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The prospect of further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank this week helped equity bulls brush aside steep falls for Chinese stocks, renewed weakness for oil and copper prices and uncertainties about the forthcoming Greek election.
欧洲央行(ECB)本周有可能进一步采取刺激措施，这种前景帮助看涨股市的人忽略中国股市暴跌、油价和铜价再度下跌、以及即将举行的希腊选举的不确定性的影响。
Indeed, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 equity index rose 0.2 per cent to a seven-year closing high of 1409.92, although that was well down from the day’s high of 1,418.11. The Xetra Dax in Frankfurt climbed 0.7 per cent to a record peak of 10,242. But activity was relatively light given the closure of US markets for Martin Luther King Day.
实际上，富时Eurofirst 300指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300)收盘上涨0.2%，至7年来的最高点1409.92点，尽管这远低于日内高点1418.11点。德国Xetra Dax指数上涨0.7%，达到创纪录的历史最高水平10242点。但鉴于美国市场因马丁•路德•金纪念日(Martin Luther King DAY)休市，交投相对淡静。
There was a near unanimous view in the markets that the ECB would announce a programme of sovereign quantitative easing on Thursday, aimed at bolstering the eurozone’s economy and reversing a slide into deflation. But plenty of questions remained over the potential size of any programme.
市场几乎一致认为，欧洲央行将在本周四宣布买入主权债券的量化宽松项目，目的是提振欧元区经济和扭转通缩趋势。但围绕该项目的潜在规模，市场仍存在许多疑问。
Steve Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank, argued that the only way the ECB would be likely to get inflation back to where it wanted it was by shaping any QE announcement towards a significant currency depreciation.
标准银行(Standard Bank)的10国集团(G10)外汇策略主管史蒂夫•巴罗(Steve Barrow)辩称，欧洲央行要让通胀重回理想水平，唯一途径是宣布足以促使欧元大幅贬值的量化宽松计划。
“It could do this by leaving QE open-ended, with the bank buying bonds until it has inflation back close to where it wants it,” he said. “If this plays out on Thursday we will lower our forecasts for the euro — to put parity with the dollar in the frame this year as opposed to our current forecast for next year.
他说：“它可以出台无止境的量化宽松举措，坚持购买债券，直至通胀重新接近其希望的水平。如果周四出现这种情形，我们将降低对欧元的预测——今年就可能达到与美元等值，而不是我们当前预测的明年。”
“However, if the ECB eschews this route by announcing a fixed amount of QE and ignores the chance to tie QE to achievement of the inflation target, we’d be tempted to leave our forecasts largely unchanged. Indeed, it could even create a ‘buy the fact’ rise in the euro.”
“然而，如果欧洲央行没有走这条路，而是宣布了固定数量的量化宽松举措，并忽视将量化宽松与实现通胀目标挂钩的机会，我们将倾向于基本保持预测不变。实际上，这甚至可能导致欧元出现‘在证实的时候买入’式的上涨。”
The single currency started the week on the front foot, bouncing 0.5 per cent from an 11-year low against the dollar to trade at $1.1624. It also rallied 2.8 per cent against the Swiss franc to SFr1.0192 as the dust continued to settle following the Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision to abandon its currency ceiling against the euro last week.
欧元本周开局上涨，欧元兑美元汇率从11年的低点反弹0.5%，至1欧元兑1.1624美元。欧元兑瑞士法郎上涨2.8%，至1欧元兑1.0192瑞士法郎，瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)上周意外决定放弃瑞郎兑欧元汇率上限的冲击波逐渐平息下来。
Denmark’s central bank followed the SNB’s lead as it pushed its deposit rate further into negative territory to defend the krone’s peg to the euro, analysts said. The shared currency was flat against the krone at DKr7.4319.
分析师们表示，丹麦央行效仿了瑞士央行，将存款利率进一步下调至负利率区间以捍卫丹麦克朗与欧元挂钩的机制。欧元兑丹麦克朗汇率保持在1欧元兑7.4319丹麦克朗。
“It is worth remembering that the Danish krone was under heavier pressure during the ERM crisis compared to currently, and is still managed as part of ERM2,” said Divyang Shah, global strategist at IFR Markets.
IFR Markets全球策略师迪夫扬•沙赫(Divyang Shah)表示：“值得记住的是，丹麦克朗在欧洲汇率机制(ERM)危机期间承受着比现在更大的压力，而且目前仍作为‘欧洲新汇率兑换机制’(ERM II)的一部分进行管理。”
“We do not think the krone will be depegged versus the euro.”
“我们认为丹麦将不会放弃克朗与欧元挂钩的机制。”
The positive start to the week for European stocks stood in stark contrast to China, where the Shanghai Composite index tumbled 7.7 per cent, its biggest one-day fall in more than six years.
欧洲股市本周开局上涨与中国股市形成鲜明对比，上证综指大幅下挫7.7%，为逾6年来最大单日跌幅。
The slide was triggered by an order from the securities regulator banning three large brokerages from opening new margin trading accounts, which had been a big factor in the Shanghai market’s sharp rally to a 65-month high.
中国证监会下令禁止三家大型券商新开融资融券客户信用账户3个月，这引发了股市的下跌；融资交易是上海股市大幅攀升至65个月高点的一个重要因素。
Mark Williams at Capital Economics said that while the potential for further falls in Chinese equity prices was high, the direct impact of any sustained decline would be small.
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，尽管中国股市进一步下跌的可能性很大，但持续下跌的直接影响很小。
But he added there would be implications for Chinese monetary policy. “Abrupt equity market moves complicate the job of monetary policy makers,” he said. “November’s benchmark interest rate cut added fuel to the equity rally. Fear of further stoking the mania has probably made policy makers more reluctant to follow up.
但他补充称，这将对中国货币政策产生影响。“股市的骤然走势将令货币政策制定者的工作复杂化，”他表示，“去年11月的降息助燃了股市的涨势。此前对于继续激发股市热情的担忧，可能让政策制定者不愿出台跟进措施。”
“Accordingly, a sustained equity market slump, or even stabilisation in prices, would make further rate cuts and reductions in the required reserve ratio much more likely.”
“相应地，股市持续下跌，甚至股价企稳，将加大进一步降息和下调存款准备金率的可能性。”
Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their downward trend, with Brent crude falling $1.11, or 2.2 per cent, to $49.06 a barrel — but well clear of last week’s five-year low of $45.19. Copper fell 0.8 per cent in London to $5,672 a tonne after hitting $5,353 last week, the lowest since July 2009.
与此同时，油价重拾下跌趋势，布伦特(Brent)原油价格下跌1.11美元，至每桶49.06美元，跌幅为2.2%，但远远脱离上周每桶45.19美元的5年低点。伦敦铜价下跌0.8%，至每吨5672美元，上周曾触及5353美元，为自2009年7月以来最低。
Gold gave back some of its recent gains in spite of a broadly weaker tone to the dollar. The metal was down $4 at $1,275 an ounce after reaching a four-month high on Friday.
尽管美元走势整体变弱，但金价抹去了最近的部分涨幅，下跌4美元，至每盎司1275美元，上周五曾触及4个月高点。
Greece is likely to come under the spotlight ahead of Sunday’s general election, although many in the markets appeared to believe that the new government — whatever its make-up — would reach a compromise with the country’s creditors, allowing the country to remain in a bailout programme.
希腊可能会在周日大选之前受到关注，不过很多市场参与者似乎认为，新政府（不管其构成如何）将与国际债权人达成妥协，让该国得以继续执行纾困计划。
“Even under this scenario, however, negotiations may prove tough and take a long time,” said Luigi Speranza, analysts at BNP Paribas. “Moreover, the outcome of these negotiations could set an important precedent for the evolution of the political debate elsewhere.”
“然而，即便在这种情况下，谈判也可能被证明是艰难且漫长的，”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师路易吉•斯佩兰扎(Luigi Speranza)表示，“另外，这些谈判的结果可能会为其他国家政治辩论的走向确立重要先例。”
