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Who’s hot and who’s not? The Chinese Communist party is set to find out in a leadership reshuffle next month. Chinese regulators are already sorting sheep from goats. The result, according to a report from Fitch, is a financial system that is broadly safer, but where risks are steep among smaller lenders.
谁是热门人物，谁不是？中国共产党将在下月的领导层换届中找到答案。中国监管机构已经开始区分良莠。根据惠誉(Fitch)的一份报告，其结果是金融体系在总体上更安全，但规模较小的银行风险较高。
The authorities are making progress in curbing risky short-term funding. Fitch found the outstanding balance of such loans has fallen for the first time in 10 years. The share of issuance with maturities of up to three months has declined to 49 per cent of the total. But smaller banks and finance groups are becoming increasingly reliant on this form of financing.
在限制高风险短期融资方面，当局正取得进展。惠誉发现，这类贷款的未偿付余额10年来首次下降。期限在3个月以内的贷款发放额在总额中所占比例降至49%。但规模较小的银行和金融集团正日益依赖这种融资形式。
Mid-tier lenders get 43 per cent of their funding from short-term sources; big state-owned banks receive only one-fifth. Demand for deposits has been strong because credit growth has outstripped gross domestic product. The ratio of deposits to loans has declined 9 per cent to 61 per cent since the end of 2013.
中等规模的银行43%的资金来自短期来源；而大型国有银行只有五分之一的资金来自这类来源。对存款的需求很强劲，因为信贷增长超过了国内生产总值(GDP)的增长。自2013年底以来，存款与贷款之比下降了9%，至61%。
State-backed money has helped ease the pressure as regulators start cleaning up grubbier corners of the system. Loans to Chinese banks from the People’s Bank of China quintupled to Rmb9tn ($1.4tn) in the three years to July. Non-bank financial institutions and big state banks, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with its large rural deposit basis, have also injected liquidity.
在监管层开始清理体系中比较阴暗的角落之际，政府支持的资金纾解了压力。在截至7月的3年里，中国人民银行(PBoC)给国内银行的贷款增长了4倍，达到9万亿元人民币（合1.4万亿美元）。非银行金融机构和大型国有银行，如中国工商银行(ICBC)，也注入了流动性。
Analysts at UBS reckon banks in the north-east, with its heavy industrial base, could be most affected by rule changes. Foreign investors are unlikely to lose much sleep: riskier lenders such as Shengjing Bank and Baoshang Bank are hardly household names.
瑞银(UBS)的分析师们认为，中国东北地区的银行，连同其重工业客户根基，可能受规则变化的影响最大。外国的投资者们也许不会太担心：风险较高的银行，如盛京银行(Shengjing Bank)和包商银行(Baoshang Bank)都不是很有名。
Prophets of a Chinese banking crisis have been wrong, so far. Lenders are supported by strong deposits and an agile central bank. At a pinch, reserve requirements of 17 per cent of deposits could be lowered if liquidity falters. But the clean-up is delivering the same message to smaller lenders some unhappy party cadres will receive next month: you are the weakest link.
目前看来，关于中国银行业危机的那些预言是错误的。银行得到雄厚存款和一个机敏的央行的支持。必要时，如果流动性出现问题，17%的存款准备金率可以下调。但清理工作向较小银行传递的信息，也是一些郁闷的党政干部下月会收到的信息：你是最薄弱的环节。
