The US Federal Reserve sent a strong signal that it expects to tighten monetary policy by the middle of 2015 as it dropped its forecast that it would keep low interest rates for a “considerable time”.
美联储(Fed)放弃了其会在“相当长时间内”保持低利率不变的预测,从而释放出预计会不迟于2015年年中收紧货币政策的强烈信号。
But the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it could be “patient” in judging when to start raising rates, in new language designed to reassure markets that rate rises are not imminent.
不过,负责设定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)表示,该委员会将“耐心”判断何时应该开始加息。这种新的措辞旨在安抚市场情绪,告诉它们利率不会马上上调。
The S&P 500 climbed 1.8 per cent to 2007.58 points. The dollar was little changed against the euro at $1.2421.
消息传来,标普500 (S&P 500)指数攀升1.8%,至2007.58点。美元兑欧元汇率几乎没有改变,保持在1欧元兑1.2421美元的水平。
The decision to drop “considerable time” despite global market turmoil shows the Fed’s confidence in strong US growth and its desire to prepare financial markets for tighter monetary policy next year. The decision came as Russia unveiled measures to support the rouble, prompting a 12 per cent rebound in the currency.
美联储决定不顾全球市场动荡,放弃“相当长时间内”的说法,一方面表明它对美国的强劲增长有信心,另一方面表明它想让金融市场为明年货币政策收紧做好准备。就在美联储做出这一决定之际,俄罗斯出台了支撑卢布的举措,促使卢布汇率反弹12%。
But in a carefully weighted statement that had three dissenters the FOMC said the new guidance was consistent with the old. It suggests the central bank is looking at a first rate rise in June 2015.
不过,FOMC在一份经过仔细权衡的声明(声明提到该委员会有三人投了反对票)中表示,新的指引与原先的指引是一致的。这说明,美联储正考虑在2015年6月开始加息。
The FOMC also forecast a slower pace of rate rises in 2015 and 2016. Instead of expecting interest rates of 1.25-1.5 per cent by the end of 2015, the FOMC now forecasts them to be between 1-1.25 per cent. That suggests four quarter point rate rises next year instead of five. Instead of rates at 2.75-3 per cent by the end of 2016, the Fed now expects rates at 2.5 per cent.
FOMC还预计,会在2015年和2016年以一种较缓慢的节奏上调利率。该委员会放弃了利率会在2015年底达到1.25%至1.5%的预期,相反,它如今预期利率届时会达到1%至1.25%。这意味着利率明年只会上调1个百分点,而不是1.25个百分点。此外,美联储如今预期2016年底利率会达到2.5%,而不是2.75%至3%。
Two of the dissenters on the 10-strong FOMC thought the statement was not tough enough, one thought it too strong. In recent months the US economy has enjoyed its best run of data since the end of the recession in 2009, including jobs growth of 321,000 in November, as consumers respond to sliding oil prices.
在由十人组成的FOMC中,有三人投了反对票,其中两人认为这份声明不够强硬、一人认为这份声明太过强硬。最近几个月,随着消费者对不断下滑的油价作出回应,美国经济报出自2009年衰退结束以来表现最好的一组数据。其中,11月份就业人数增加了32.1万。