子商务巨头的投资者纷纷买进雅虎投票。依据雅虎2014年预期息税折旧摊销前收益计算的市盈率目前为25.5倍，与科技公司估值相当，差不多是谷歌(Google)的两倍。
But when Alibaba completes its initial public offering, expected next year, investors must ask whether Yahoo still is worth owning without its glitzy wardrobe.
但阿里巴巴预计明年将完成首次公开募股(IPO)，届时投资者肯定会问，在雅虎失去了阿里巴巴股份这一眩目的行头之后，它是否仍然值得拥有。
The decline of the Internet portal as the most efficient way to reach the greatest number of users and the rise of programmatic ad buying, which is site-agnostic, have created permanent challenges for Yahoo's display advertising business, according to Pivotal Research. Meanwhile, Yahoo's share of search, as tracked by comScore, continues to deteriorate, dropping to 11.2% in November from 12.1% a year earlier.
据市场研究机构Pivotal Research，门户网站曾经是影响最大用户群体的最有效途径，但这种途径出现衰落，不论站点的程序化广告购买的兴起给雅虎的展示广告业务带来了永久的挑战。与此同时，comScore跟踪的雅虎在搜索市场占据的份额持续下降，11月降至11.2%，上年同期为12.1%。
Since Marissa Mayer joined Yahoo as chief executive in July 2012 she has pursued various strategies aimed at driving traffic to the site and boosting its advertising business.
梅耶尔(Marissa Mayer)自2012年7月加入雅虎任首席执行长以来，实施了众多旨在提高网站访问量、提振广告业务的策略。
Some of these efforts appear to have paid off. In September, Yahoo's global traffic, including desktop and mobile, returned to levels unseen since 2011, reversing two years of declines. And traffic to Yahoo's sites from desktop users bested Google's in August, September and October, ranking No. 1 on comScore's list of Top 50 properties. Mobile growth also has been significant, with more than 400 million monthly active users, up from 200 million at the end of 2012.
其中一些举措似乎产生了效果。今年9月，雅虎包括电脑和移动设备的全球访问量恢复到2011年以来的最高水平，扭转了延续两年的衰落势头。同时，雅虎网站来自电脑用户的访问量在今年8月、9月和10月超过谷歌，在comScore的网站访问量50强排行榜上排名第一。移动访问量的增长也十分可观，月度活跃用户超过4亿，较2012年底的2亿大大增长。
Yet that isn't doing much for Yahoo's revenue. In the third quarter, display revenue fell 7%, year on year, to $470 million as search revenue dropped 8% to $435 million. Only 'other revenue,' which includes royalties from Alibaba, rose 5% to $234 million. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, display and search revenue were down 10% and 9%, respectively, with other revenue up 8%.
然而这种情况对于雅虎的营收并没有起到太大作用。雅虎第三季度展示广告收入同比下降7%，至4.7亿美元，搜索业务收入下降8%，至4.35亿美元。只有包括阿里巴巴支付的许可费用在内的“其他收入”增加5%，至2.34亿美元。截至今年9月30日的九个月，展示广告和搜索业务收入分别下降10%和9%，其他收入增长8%。
Consensus estimates for 2014 suggest a slight improvement, showing display and search revenue roughly flat and up 7%, respectively. Ebitda, meanwhile, is expected to increase by a modest 3.7%. Adding more personalized user data to its Tumblr ad inventory could be one source of gains, Pivotal says. But it remains to be seen if the turnaround is real.
对2014年的一致估计显示雅虎的情况将略有好转，展示广告收入持平，搜索业务收入增长7%。与此同时，息税折旧摊销前收益预计将小幅增长3.7%。Pivotal说，雅虎在Tumblr广告目录中加入更为个性化的用户数据可能是一个收益来源。但好转能否真正实现还有待观察。
Analysts say Yahoo's core business should be valued at around four to six times 2014 Ebitda -- more like a print media asset. It is difficult to say where that business trades now because so much rests on Alibaba's IPO. Estimates of Alibaba's value range from $100 billion to $190 billion. To complicate calculations, Yahoo must sell 40% of its stake at the IPO, with the rest to be sold at its discretion, theoretically for more if Alibaba's stock rises.
分析师们说，雅虎的核心业务价值约为2014年息税折旧摊销前收益的四到六倍――更类似于平面媒体的估值。很难判断这块业务目前的价值，因为很大程度上将取决于阿里巴巴的IPO。阿里巴巴的估值在1,000亿美元至1,900亿美元。令计算更复杂的是，雅虎必须在IPO之时出售其所持股份的40%，其余部分由雅虎自己决定是否出售，理论上如果阿里巴巴股价上涨，则能以更高价格卖出。
In one scenario, UBS estimates Alibaba will list at a $100 billion valuation, which will then climb to $160 billion.
其中一种设想的情况是，瑞银(UBS)估计阿里巴巴将以1,000亿美元的估值上市，随后将攀升至1,600亿美元。
Using this assumption, if Yahoo sold the remaining 60% of its stake at that price, its total after-tax proceeds could be $20.3 billion, or about $20 a share. Yahoo's 35% stake in Yahoo Japan adds roughly another $7 a share after tax.
按照这种假想，如果雅虎以上涨后的阿里巴巴股价出售其所持的其余60%股份，其税后总收益可能达到203亿美元，约合每股20美元。雅虎所持的35%雅虎日本(Yahoo Japan)股份会让每股税收收益再增加大约7美元。
Taking that $27 and net cash of $3.11 a share on Yahoo's books at the end of the third quarter off the current share price leaves $10.96 a share. That implies a $11.1 billion valuation for Yahoo's core business, or 7.1 times 2014 Ebitda -- pricey relative to analyst models. And that likely understates the multiple, since Alibaba's high-margin royalty payments would need to be factored out of Yahoo's Ebitda.
从雅虎当前股价中减去上面计算出来的27美元以及雅虎第三季度末账面上的每股现金3.11美元，得到的是每股10.96美元。这意味着雅虎核心业务估值为1,110亿美元，以2014年预期息税折旧摊销前收益计算的市盈率为7.1倍――相比分析师假定的情况来说过高了。而且这还有可能低估了这个倍数，因为阿里巴巴支付的高利润许可费需要从雅虎的息税折旧摊销前收益中剔除。
Investors can only guess at what Yahoo will look like underneath its designer wardrobe. But chances are it will look more like Gannett than Google.
投资者只能猜测雅虎光彩夺目的外表下面是何种真面目。但它很可能更类似于媒体公司Gannett，而不是像谷歌这样的互联网公司。
