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All is not well in the special administrative region of Hong Kong — and not just in the stock market. Shopping, once a favoured pastime in the city, is losing its appeal. Luxury brands have been feeling the pinch for some months, and the malaise is spreading to their landlords. Last September Coach, the US fashion retailer, closed its flagship shop in Central. In November, Burberry said it would give up a floor of its main shop in Pacific Place, a mall owned by landlord Swire Properties.
香港特别行政区近来有点不顺——不仅仅是在股市。购物，这座城市曾经最钟爱的消遣方式，正渐渐失去吸引力。近几个月来，奢侈品牌感受到压力，而这波低迷正传染给它们的业主。去年9月，美国时尚零售商蔻驰(Coach)关闭了位于中环的旗舰店。11月，博柏利(Burberry)表示会放弃其在太古广场(Pacific Place)主要门店的一个楼层，太古广场的业主是太古地产(Swire Properties)。
Savills data show that high streets have been hardest hit. Last October, the property expert said that rents on three-year high street leases had fallen 30 to 40 per cent versus prior year levels. Still, the mall format — typically favoured by Hong Kong’s large listed landlords — was relatively resilient. Mall rents rose 2 per cent as a flight to safety in numbers kept occupancy rates firm. Souring consumer sentiment and strained mainland relations suggest the situation may worsen. Macquarie expects the downturn could last until luxury sales bottom at the end of 2016.
第一太平戴维斯(Savills)的数据显示，商业街地产受到的冲击最严重。去年10月，该房产专业机构称，三年期商业街地产的租金同比降低了30%至40%。尽管如此，购物中心类型的地产（这是香港大型上市房地产公司一般青睐的地产）比较抗跌。购物中心商铺的租金上涨了2%，原因是“扎堆以求安全”的心理保持出租率高企。消费者情绪变糟和香港与内地关系紧张似乎表明，情况可能恶化。麦格理(Macquarie)预计地产行业的不景气可能延续到奢侈品销售在2016年底触底。
For some landlords, this could be in the price. Hang Lung Properties, which in the first half of 2015 earned one-quarter of its top line from Hong Kong retail leases, has fallen nearly two-thirds from its 2010 post-crisis peak. Wharf, with 70 per cent of its operating profit coming from Hong Kong retail properties including Harbour City and Times Square, has halved since 2013. The two stocks trade at their lowest historical price-to-book values in more than a decade; only during the Asia crisis have these been lower.
对一些业主来说，这可能已体现在股价上。恒隆地产(Hang Lung Properties) 2015年上半年的营收中，四分之一是来自香港零售地产的租金，其股价比2010年金融危机之后的最高值跌了近三分之二。营业利润有70%来自香港零售物业（包括海港城和时代广场）的九龙仓(Wharf)集团，自2013年来股价已经减半。这两只股票的股价所反映的市净率是10多年来最低的；只有亚洲金融危机时才更低。
Even if the recovery takes time to come through, juicy yields of roughly 5 per cent look defensible. Hang Lung Properties, for instance, has zero net debt. Last year it paid out less than one-third of earnings; even in the worst post-crisis year, 2009, the dividend — which it has committed to maintaining or raising each year — was two-thirds covered by earnings.
虽然业绩复苏需要一段时间才能体现在价格上，但大约5%的诱人股息率看来是靠得住的。以恒隆地产为例，其净债务为零。去年，恒隆派出的股息还不到利润的三分之一；即便是在2009年——金融危机之后最困难的一年，恒隆的股息（它承诺维持或每年有所提高）也有三分之二得到利润覆盖。
Shopping may be out of favour in Hong Kong; bargain-hunters should sift through the landlords.
购物可能不再为香港人所热衷，但股市操盘手应该在地产股中挑一挑。
