If you find yourself forking out $30,000 for a Jeep Cherokee, know that $600 of that will go to China's government.
如果你为购买一辆吉普•切诺基(Jeep Cherokee)支付了3万美元,那么你要知道的是,其中600美元将进入中国政府的口袋。
Disclosures last month from Italy's securities regulator listed the People's Bank of China with a 2% stake in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, the Turin, Italy-based holding company of the iconic American car maker Chrysler and owner of the Jeep brand. Separate statements also showed the PBOC holding around 2% of Telecom Italia SpA and cable maker Prysmian SpA. This follows first-quarter revelations that the Chinese central bank had acquired similar sized holdings in Italian oil producer Eni SpA and utility Enel SpA.
意大利证券监管者上个月披露的信息显示,中国央行持有菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车(Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV) 2%的股份。总部设在意大利都灵的菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车是美国汽车制造商克莱斯勒集团(Chrysler)的持股公司,吉普•切诺基品牌就出自其麾下。其它一些公告显示,中国央行还持有意大利电信(Telecom Italia SpA)以及电缆制造商Prysmian SpA各自大约2%的股权。第一季度监管机构曾披露,中国央行已经从意大利油气生产商Eni SpA和基础设施公司Enel SpA买入了类似比例的股权。
It's the latest reminder that in an era of rock-bottom bond yields driven in part by expansive central-bank policy, government-run investors face the same dilemma as private-money managers: They must venture into ever-riskier assets to extract returns.
上述状况再次提醒人们,在债券收益率因央行宽松政策而跌至谷底的阶段,政府运作的投资机构也跟私营基金经理们面临着同样的两难困境:为了获得高回报,必须冒险投资风险更高的资产。
China's forays into Italian stocks were likely done by fund managers from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, not the PBOC itself. SAFE is an agency of the central bank but invests independently under a mandate to optimize returns on the country's foreign-currency reserves and keeps its giant balance sheet separate.
中国央行涉水这些意大利企业股份的交易可能是通过国家外汇管理局(简称:外管局)完成的,而非央行自身。外管局是央行旗下的一个机构,但以实现国家外汇储备收益率最大化为职责进行独立投资,其庞大的资产负债表也保持独立。
Yet that $4 trillion portfolio owes its existence to a decade of currency market interventions by the PBOC, all undertaken to anchor the yuan exchange rate. That a small portion of it has now made China a notable shareholder in Italy's corporate establishment underscores the problematic nature of those interventions. It gives rise to unintended secondary effects, especially when other central banks are also aggressively intervening in money markets.
然而,这个4万亿美元投资组合,是中国央行为了稳定人民币汇率在外汇市场长达十年的干预行动的结果。而其中很小的一部分就让中国现在成为了意大利企业的一个引人注目的股东,这凸显出这些干预行动存在的问题。它会在产生意想不到的副作用,尤其是在其他国家央行也积极干预货币市场的时候。
Equities are among the riskiest of investment classes, and so were once considered taboo for central bank reserve managers. Not anymore, not when they are creating more money than they can figure out what to do with. Asian and European central banks -- or their independent money manager agents, such as SAFE -- have been quietly building diversified stock portfolios, says Edwin Truman, a fellow at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
股票是风险最高的投资类别之一,因此一度被视为央行储备管理者的禁区。现在则不一样了,因为他们“攒的钱”已经超出了他们能够应付的规模。彼得森国际经济研究所(Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics)的研究员杜鲁门(Edwin Truman)说,亚洲和欧洲国家的央行――或者说它们的独立资金管理机构,例如中国外管局――一直都在静悄悄地建立多元化股票头寸。
These investments will juice up returns and potentially satisfy governments that are increasingly demanding profits from both reserve managers and state-run sovereign wealth funds. But they can also expose taxpayer-owned assets to potential losses, create an awkward relationship between a government shareholder and corporate management, and foster share price volatility by encouraging private investors to speculate on these powerful new players' strategies.
这些投资将提高回报率并且可能让日益要求储备管理人和国有主权财富基金利润的政府满意。但同时,它们也可能令为纳税人所有的资产面临潜在损失,在政府股东和企业管理层之间创造一种尴尬关系,并且引发私营部门投资者就这些实力雄厚的新参与者的战略进行投机,进而造成股价波动。
So far SAFE's Italian bets haven't fared so well. Following news Wednesday that Italy slipped back into recession last quarter, Milan's FTSE MIB index is down 11.5% from March 31. Fiat's shares are now down 20%, Prysmian's 17%, and Telecom Italia's 4%.
迄今为止,中国外管局对意大利的押注运气不怎么好。在上周三意大利最新一个季度再度陷入衰退的消息传出后,意大利的FTSE MIB股指较3月31日回落了11.5%。菲亚特的股价现在下跌20%,普睿司曼(Prysmian)跌17%,意大利电讯(Telecom Italia)跌4%。
SAFE is in for the longest of hauls and these holdings are a tiny fraction of total assets. So, for now it can ignore such paper losses. But divulging its holdings could put it under more scrutiny within China, crimping its freedom to act, says Mr. Truman.
外管局可以长期持有这些股份,而且这些持股只是其总资产中很小的一部分。因此,外管局暂时可以忽视这些账面损失。但杜鲁门说,披露这些持股信息可能会使外管局在中国国内受到更多监督,制约其行动自由。
The problem is it's increasingly difficult to assure an acceptable return on low-risk assets -- especially in Europe. Demand for German 10-year bunds is so heavy that their yields hover above 1% and the government bonds of once crisis-wracked Spain are near 200-year lows. This pushes profit-seeking reserve managers into the same 'hunt for yield' that's driving private investors into ever-riskier investments.
问题是现在越来越难确信低风险资产能够提供一个可接受的回报率,特别是在欧洲。市场对德国10年期国债的需求如此旺盛,以致于其收益率一直徘徊在1%上方。而在曾经受债务危机困扰的西班牙,国债收益率目前接近200年低点。这种状况促使追求赢利的外汇储备管理者也加入到“追寻收益率”的行列中,就像私人投资者出于同样目的涉足更有风险的投资一样。
The roots of this dilemma lie with central banks' own behavior. And it's not just the PBOC's interventions or the $4 trillion now burning a hole in SAFE's pockets that are to blame. There's been a rapid expansion of central banks' balance sheets everywhere.
造成这种困境的根源是央行自己的行为。问题不仅限于中国央行对外汇市场的干预以及外管局的4万亿美元投资组合。事实上,全球各国央行的资产规模都在迅速扩大。
In its annual Global Public Investor report from June, the London-based Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum estimated that central banks world-wide now have $13.2 trillion in assets under management.
在6月份发布的年度报告《全球公共投资者》(Global Public Investor)中,总部位于伦敦的官方货币与金融机构论坛(Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum)估计,全球央行目前管理的资产达13.2万亿美元。
The U.S. Federal Reserve has tapered its 'quantitative easing' program but it's still buying a hefty $25 billion a month in bonds while the Bank of Japan acquires 7 trillion yen ($68 billion) over the same period. And since nearly every major central bank's benchmark interest rate is near zero, which encourages private investors to chase risk, these purchase programs drive central banks scrambling into a global competition for scare assets.
美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称:美联储)已在逐渐削减“定量宽松”措施,但目前每月仍买进多达250亿美元的债券,而日本央行每月要买进7万亿日圆(约合680亿美元)的债券。目前几乎所有主要央行的基准利率都接近零,从而鼓励了私人投资者追逐风险,而这些债券购买措施促使央行争相加入到争夺风险资产的全球竞争中。
Is that what we want the managers of our money to be doing?
这难道就是我们希望外汇储备管理者所做的事情吗?