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This is the worst possible time for Britain to consider leaving the EU – or for Scotland to break with Britain.
眼下可能是英国最不该考虑退出欧盟(EU)的时候，也是苏格兰最不该脱离英国的时候。
The EU is an unfinished project of European states that have sacrificed part of their sovereignty to form an ever-closer union based on shared values and ideals. Those shared values are under attack on multiple fronts. Russia’s undeclared war against Ukraine is perhaps the most immediate example but it is by no means the only one. Resurgent nationalism and illiberal democracy are on the rise within Europe, at its borders and around the globe.
欧盟是欧洲国家一个尚未完成的项目。这些国家牺牲了部分主权，以求构建一个建立在共同价值观和理想基础上的、日益密切的联盟。这些共同的价值观正在多方面遭遇攻击。俄罗斯对乌克兰的不宣而战也许是最直接的例子，但它绝不是唯一的例子。在欧洲的内部、边缘乃至世界各地，民族主义和不自由的民主(Illiberal Democracy)正在重新抬头。
Since world war two the European powers, along with the US, have been the main supporters of the prevailing international order. Yet, in recent years, overwhelmed by the euro crisis, Europe has turned inward, diminishing its ability to play a forceful role in international affairs.
二战以来，欧洲强国和美国一直是现行国际秩序的主要支柱。然而，近些年来，在欧元区危机的重压下，欧洲开始把注意力转向自身，逐步弱化了其在国际事务中发挥有力影响的能力。
To make matters worse, the US has done the same, if for different reasons. Their preoccupation with domestic matters has created a vacuum that ambitious regional powers have sought to fill.
更糟糕的是，美国也出现了同样的转变，尽管它是出于别的原因。被内部事务缠身的它们留下了一个真空，而野心勃勃的地区性强国企图填补这个真空。
The resulting breakdown of international governance has given rise to a plethora of unresolved crises around the globe. The breakdown is most acute in the Middle East. The sudden emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or Isis, provides the most gruesome example of how far it can go and how much human suffering it can cause.
国际治理由此出现的垮塌，在全球催生了大量有待解决的危机。这种垮塌在中东表现得最为尖锐。伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)的突然崛起，就提供了一个最触目惊心的例子，来证明这种垮塌能发展到何种地步、以及会有多少人因此而蒙难。
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, military conflict has spread to Europe. Two radically different forms of government are competing for ascendancy. The EU stands for principles of liberal democracy, international governance and the rule of law. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin maintains the outward appearance of democracy by exploiting a narrative of ethnic and religious nationalism to generate popular support for his corrupt, authoritarian regime.
随着俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰，军事冲突已蔓延到欧洲。两种根本上不同的政体正在为取得支配地位而相互竞争。欧盟拥护自由民主、国际治理及法治原则。在俄罗斯，弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)总统则在利用族群和宗教民族主义叙事，来博得民众对其腐败威权政权的支持，维持一种表面上的民主。
As a major power and global financial centre, Britain ought to be centrally involved in crafting a European response to this threat. But like the US and the EU itself, Britain has also been distracted by internal matters. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron has been persuaded by anti-European zeal – not least within his own party – to put UK membership in the EU to a vote in 2017.
面对这一威胁，欧盟需要拿出对策，作为一个主要强国及全球金融中心，英国应在制定这一对策方面发挥核心作用。但正如美国及欧盟自身一样，英国的精力也被其内部事务分散了。英国首相、保守党人戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)在国内强烈的反欧盟情绪——尤其是他所在政党内的反欧盟情绪——的影响下，已承诺将英国是否留在欧盟内的问题交由2017年的公投解决。
A poll on Scottish independence is only days away. Just when Britain should be confronting grave threats to its way of life, it is preoccupied with divorce of one type or another. Divorce is always messy. A vote for Scottish independence would weaken – in political and economic terms – both a truncated UK and Scotland. An independent Scotland would be financially unstable, especially if threats to renege on debt repayments were carried through.
如今，距苏格兰独立公投只剩几天时间了。就在英国本应该应对其生活方式受到的重大威胁时，它头脑中想的却全是这样或那样的“离婚”。离婚永远都是混乱不堪的。如果公投得出支持苏格兰独立的结果，会从政治和经济两方面削弱残缺不全的联合王国以及苏格兰自己。新独立的苏格兰在金融方面将是不稳定的，尤其是在关于债务违约的威胁兑现的情况下。
For Scotland and the rest of the UK to enter into a currency union without a political union, after the euro crisis has demonstrated all the pitfalls, would be a retrograde step that neither side should contemplate.
对苏格兰和联合王国的剩余部分来说，在没有政治联盟的情况下建立货币联盟将是一种倒退，欧元区危机已向人们展示了这样做的各种弊端，双方都不应考虑这样的选择。
Yet without it, an independent Scotland could not benefit from the low interest rates that a strong pound has brought. These considerations ought to outweigh whatever possible benefits independence might bring.
然而，如果不建立货币联盟，独立后的苏格兰就无法从强势英镑带来的低利率中受益。这些因素应该会压倒独立带来的任何潜在好处。
Yes, there are significant policy differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK. There is a more left-leaning approach to many issues, notably education, north of the border. But Scotland would be better placed to attain its political goals as part of a united Britain that is part of the EU.
没错，苏格兰与英国其他地区的政策有很大不同。在很多问题上——尤其是教育——苏格兰的政策更为左倾。不过，如果苏格兰是统一的英国的一部分，而英国又是欧盟的一部分，那么苏格兰将能够更好地实现其政治目标。
The same applies to a British exit from Europe. Policy differences can be mediated. A divorce would weaken the UK. Those who call for separation seem to have forgotten that Britain currently enjoys the best of all possible worlds. Being part of the EU but not part of the euro allows the UK to enjoy the trading benefits without the currency constraints.
同样的道理也适用于“英国退欧”问题。政策差异是可以调和的。“退欧”会削弱英国。那些呼吁“退欧”的人似乎忘了，英国眼下享有的局面正是所有可能局面中最有利的一种。英国是欧盟成员国、却不是欧元区国家，这让英国能够享有贸易上的好处、却不必受到货币方面的限制。
Furthermore, Britain has always played a balancing role between hostile blocs. Its absence would greatly diminish the weight of the EU in the world.
此外，英国一直在敌对阵营间扮演平衡角色。英国的缺席将极大地削弱欧盟在全球的影响力。
The EU has proved to be the best guarantor of peace and human security since the end of the second world war. The importance of preserving the shared values underpinning a whole way of life far outweighs any possible advantages of independence. The difficult times we are facing call for increased unity, not divorce.
事实已经证明，欧盟是二战结束以来和平与人类安全的最佳保障。比起独立带来的任何潜在好处，维护支撑着一整套生活方式的共同价值观要重要得多。我们正面临一个艰难的时期，这要求我们加强团结，而不是闹离婚。
Only if Britain fails to resolve its differences with the EU, and if the pro-European Scots (having voted to remain within the UK) thus find themselves unwillingly excluded from Europe in 2017, would there be just cause for Scots to call for a new referendum. If it comes to that, Scotland will be in a different position – one that could legitimise a split.
如果苏格兰人公投支持苏格兰留在英国内，而英国却没能解决其与欧盟的分歧，那么到了2017年时，这些亲欧盟的苏格兰人会不情愿地发现，自己被排除在欧盟之外。只有在那种情形下，苏格兰人要求举行新的公投才是正当的。若真到了那一步，苏格兰的处境将截然不同，届时苏格兰脱离英国将是合情合理的。
But to vote for independence from the UK now would be to prematurely surrender Scottish leverage in London, and Britain’s leverage in the world.
现在就举行独立公投，会过早地让苏格兰在伦敦丧失影响力、让英国在世界丧失影响力。
