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China is in no hurry to halt a recent slide in the yuan despite new U.S. pressure to get Beijing to strengthen the Chinese currency against the dollar.
中国并不急于终止人民币近期的跌势，尽管美国重新开始对中国施压，要求中国引导人民币兑美元升值。
Interviews with a Chinese central-bank official, bankers and analysts suggest Beijing won't move in the near term to halt the currency's weakening. The yuan has fallen 2.3% this year, making the tightly controlled currency the worst-performing in Asia against the dollar, according to HSBC Holdings PLC.
对一位中国央行官员以及一些银行家和分析师的采访揭示出，中国政府近期内不会采取行动终止人民币的跌势。据汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC.)称，人民币兑美元今年迄今已累计下跌2.3%，在亚洲货币中表现最差。
The drop prompted a senior official at the U.S. Treasury Department on Monday to warn that Washington is looking closely at whether Beijing's efforts to devalue the yuan represent a shift in policy that could start a round of competitive devaluations. It would 'raise serious concerns,' the Treasury official said, if China is backing away from making the yuan a more market-based currency.
人民币的下跌已促使美国财政部一位高级官员在周一警告称，美国政府正密切关注中国近期允许人民币贬值的做法是否意味着汇率政策的转变，这可能会引发一轮竞争性货币贬值。这位官员称，如果中国在人民币汇率市场化进程中开倒车，将引发外界的严重担忧。
But Beijing considers the drop part of its effort to drive out short-term speculators who see the yuan's strengthening as a sure bet, said the central-bank official and others. That makes Beijing unlikely to act unless the yuan, also known as the renminbi, moves too sharply.
但这位中国央行官员和其他人士表示，中国引导人民币走软意在把押注人民币单边升值的短线投机者挤出市场。因此，除非人民币波动过大，否则中国政府不大可能采取行动。
'Part of the central bank's job is to maintain stability in the renminbi's exchange rate,' said an official at the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank. 'Barring a sharp decline that could destabilize the country's economy, the PBOC is unlikely to intervene to make it higher,'
中国央行的一位官员称，中国央行的部分职能就是维持人民币汇率稳定，除非人民币出现可能破坏中国经济稳定的剧烈跌势，否则，央行不大可能入市干预推动人民币走强。
The drop also reflects investor concern about a further slowdown in the Chinese economy, say analysts and investors. It comes after the central bank last month doubled the range in which the yuan is permitted to trade on a daily basis, which has exacerbated the slide spurred by Beijing.
分析人士和投资者说，人民币走低还反映出投资者担心中国经济会进一步放缓。中国央行上个月将人民币汇率日交易区间扩大一倍，加剧了政府引导的人民币跌势。
'Market participants have taken this as a cue to sell yuan as they became increasingly concerned over recent signs of slowing economic growth,' said Zhang Ming, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, a government think tank.
中国政府智库中国社科院高级经济学家张明称，市场参与者将此作为卖出人民币的信号，因为他们对最近显示出的经济增长放缓迹象越来越担心。
The yuan strengthened slightly Tuesday, closing in Beijing at 6.1968 yuan per dollar, compared with 6.2123 on Friday. China's markets were closed Monday for a public holiday.
人民币周二小幅走高，美元兑人民币收报6.1968元，上周五收报6.2123元。中国汇市周一因公共假日休市。
Longer term, investors and analysts widely believe China will allow the currency to resume its rise against the dollar, adding to a more-than-33% strengthening since 2005. They cite expected capital inflows, the potential for an improving economy later in the year and concern about producing a backlash in Washington that could cause congressional action to penalize China.
从中长期看，投资者和分析人士普遍认为，中国将允许人民币重拾兑美元的升势，在2005年以来已经累计逾33%涨幅的基础上进一步推高人民币币值。他们给出的原因包括，预期资本流入、今年晚些时候经济可能好转以及担心在华盛顿引发的强烈反对可能导致美国国会对中国采取惩罚行动。
'I do not believe that the Chinese government has changed its policy of a gradually appreciating yuan, so I would expect an appreciating bias into the year-end,' said Suanjin Tan, a Singapore-based fixed-income portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc.
贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)驻新加坡固定收益投资组合经理Suanjin Tan称，他认为中国政府没有改变允许人民币逐步升值的政策，所以他预计年底前人民币将升值。
But its current stance is likely to make the issue a lingering source of contention between Beijing and Washington. The U.S. and other Western countries have long urged China to let the yuan rise at a faster pace. A weaker yuan, they have said, gives Chinese exporters an unfair edge over their foreign competitors.
不过中国当前的政策立场可能令这一问题成为中美政府间挥之不去的争论根源。美国和其他西方国家长时间来反复敦促中国加快人民币升值步伐。他们称，人民币走软令中国出口商在和外国企业竞争时获得了不公平的优势。
People familiar with the PBOC's thinking have argued that depreciation is needed to drive out short-term speculators who expect steady appreciation and have used different methods to buy yuan, putting even more pressure on the currency to appreciate.
熟悉中国央行想法的人士称，人民币需要贬值才能将那些押注人民币单边升值的短线投机者挤出市场。这些投机者利用各种方式买入人民币，这进一步加大了人民币的升值压力。
An influx of speculative capital last year--driven in part by investors betting on yuan-denominated assets--complicated China's efforts to manage the economy, contributing to property bubbles and injecting excess cash into the financial system. One sign of the PBOC's heavy intervention to control the yuan's rise: China's foreign-exchange reserves grew nearly $510 billion last year, to $3.8 trillion, as the central bank bought dollars with yuan and tried to slow the appreciation of the Chinese currency.
去年投机性资本流入（部分由押注人民币计价资产的投机者带来）加大了中国政府管理经济的难度，吹大了房地产泡沫并向金融体系注入过多的流动性。中国央行大幅介入限制人民币涨幅的迹象之一是：去年中国外汇储备规模增加近5,100亿美元，至3.8万亿美元。中国央行用人民币买入美元，以试图放缓人民币的升值速度。
'The Chinese authorities will remain cautious in the near term regarding any potential resurgence in speculative appetite for the yuan,' said Paul Mackel, head of Asian currency research at HSBC in Hong Kong.
汇丰(HSBC)驻香港亚洲外汇研究主管Paul Mackel表示，中国政府短期内将保持谨慎，以防止人民币投机性需求再次抬头。
China hopes to convince investors that the yuan could just as easily weaken as strengthen, giving them pause when they consider piling on bullish bets that could add upward pressure on the currency. Greater two-way fluctuation, they maintain, is necessary before China can give the market a bigger role in determining the yuan's value--a move the government must make to fulfill its ambitions that the yuan become an important global currency.
中国政府希望让投资者相信，人民币升值和贬值都是很正常的事，希望投资者在考虑大举押注人民币升值前三思。对中国政府来说，加大人民币双向波动的幅度是提高汇率市场化程度的必要条件；而中国要实现人民币国际化的雄心壮志，则必须实现汇率市场化。
Chinese officials also have argued in the past year that the yuan is approaching its fair-market value, meaning that investors shouldn't expect it to increase in value much more. As evidence, they point to the country's shrinking trade surpluses.
中国官员去年反复说过，人民币已经接近其公允市场价值，这意味着人民币不会大幅升值。官员以中国贸易顺差收窄的例子来证明这一观点。
The PBOC started intervening in late February to drive down the yuan's value against the dollar. It guided its parity rate--the daily rate at which the yuan is allowed to trade 2% either way--lower against the dollar. It also instructed banks to purchase the dollar, according to traders and people familiar with the central bank's thinking.
中国央行今年2月底开始出手干预，推动人民币兑美元下跌。中国央行下调了其每日公布的人民币对美元汇率中间价（人民币汇率可以围绕这一中间价上下浮动2%）。据交易员和熟悉中国央行想法的人士称，中国央行还指导银行买入美元。
Lingling Wei / Bob Davis
Lingling Wei / Bob Davis
