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Japan's inflation, as measured by consumer prices, is rising steadily about a year after a policy shift by the Bank of Japan -- yet few economists believe it will reach the bank's inflation target by the mid-2015 deadline.
日本央行(Bank of Japan)政策转型已时过一年，以消费者价格衡量的日本通货膨胀正在稳步上升。但很少有经济学家相信，日本通胀率将在2015年年中的最后期限之前达到央行目标。
One reason is their different understanding of what the yen's recent stability means to the price outlook.
其中一个原因是，他们对日圆近期的持稳对物价前景意味着什么有着不同的看法。
Core consumer prices are getting closer to the central bank's 2% target. Data Friday showed they rose 1.3% in January from a year earlier, the eighth straight month they've risen. The core gauge tracks a basket of goods and services but excludes fresh food, whose costs are volatile.
核心消费者价格指数(CPI)升幅日益接近央行2%的目标。周五公布的数据显示，日本1月核心CPI同比上升1.3%，为连续第八个月上升。核心CPI指标跟踪一篮子商品和服务价格，但不包括波动较大的生鲜食品价格。
But economists aren't so impressed by the data. Roughly half of the current inflation in consumer products is due to the dramatic drop in the yen from late 2012 to mid-2013, they say. That has sharply inflated the costs of imports, which have partly been passed on to consumers.
但经济学家并不太看重上述数据。他们说，当前的消费者物价通胀幅度有一半都是2012年年底-2013年年中日圆汇率暴跌所致。日圆汇率下挫大幅推高了进口价格，进口价格上涨又部分地被转嫁给消费者。
Significantly, core CPI does include energy, where the yen effect has been particularly acute. According to the BOJ's import price data, the costs of liquid natural gas -- now a main resource in Japan for generating power -- were 17% higher in January in yen terms.
值得注意的是，核心CPI包括能源价格，而能源价格受日圆汇率波动的影响非常大。根据日本央行进口价格数据，1月份以日圆计的液化天然气价格上涨了17%。目前液化天然气是日本主要发电资源。
The Japanese also saw sharp rises in prices of foreign-made home electronics, which they increasingly import: Prices of washing machines were up 13%, while prices of audio equipment and refrigerators both rose 16%.
日本进口量越来越大的外国产家电的价格也出现大幅上涨：洗衣机价格上涨了13%，音响设备和冰箱的价格均上涨了16%。
Barring another major drop in the yen, however, those exchange-rate effects will start to fade from this spring. Friday morning, the yen was trading around Y102 to the U.S. dollar -- about the same level it was last May.
不过，除非日圆再大幅下挫，否则日圆汇率波动的影响将从今年春季开始减弱。周五前市，美元/日圆报102日圆左右，与去年5月份的水平大致相同。
'Core prices will peak out' by March, said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. Core CPI will then fall over the summer, he said, ultimately reaching 0.7%-0.8% by September.
第一生命经济研究所(Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)首席经济学家Toshihiro Nagahama表示，核心物价升幅将在3月份见顶，今年夏季将出现下降，9月份之前最终回落至0.7%-0.8%。
BOJ officials see things differently. They expect core inflation to stay around 1.3% until summer and then pick up pace as a stronger domestic economy creates new inflationary pressures to offset the fading currency effect.
日本央行官员的看法不同。他们预计核心通胀率在夏季之前将保持在1.3%上下的水平，然后再加速上升，因为更为强劲的国内经济将产生新的通胀压力，从而抵消汇率方面推动力量减弱的影响。
As evidence of improved domestic demand, BOJ officials point to 'core-core' consumer prices, which exclude food and energy. They rose 0.7% in both December and January, their highest level since 1998.
为了说明国内需求的改善，日本央行举了“核心的核心（即不包括食品和能源价格的）消费物价”的证据。这种消费物价去年12月和今年1月都上涨了0.7%，为1998年以来的最高涨幅。
The problem, economists say, is that 40% of the recent core-core increase is due to a one-off rise last year in accident insurance costs and public services.
经济学家们说，问题是近期核心的核心物价升幅中，有40%都是去年一次性的意外险价格和公共服务价格上升所致。
'Those increases had little to do with demand and supply,' said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.
农林中金综合研究所(Norinchukin Research Institute)首席经济学家狩野阳(Takeshi Minami)表示，这种涨幅与供求的关系不大。
Another issue is a sales tax increase that takes effect in April. Sellers have incentives to raise prices before the tax hike to take advantage of consumers' expected rush buying. That should create a bump in inflation -- but economists say it, too, is likely to be only temporary if demand drops off as expected after the tax takes effect.
另外一个问题是将于4月实施的销售税上调。卖家想借预期中的消费者抢购之机在销售税上调之前提高价格。这应该会制造通胀，但经济学家说，如果销售税真正上调之后需求如预期般下降，那么这种通胀可能也将是暂时的。
