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China's financial system is about to be tested with $420 billion-worth of trust products coming due this year as worries grow that many debt-laden companies don't have the cash to pay back investors.
随着规模达4,200亿美元的信托产品在今年到期，中国的金融系统将面临考验。当前市场越来越担心，很多负债累累的公司没有现金来偿还投资者。
May is the start of a peak period for maturing trust products, which lend money from investors to areas like the property sector or industries shunned by banks, such as coal. These trusts have been a fast-growing source of credit in China. Nomura estimates that the crunch will come in third quarter through September, when one trillion yuan ($160 billion) of trust products are due, up from 694 billion yuan in the first quarter.
今年5月份开始将迎来信托产品的到期高峰。据野村(Nomura)估计，到期高峰将出现在第三季度，届时将有人民币1万亿元（约合1,600亿美元）信托产品到期，高于第一季度的人民币6,940亿元。信托产品将投资者的资金借给房地产行业以及像煤矿这类无法从银行业获得贷款的行业。信托业成了中国一个迅速增长的信贷来源。
Trusts have so far avoided major defaults, although in January one came close when it was unable to pay back creditors after lending to a struggling coal miner. It was bailed out at the last minute.
虽然1月份有一项信托产品因无法向债权人偿债而濒临违约，但信托业到目前为止尚未出现重大的违约。这项将资金借给一个处于困境的煤矿的信托产品在最后时刻获得救助。
The interconnected nature of the financial system means any pain will be closely watched in case it spills over to the banking system and the broader economy, which is already struggling with a slowdown. China's gross domestic product growth in the first quarter was the slowest since mid-2012, at 7.4%.
由于金融系统相互联系，因此任何的风吹草动都会受到密切关注，以防其影响蔓延到银行系统和整体经济。中国经济目前已经放缓，第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.4%，为2012年年中以来的最慢增速。
Defaults are a concern as investors may shun new offerings from trust companies even if high returns are offered, while it may be difficult to roll over existing products.
违约是一个令人担心的问题，因为就算回报率很高，投资者们可能也会避开信托公司的新发产品，同时滚转现有产品可能也会面临困难。
'A lot of these trusts will come to grief at the end of the day,' said Templeton Emerging Markets Group's executive chairman Mark Mobius, who manages more than $47 billion-worth of emerging market stocks at Franklin Templeton Investments. 'We've got to figure how many of these trusts will go under. Nobody really knows how bad these trust products are, and what they will depend on to roll them over, if they need to be rolled over.'
邓普顿新兴市场集团(Templeton Emerging Markets Group)执行董事长麦思(Mark Mobius)说，许多信托公司最后都会陷入困境。他说：“我们必须估算出有多少信托公司将破产，没有人知道这些信托产品有多糟糕，也没有人知道他们将如何滚转现有产品。邓普顿新兴市场集团通过富兰克林邓普顿投资(Franklin Templeton Investments)管理着超过470亿美元新兴市场股票。
There has been explosive growth in the trust industry in recent years, with the amount of outstanding trust assets under management at 11.7 trillion yuan at the end of March, according to China Trustee Association, a government backed industry group. That is more than quadruple the amount from four years ago.
近些年来中国信托行业呈现出爆炸式增长。由政府支持的行业组织中国信托业协会(China Trustee Association)的数据显示，截至3月底，信托资产余额大约为人民币11.7万亿元，比四年前增加了三倍多。
The boom for trusts coincides with a hefty buildup in Chinese debt at the corporate and local government level. Standard & Poor's puts the country's overall debt at 213% of gross domestic product in 2013, up from 140% in 2007.
信托业的繁荣正值中国企业、地方政府债台高筑之际。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)称，2013年中国整体负债水平占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例达213%，2007年为140%。
The trust companies operate as conduits, raising money to invest in assets ranging from bonds and stocks to aged wine and diamonds, or to making loans. Trusts raise about a quarter of their funds from wealthy individuals and companies. The rest comes from banks, which raise funds by selling wealth management products to individual savers.
信托公司充当桥梁的角色，将筹集到的资金投资到债券、股票、陈年老酒以及钻石等资产，或者直接向外放贷。信托公司从富有个人以及公司筹得约四分之一的资金，其余则来自银行。银行业通过向个人储户销售理财产品来获得资金。
In both cases, the trust company doesn't take on the risk itself. But if investments go south, the trusts might be prevailed upon to cover any losses from their own wafer thin capital buffers.
在上述两种融资方式中，信托公司本身都不用承担风险。但是若投资出现亏损，信托公司可能会被迫利用自身规模不大的资金缓冲来弥补损失。
The trust sector has faced the prospect of borrowers not being able to repay their loans before. In mid-2012, trusts were facing a wave of maturing loans to property developers that they were banned from rolling over. Back then, China's four asset management corporations--or bad banks--and homegrown private equity investors stepped in as lenders of last resort, keeping the developers afloat and bailing out the trusts.
信托行业此前已经出现过借贷人无法偿还贷款的可能性。在2012年年中，信托行业曾出现过一次房地产开发商贷款到期但不能展期的情况。当时，中国四大资产管理公司（即坏账银行）以及中国私募股权投资者“挺身而出”，成为最终放贷人，使得这些开发商得以幸免于难，同时也拯救了信托公司。
The bad banks haven't given up on the trust sector, but they can't be relied upon to provide the same safety net as last time. A large part of the trust industry's business involves extending loans on behalf of the lender in a way that it doesn't appear on the balance sheet. This opacity has led to uncertainty over the extent of the banking system's exposure to trust products, which in turn has contributed to China's banks trading at historically low valuations.
坏账银行还没有将信托行业弃之不顾，但是信托业不能依赖这些银行能够像2012年时一样提供同样的安全网。信托业的主要业务包括代表银行放出贷款，这些贷款不会反映在资产负债表上。这种不透明性令银行系统的信托产品敞口规模存在不确定性，而这一情况也反过来拖累银行股的估值跌至历史低点。
China's largest banks, known collectively as the Big Four, are trading at price to book valuations near historic lows. Stocks prices have suffered too, with these big banks all down this year. Agricultural Bank of China shares have lost the most of the four banks in 2014, down 15.5% year-to-date, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's are second-worst off, down 11.6%.
中国四大国有商业银行的市净率（即股价与每股帐面价值的比）目前都接近历史低点。这些银行的股价也受到拖累，今年以来均累计下跌。在四大银行中，中国农业银行股份有限公司 (Agricultural Bank Of China Ltd., 简称：农业银行 )股价今年迄今为止的跌幅最大，累计下跌15.5%。中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 简称：工商银行)表现第二差，其股价累计下跌11.6%。
'We don't think there will be systematic collapse in China and valuations are very attractive when you look at the financials,' said Medha Samant, investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, which managed assets worth $270 billion as of Dec. 31.
富达国际投资(Fidelity Worldwide Investment)的投资总监萨曼特(Medha Samant)说，不认为中国会出现系统性崩溃，中国金融股的估值非常具吸引力。截至去年12月31日，富达国际投资管理的资产规模达2,700亿美元。
'But at the same time, we are aware of the vested interests, and the government has to find a very fine balance between who to bail out and who not to bail out,' said Ms. Samant, adding that Fidelity is underweight on Chinese financials.
萨曼特说：但同时，我们知道存在既得利益者，政府需要在救谁和不救谁之间找到一个非常好的平衡。她还说，富达国际投资减持中国金融股。
Another concern is the complexity of the debt. While many trust products take money from a single source, such as a bank, and give to a single borrower, some involve multiple investors in a number of asset classes. This could make resolving a default much more complicated.
另一个令人担忧的问题是信托贷款的复杂性。尽管许多信托产品是从单一来源（比如银行）获得资金，然后将资金借给一个单一借款者，但一些信托产品牵涉数个资产类别的多个投资者。这可能会令解决违约问题变得更加复杂。
Investors say that weaning the country from debt could be a painful process.
投资者说，使中国摆脱对贷款的依赖可能会是一个痛苦的过程。
'I do think that China needs a good bout of creative destruction to raise its economic efficiency,' said Petr Kocourek, senior portfolio manager in Singapore at First State Investments, which managed assets worth $157 billion as of March 31. 'But creative destruction by definition means that companies will have to go broke, there will be bankruptcies, there will be failure, and there will be problems.'
首域投资（香港）有限公司(First State Investments)驻新加坡的资深投资组合经理科曹雷克(Petr Kocourek)说，他确实认为中国需要好好进行一场创造性破坏，来提高经济的效率，但创造性破坏意味着将会有企业破产，还将出现各种问题。截至3月31日，首域投资管理的资产规模为1,570亿美元。
