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If you are bored of Botswana, tired of Tunisia and Mongolia is just not edgy enough any more then perhaps Tajikistan could be your next true frontier market destination.
如果你厌倦了博茨瓦纳和突尼斯，觉得蒙古也不再时髦了，那么，塔吉克斯坦或许能够成为你的下一个真正前沿的投资目的地。
The Tajik government certainly hopes so. It has just organised its first ever investment conference – and with some 600 people in attendance, it would seem there is certainly some curiosity about what Tajikistan has to offer.
塔吉克斯坦政府当然希望如此。该国政府刚刚举办了有史以来的首次投资大会，大约600人出席了会议——由此可以看出，有一些人想知道塔吉克斯坦能提供些什么。
“The development of the private sector and attracting investment is one of our top priorities,” Tajikistan’s strongman president, Emomali Rahmon, told the assembled delegates in Dushanbe’s national library. “We definitely need huge investment to fully realise our resources and potential.”
“我们的首要任务之一是发展私营部门和吸引投资,”铁腕总统埃莫马利•拉赫蒙(Emomali Rakhmon)在首都杜尚别的国家图书馆告诉与会代表，“我们需要大量投资以充分利用我们的资源，发挥我们的潜力。”
International investors may have an opportunity to take a closer look at Tajikistan soon: the central bank last week signed up Standard & Poor’s to provide Tajikistan’s first credit rating, a move which may be a prelude to a maiden bond. And Talco, the state aluminium company, has suggested it may consider a listing in a few years’ time.
国际投资者可能很快有机会进一步了解塔吉克斯坦：该国央行上周与标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)签署协议，将由该机构对塔吉克斯坦进行首次信用评级。这一举措意味着塔吉克斯坦或许将首次发行债券。国有的塔吉克斯坦铝业公司(Talco)表示可能考虑在几年内上市。
With 8m people and GDP of just $8.5bn last year (making it one of the world’s 30 poorest countries by GDP per capita), Tajikistan is not an obvious destination for foreign investment. Add endemic corruption, unreliable electricity supplies, ever-changing tax and customs regulations, an economy under pressure from the slowdown in Russia and competition from politically-backed Chinese investors and it is clear that investing in Tajikistan is only for the hardiest souls.
塔吉克斯坦有800万人口，去年国内生产总值(GDP)仅为85亿美元（这使其成为世界上按照人均GDP衡量最贫穷的30个国家之一），它并非是一个外国投资者容易想到的投资目的国。再加上普遍的腐败问题、不稳定的电力供应、变来变去的税务和关税法规、俄罗斯经济放缓给该国经济造成的压力、以及来自有政治背景的中国投资者的竞争，显然只有最无所畏惧的人才会选择在塔吉克斯坦投资。
In theory at least, the country holds plentiful opportunities.
至少在理论上，这个国家能提供丰富的机会。
It may be poor, but it is growing fast: GDP growth has averaged 7.4 per cent over the last three years.
塔吉克斯坦或许很贫穷，但该国经济在快速增长：过去3年其GDP年均增长率为7.4%。
It is home to one of the largest silver deposits in the world, as well as significant gold deposits. It is one of the largest producers of antimony, a strategic minor metal, outside of China. And just last year, Total of France and CNPC of China partnered with Canadian-listed explorer Tethys Petroleum to work on exploring a natural gas deposit that one western diplomat says could be “a complete game changer”.
该国的银储量位居世界前茅，黄金储量也颇为丰富。它还是中国以外最大的锑生产国之一，锑是一种战略性稀有金属。去年，法国道达尔公司(Total)和中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)与在加拿大上市的勘探公司克能石油(Tethys Petroleum)合作，共同堪探塔吉克斯坦的一个天然气区块，一位西方的外交官称该气田可能成为“彻底的游戏规则改变者”。
In a region where electricity shortages are common (ironically, including in Tajikistan itself) the country has some of the world’s potential hydroelectric power resources. According to government estimates, it has the potential to produce 527bn kilowatt hours a year – an amount equivalent to more than 100 Hoover dams – but it is using only about 5 per cent of that potential.
在一个普遍存在电力短缺问题的地区，该国拥有一些世界上潜力最大的水利资源（讽刺的是，塔吉克斯坦也是该地区缺乏电力的国家之一）。根据塔吉克斯坦政府的估算，该国有潜力每年发电5270亿千瓦时，相当于100多个胡佛水坝的发电量，但该国只利用了大约5%的潜能。
And Tajikistan is also blessed with fertile agricultural land – which may offer an opportunity as Russia searches for new sources of fruit and vegetables after banning European imports. Frederic Lobbe, who is opening the first branch of French supermarket chain Auchan in Dushanbe, says the move will expand trade between Tajikistan and Russia – where Auchan also has a significant presence.
塔吉克斯坦还拥有肥沃的农田——在俄罗斯禁止从欧洲进口水果蔬菜，正在寻找新供应来源之际，这可能提供一个发展机会。弗雷德里克•洛贝(Frederic Lobbe)正在开设法国连锁超市欧尚(Auchan)在杜尚别的第一家分店，他表示，在杜尚别开设分店将扩大塔吉克斯坦和俄罗斯之间的贸易。欧尚在俄罗斯也有规模不小的业务。
“Many of the products will come in trucks from Russia and we don’t want them to go back empty,” he says. “We want them to go back loaded with Tajik grapes, apricots, cherries and onions.”
“许多产品将通过卡车从俄罗斯运来，我们不希望这些卡车空载而归，”他说，“我们要让它们载着塔吉克斯坦的葡萄、杏、樱桃和洋葱回去。”
Finally, there are hopes that Tajikistan can reclaim its ancient Silk Road role as a major transit country, facilitating trade from China and Afghanistan to Russia and the west.
最后，人们希望，塔吉克斯坦能够重新扮演起其在古代丝绸之路中的角色——作为主要的中转国，促进中国和阿富汗与俄罗斯和西方之间的贸易。
But after a week reporting in Dushanbe (including moderating a forum hosted by the FT and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on the Tajik business climate) it is hard to have any illusions about the challenges of investing in Tajikistan.
但在杜尚别进行了一周的报道工作（包括主持一个由英国《金融时报》和欧洲复兴开发银行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)举办的关于塔吉克斯坦商业环境的论坛）后，你很难对在塔吉克斯坦进行投资的挑战心存任何幻想。
The most significant is corruption: Tajikistan ranks 154 out of 177 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Much of the economy is in the hands of the president’s family: his brother-in-law controls the largest bank, the main private airline, and is linked to the aluminium factory which accounts for much of the country’s export earnings; his son heads the customs service.
最重大的问题是腐败：透明国际编制的“清廉指数”(Corruption Perceptions Index)，塔吉克斯坦排在177个国家中的第154位。该国经济的很大一部分领域由总统的家庭把持：总统的妻弟控制着全国最大的银行和最大的私营航空公司，并且和占该国出口收益很大一部分的铝厂有关联；总统的儿子则掌管海关部门。
The US state department criticised Tajikistan’s “egregious corruption” in a scathing report on investment in the country earlier this year. One western diplomat is blunter still: “It’s a kleptocracy.”
美国国务院在今年早些时候发布了一份关于在塔吉克斯坦投资的报告，报告言辞尖锐，抨击了该国“的严重腐败”。一个西方外交官更是直言不讳：“这是窃国政治。”
Even if investors can navigate the political maze of the Tajik elite, however, there are other concerns. Tajikistan’s geographical location is as much a curse as a blessing. It has a long-running feud with Uzbekistan, and skirmishes this year have also created tension on the Kyrgyz border. But perhaps most significantly, it has 1400km of border with Afghanistan. As one major foreign investor in the country says: “Security is my primary concern.”
就算投资者能够应付塔吉克斯坦精英阶层所制造的政治迷局，该国还存在其他令人担忧的问题。塔吉克斯坦的地理位置有利也有弊。该国与乌兹别克斯坦长期不睦，今年以来该国与吉尔吉斯斯坦边境地区发生了一些小冲突，制造了紧张局势。但最重要的或许是该国与阿富汗有长达1400公里的边境线。正如一位主要的外国投资者所说的：“安全是我首要关注的问题。”
Electricity supply, though improved, remains erratic. According to a recent survey by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Tajik businesses suffer 11 outages per month, and losses due topower outages were equivalent to 10 per cent of annual sales.
电力供应虽然有所改善，但仍不稳定。根据欧洲复兴开发银行最近进行的一项调查，塔吉克斯坦的企业每月要遭遇11次停电，而停电造成的损失相当于年销售额的10%。
There has been some progress: Tajikistan has introduced a “one-stop shop” that has reduced the amount of time necessary to register a new business. Last year, it joined the WTO. And it is in talks to join the EITI, a natural resources anti-corruption initiative.
塔吉克斯坦也取得了一些进步：通过引入“一站式服务”，减少了注册新公司所需要的时间。去年，塔吉克斯坦加入了世界贸易组织(WTO)。目前，该国还在进行谈判，寻求加入自然资源领域的反腐倡议《采掘业透明度行动计划》(EITI)。
Those efforts have persuaded a few brave private-sector investors to come to Tajikistan. In addition to Total and Auchan, there is CHL Limited, an Indian family company which is due to open the Dushanbe Sheraton in November, and a group of Turkish investors who are building a Coca Cola bottling plant.
这些努力吸引一些勇敢的私营部门投资者来到塔吉克斯坦。除了道达尔和欧尚之外，印度的家族企业CHL LTD将于11月在杜尚别开一家喜来登(Sheraton)酒店，一群土耳其投资者则正在该国兴建一家可口可乐(Coca Cola)灌装厂。
But the problems outlined above mean the vast majority of investment into Tajikistan has been limited to politically-backed Russian and Chinese companies (often state-owned), and international financial institutions such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
但是由于上文提到的这些问题，塔吉克斯坦的绝大部分外国投资来自得到政治支持的俄罗斯和中国企业（通常是国有企业），以及世界银行(World Bank)、亚洲开发银行(ADB)、欧洲复兴开发银行等国际金融机构。
As Susan Elliott, US ambassador to Dushanbe, puts it: “I would love to have more American and European investment — it is a win-win for America and Tajikistan — but I need to be honest about the investment climate. Many US and international companies who have done business in Tajikistan have faced difficulties.”
正如美国驻塔吉克斯坦大使苏珊•埃利奥特(Susan Elliott)所说的：“我乐意在这里看到更多来自美国和欧洲的投资，这对美国和塔吉克斯坦来说是双赢的局面，但是我必须坦诚地说明这里的商业环境。许多在塔吉克斯坦经营的美国企业和跨国企业都遭遇了困难。”
