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The most closely-fought UK general election in a generation is prompting signs of uncertainty in financial markets, with investors clamouring for insurance against sharp swings in the value of the pound.
一代人以来最难解难分的英国大选，正导致金融市场出现不确定性迹象，投资者纷纷寻求对英镑汇率剧烈波动投保。
With less than a month before the election and little separating the two main parties in the polls, the currency market has registered a pronounced rise in short-term volatility, suggesting investors are preparing for elevated political uncertainty.
距离英国大选不到一个月之际，两个主要政党在民意调查中几乎不相上下，造成外汇市场短期波动性明显上升，投资者似乎在为政治不确定性上升做准备。
Market measures of volatility of the pound against the euro and the dollar have reached levels not seen since the formation of the current coalition government. The currency market often sets the tone ahead of bonds and shares, as a forerunner of broader market turbulence, notably last year ahead of Scotland’s vote on independence. For now, UK government bonds and share prices have not been affected by the election but that may change as May 7 nears.
衡量英镑兑欧元、以及英镑兑美元汇率波动性的市场指标，已触及自当前联合政府成立以来未见的水平。作为更广泛市场动荡的先行指标，外汇市场往往先于债市和股市确定市场基调，比如在去年苏格兰独立公投之前就是如此。目前，英国政府债券和股票价格还没有受到大选影响，但随着5月7日的临近，这可能会发生变化。
“The UK political story has not really been priced in until now,” said Koon Chow, macro economics and foreign exchange strategist at Union Bancaire Privée. The last time there was such a spike in the cost of insuring against short-term volatility was in the run-up to the Scottish referendum, he added. “Since then, markets have been too sanguine about the political risks faced by the pound, and today we have learnt that they are rushing to catch up.”
瑞士联合私立银行(Union Bancaire Privée)宏观经济和外汇策略师Koon Chow表示：“此前英国政治状况还没有被市场真正消化。”他补充称，上一次短期波动性保险成本如此飙升是在苏格兰独立公投之前。“在那之后，市场对于英镑面临的政治风险一直过于乐观，现在我们看到市场正迅速赶上。”
Opinion polls put the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck with no sign yet of UK prime minister David Cameron making the late breakthrough expected by Tory strategists. The latest Populus/Hanover election outcome predictor for the FT shows Labour edging ahead with 278 seats (up three) and the Conservatives on 270 (down four) in the House of Commons. Such a result would give neither party a majority.
在民调中，保守党和工党不分伯仲，迄今还没有迹象表明，英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)像保守党策略师预测的那样在最后关头取得突破。为英国《金融时报》编制的最新Populus/Hanover选举结果预测指标显示，工党稍稍领先，将在众议院获得278个席位（增加了3个），保守党将获得270个席位（减少了4个）。这样的结果意味着两党都不会获得多数席位。
Markets are weighing up the possibility of Mr Miliband entering Number 10 in some kind of informal deal with the Scottish National party, which has offered to support Labour on the condition that it abandons further austerity measures to balance Britain’s deficit, currently running at 5 per cent of GDP.
市场正衡量工党领袖埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)可能通过与苏格兰民族党(Scottish National party)的某种非正式协议入主唐宁街10号，苏格兰民族党已提出将支持工党，条件是工党放弃旨在平衡英国赤字的进一步紧缩措施，目前英国预算赤字占国内生产总值(GDP)的5%。
