At a low point last year Alibaba shareholders wondered what they had bought during the frenzy of the Chinese group’s 2014 New York listing. The shares were well beneath the flotation price. Any buyer’s remorse vanished on Thursday.
在去年的低点时，持股阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的股东们曾怀疑过，在这家中国集团2014年纽约上市引发的狂热中，自己是不是看走了眼。阿里巴巴的股价曾跌至远低于发行价。但在这周四，所有买家的懊悔都烟消云散。
The online commerce group forecast revenue growth of as much as 49 per cent this coming year, reminding us of the vibrancy of China’s ecommerce market. Alibaba is flying. So are shares that rose 10 per cent in morning trading. Free cash flow is strong — and growing fast. Alibaba will likely be giving more of it to shareholders.
这家电商集团预计，2018财年的营收增长将高达49%，提醒着大家中国电商市场的活力。阿里巴巴在飞翔，阿里巴巴股价也在飞翔，在早盘交易中大涨10%。自由现金流强健，且增长迅速。阿里巴巴很可能将向股东派发更多股息。
Jack Ma is the boss who overpromises and then overdelivers. At last June’s investor day, the Alibaba founder gave guidance on revenues for the year ahead for the first time. Not only did Alibaba later lift its 48 per cent forecast, it then beat even that figure with full-year results last month. That happy surprise fanned hopes of another sales blowout this year. The latest forecast was already 10 percentage points above what analysts had expected.
马云(Jack Ma)是一位喜欢过度承诺、然后又能超预期兑现的老板。在去年6月的投资者日大会上，这位阿里巴巴创始人首次给出了2017财年的营收指引。阿里巴巴后来不仅提高了48%的增长预测，而且上月发布的全年业绩还超过了这一数字。这一意外之喜激起了外界对2018财年销售井喷再现的希望。最新的预测已经比分析师预期的高出了10个百分点。
The new guidance shows the expansion of Alibaba, excluding newly consolidated Southeast Asian ecommerce business Lazada, is proceeding at its fastest rate since the initial public offering. Not bad for a business that has already more than doubled revenues over two years to $23bn. That pace leaves its rival ecommerce peers such as Amazon and certainly eBay eating dust. Only Tencent, which also benefits from rampageous Chinese consumption growth, can keep up.
新预测显示，阿里巴巴的扩张（不包括新并入的东南亚电商企业Lazada）正以自首次公开发行(IPO)以来最快的速度前进。这对一家已经在两年内将营收增长一倍多（至230亿美元）的企业来说，这挺不错。这一速度让亚马逊、eBay等电商竞争对手望尘莫及。只有同样得益于中国爆发式消费增长的腾讯(Tencent)能够与之匹敌。
Alibaba may have further surprises in store, hopefully of a kind more positive than a running investigation into accounting practices by US regulators. Though all of its operating profits come from ecommerce via key units Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba notes that its Alicloud business is now near to break-even. This mostly provides storage infrastructure as a service. Though much smaller, this division’s revenues doubled last year. Group free cash flow hit new highs last year of more than $9bn. Even better, estimates rise another 40 per cent over the next two years.
阿里巴巴可能会带来更多意外消息，希望是“好的意外”，而不是像美国监管机构正在调查其会计手法那样的消息。尽管所有经营利润都来自电商平台（淘宝(Taobao)和天猫(Tmall)是其中关键的两个），但阿里巴巴指出，其阿里云(Alicloud)业务如今已接近盈亏平衡。阿里云的主要服务是提供存储基础设施。尽管规模小得多，但该部门去年的收入翻了一番。阿里巴巴集团去年的自由现金流创下新高，达到逾90亿美元。更好的消息是，估计未来两年将再增长40%。
Once gasps of surprise have faded away, questions should follow about what to do with this bounty. Last month’s announced $6bn share buyback notwithstanding, expect Alibaba to pay even more cash back to shareholders.
惊喜之余，人们应该关注这些钱会被拿来做什么。阿里巴巴上月宣布了60亿美元的股票回购计划，预计阿里巴巴将向股东派发更多现金。
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