评论
打印
China is backsliding on a pledge to impose fiscal discipline on local governments by phasing out borrowing through special-purpose vehicles that allow provinces, cities and counties to skirt restrictions on local debt.
中国正在放弃通过逐步停止地方政府利用融资平台举债来加强地方财政纪律的承诺，这些平台可以让各省、市、县绕开对地方举债的限制。
In landmark policy guidelines two years ago known as Document 43, China’s cabinet stated that borrowing by local government financing vehicles — investment companies owned by the government but ostensibly separate from the fiscal budget — must not increase government debt.
在两年前出台的被称为43号文的具有里程碑意义的政策指引中，中国国务院规定，地方政府融资平台(LGFV)——政府旗下的投资公司，但表面上独立于财政预算——不得新增政府债务。
But after a dip in 2015, off-budget debt has returned this year.
但经历了2015年的下降后，预算外债务今年又出现了回升。
Net bond issuance by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) hit Rmb1.07tn ($160bn) through late September, higher than the Rmb946bn issued for all of 2015, according to data from Wind Information.
万得资讯(Wind Information)的数据显示，截至9月底，地方政府融资平台的净债券发行额达到了1.07万亿元人民币（合1600亿美元），高于2015年全年发行的9460亿元人民币。
The resurgence reflects Chinese policymakers’ efforts to boost the economy through quasi-fiscal spending on infrastructure by state-owned enterprises to buffer a slowdown in manufacturing investment by private groups.
这一回升反映了中国决策者提振经济的努力，他们试图利用国有企业对基础设施的准财政支出缓冲私企制造业投资的放缓。
The International Monetary Fund estimates that China’s augmented fiscal deficit — a figure that includes LGFV borrowing alongside central and local government bonds — will reach 10.1 per cent of GDP in 2016, above the finance ministry’s official deficit target of 3 per cent for 2016.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，2016年中国扩大后的财政赤字——包括地方政府融资平台举债以及中央和地方政府债券——将达到国内生产总值(GDP)的10.1%，高于财政部为2016年确立的3%官方赤字目标。
There was some compromise from day one.
从一开始就有一定的妥协。
At the beginning they were talking about completely shutting down LGFVs.
开始，他们说是要彻底关闭地方政府融资平台。
But in the official document there was no firm deadline, said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong. There will be a few years’ grandfathering period.
但在那份官方文件中，没有严格的最后期限，摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻香港首席中国经济学家朱海滨表示，会有几年的缓冲期。
Particularly when local governments are facing fundraising difficulties, (LGFV) bonds will pick up.
尤其是在地方政府面临融资困难之际，（地方政府融资平台）债券将派上用场。
Local government debt ballooned in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, as Beijing gave local officials free rein to fund infrastructure projects with bank loans, bonds and shadow-bank credit.
2008年金融危机爆发后，由于北京方面允许地方官员自由利用银行贷款、债券和影子银行信贷为基础设施项目融资，地方政府债务出现了暴涨。
Most local borrowing occurred through LGFVs, whose legal status as corporations with an arms-length relationship to their government owners enabled them to skirt a legal ban on direct borrowing.
大多数地方债务都是通过地方政府融资平台举借的，这些平台既与政府所有者保持密切关系，又拥有公司的法律地位，使得它们能够避开对于地方政府直接举债的法律禁令。
Local-government debt totalled Rmb28.2tn at the end of 2015, equal to 41 per cent of gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund.
根据IMF的数据，截至2015年底，地方政府债务共计达28.2万亿元人民币，相当于GDP的41%。
In a paper published last week by the Brookings Institution, Bai Chong-en, economist at Tshinghua University in Beijing and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at China’s central bank, found that LGFV spending worsens capital allocation and likely led to a permanent decline in the growth rate of aggregate productivity and GDP.
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)上周发布的一篇文章中，清华大学(Tshinghua University)经济学家、中国央行货币政策委员会委员白重恩认为，地方政府融资平台支出恶化了资本配置，可能导致总生产率增长率及GDP增速的长期下滑。
Realising that the debt surge threatened financial stability, the central government in 2014 moved to impose strict limits on local borrowing.
意识到债务激增将危及金融稳定后，中央政府于2014年开始对地方举借债务进行严格限制。
Under the moniker of open the front door, block the back door, China's parliament revised the budget to allow provincial governments to issue municipal bonds directly for the first time, subject to an annual quota approved by China's legislature.
在修明渠、堵暗道的政策下，全国人大修订了预算法，首次允许省级政府根据其批准的年度限额直接发行地方政府债务。
Meanwhile, Document 43 appeared to forbid new debt issuance by LGFVs.
与此同时，43号文似乎禁止通过地方政府融资平台发行新债。
But signs of softening towards LGFV financing appeared within months.
但几个月内就出现了对于地方政府融资平台融资态度软化的迹象。
In March 2015, the cabinet directed banks to continue lending to LGFVs for projects already under way, a climbdown from the outright halt called for several months earlier.
2015年5月，中国国务院指示银行继续贷款给地方政府融资平台支持已启动项目，这对于几个月前要求完全停止贷款是一种让步。
Analysts now say that Document 43 was actually never intended to halt borrowing by LGFVs.
现在，分析师们表示，43号文实际上从未打算停止地方政府融资平台举债。
Instead, the goal was to clarify that LGFVs would henceforth maintain a genuinely arms-length relationship to their government owners, meaning their obligations would no longer be government debt.
相反，文件目的是要澄清，地方政府融资平台今后将与其政府所有者之间真正保持一定的距离，意味着它们的债务将不再是政府债务。
LGFVs can still borrow from the markets, but investors should be aware that LGFVs are transforming, and their relationship with their owner-government is changing, such that the investors should not take implicit government support for granted, said Ivan Chung, head of greater China credit research at Moody's, the rating agency.
地方政府融资平台仍然可以从市场上借款，但投资者应该清楚，地方政府融资平台正在转型，而且它们与政府所有者之间的关系正在变化，由此投资者不应想当然地认为政府会提供隐性支持，评级机构穆迪(Moody's)大中华区信贷研究负责人钟汶权(Ivan Chung)说。
We see more differentiation in pricing for the hundreds of LGFVs in the onshore bond market.
我们看到，在中国国内债券市场上，数百家地方政府融资平台的定价差距越来越大。
LGFVs belonging to cities, counties and districts from poorer or highly indebted regions are paying higher yields.
更穷或债务更重地区的市、县和区的地方政府融资平台，开始给出更高的债券利息。
As with other state-owned enterprises, the government was never been legally responsible for repaying LGFV debts.
正如对待其他国企一样，政府从来没有替地方政府融资平台偿还债务的法律责任。
Yet market participants widely understood such loans and bonds as carrying an implicit government guarantee.
然而，市场参与者普遍认为，地方政府融资平台的贷款和债券享有隐性政府担保。
That perception was bolstered by local governments’ frequent practice of providing cash subsidies or asset injections to keep their LGFVs solvent.
地方政府经常提供现金补贴或注入资产，以维持旗下融资平台的偿债能力的做法，加强了这种看法。
Document 43 was meant to mark a new era.
43号文被认为标志着一个新纪元。
Following an official audit to reveal the full extent of LGFV borrowing, the ministry of finance last year launched a debt-swap programme to transform LGFV bank loans into newly-legalised municipal bonds.
继一次揭示地方政府融资平台债务总规模的官方审计之后，财政部于去年推出了一项债务置换计划，以把地方政府融资平台的银行贷款置换成新合法化的地方政府债券。
In 2015, Rmb3.2tn worth of LGFV loans were swapped for bonds, and this year's target is Rmb5tn.
2015年，3.2万亿元人民币的地方政府融资平台贷款被置换为地方政府债券，而今年的置换目标是5万亿元人民币。
Analysts say the swap amounts to a one-off amnesty in which implicitly guaranteed LGFV debt is transformed into municipal bonds that are explicit obligations of provincial governments.
分析人士称，债务置换相当于一次性特赦，得到隐性政府担保的地方政府融资平台债务被转化为地方政府债券，成为省级政府的明确债务。
By around 2018, all LGFV bank loans in the latest audit, which covered the end of 2014, will have been transformed.
到2018年左右，上次审计发现的全部地方政府融资平台银行贷款（截至2014年底），都将被置换完毕。
For post-2014 debt, LGFVs are supposed to sink or swim on their own.
至于2014年后形成的债务，地方政府融资平台就要完全靠自己解决了。
The distinctive function of LGFVs versus governments are getting separated.
地方政府融资平台与政府各自不同的职能被分离开。
The new principal is ‘Whoever uses, borrows; whoever borrows, repays’, said Yan Liqiong, public utilities analyst at China Bond Rating, a local rating agency.
新原则是‘谁用，谁借；谁借，谁还’，中债资信评估有限责任公司(China Bond Rating)的公用事业部分析师闫丽琼说。
But the IMF remains unconvinced of LGFVs' supposed independence.
但IMF仍不相信地方政府融资平台的所谓独立性。
The fund estimates that when LGFV debt is included, China's local government debt will grow by 4.2tn in 2016, far above the official Rmb1.2tn quota for provincial bond issuance this year.
IMF估算，如果计入地方政府融资平台的债务，2016年中国的地方政府债务将增加4.2万亿元人民币，远高于官方规定的今年1.2万亿元人民币的省级政府发债限额。
Ms Yan believes compromise is inevitable as China seeks to wean itself from off-budget financing amid slowing growth.
闫丽琼认为，中国在经济增速放缓之际寻求戒掉预算外融资，妥协是不可避免的。
With infrastructure construction as an important lever to stabilise the economy, investment demand is very heavy.
由于基础设施建设是用来稳定经济的一根重要杠杆，投资需求非常大。
Relying only on the official bond quota isn’t enough, she said.
仅靠官方债券发行额度是不够的，她说。
