China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by nearly $70bn last month as the country’s central bank burned through more of its war chest in the fight to defend the renminbi from greater depreciation on the back of accelerating capital outflows.
上月,中国外汇储备减少了将近700亿美元。在资本外流加速的背景下,为了力挺人民币汇率、阻止其进一步贬值,中国央行消耗掉了更多的弹药。
Reserves at the People’s Bank of China fell $69.1bn to $3.051tn in November, a decline of 2.2 per cent from the previous month and the largest drop since January’s fall of 3 per cent. A median forecast from economists had predicted a fall of only 1.9 per cent from October.
11月,中国央行外汇储备减少691亿美元,至3.051万亿美元,环比降幅2.2%,为今年1月以来的最大降幅(1月的环比降幅为3%)。经济学家对11月环比降幅的预期中值仅为1.9%。
The fifth consecutive monthly fall indicates growing difficulty for policymakers. Since the renminbi’s sharp depreciation in August 2015, Beijing has sought to combat more severe softening against the greenback by selling dollars from the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves.
这是中国外汇储备连续第5个月下降,表明政策制定者面临的困难与日俱增。自2015年8月人民币大幅贬值以来,北京方面已努力通过出售央行外汇储备中的美元来阻止人民币相对美元进一步走软。
But a fair share of the latest drop in China’s dollar-denominated forex reserves was likely due to the greenback’s rally. The dollar index, which tracks the US currency’s value against a basket of peers, rose 3.1 per cent in November, which will have lowered the value of China’s reserves in other currencies (exact totals for which are a state secret).
不过,此次中国以美元计价的外汇储备减少,相当一部分原因很可能要归于美元的上涨。11月,衡量美元对一篮子主要货币汇率的美元指数上涨了3.1%,这将压低中国外汇储备中非美元货币(各币种储备额的确切数字属于国家机密)的价值。
The renminbi was in fact among the better-performing emerging markets currencies in the wake of last month’s US presidential election. Yet it is still down 6.1 per cent in the year to date and currently on track for its worst year since Beijing ended its hard dollar peg in 2005.
实际上,人民币是上月美国总统选举后新兴市场货币中表现较好的之一。尽管如此,人民币汇率今年迄今仍下跌了6.1%,今年有望成为2005年人民币不再紧盯美元以来人民币汇率表现最糟的一年。
A gap between the offshore and onshore renminbi exchange rates also re-opened in Asia trade on Wednesday morning – a signal that investors expect further depreciation.
周三亚洲早盘交易中,人民币离岸与在岸汇率之间的缺口也再次显现——这一迹象表明投资者预计人民币会进一步贬值。
The latest figure for forex reserves also arrives amid signs that ramped-up efforts to curb heavy capital outflows have begun to interfere with foreign businesses in China. Several European firms have been unable to remit dividends due to new foreign exchange controls that the EU Chamber of Commerce in Beijing called “disruptive to business operations”.
就在中国外汇储备最新数据公布之际,有迹象表明,中国不断加大的限制资本大规模外流的努力已开始影响在华外企。由于新的外汇管制规定,多家欧洲企业一直无法将股息汇出。位于北京的中国欧盟商会(European Chamber of Commerce)称,这些管制规定“扰乱了业务运营”。
In addition to planned restrictions on foreign mergers and acquisitions meant to limit capital flight disguised as outbound investment, Beijing also recently introduced curbs on gold imports and international renminbi payments to boost its currency and help protect its forex reserves.
为了限制伪装成对外投资形式的资本外逃,中国政府已计划对境外并购交易加以限制。除此以外,中国政府近期还引入了对黄金进口和国际人民币支付的限制,以提振人民币汇率并帮助保护其外汇储备。