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Global stocks touched record highs for a third straight day on Thursday, as the first trading week of 2018 built on last year’s gains, prompting a renowned critic of market bubbles to warn that investors should prepare for a “melt-up”.
周四，全球股市连续第三天触及历史高点。2018年的首个交易周在去年上涨的基础上进一步攀升，促使一位曾准确预测泡沫的知名市场评论员警告投资者要准备迎接“融涨”。
Signs of the stronger economic growth that was central to last year’s rally has continued this week as a slew of purchasing managers’ index data showed factory output increasing worldwide.
助推去年股市涨势的强劲经济增长势头本周延续，一批制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)显示世界各地的工业产出增长。
The FTSE All World index has added 2 per cent since traders and investors returned from the new year holiday, extending 2017’s rise of 22 per cent — the fourth-best year since the benchmark started in 1993.
自交易员与投资者结束新年假期以来，富时环球指数(FTSE All World Index)已经上涨了2%，延伸了2017年22%的涨幅。去年是该基准自1993年发布以来第四个最佳年份。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above the 25,000 level as Wall Street opened on Thursday and the S&P 500 pushed further into record territory with gains of 0.4 per cent. Surging technology share prices on Tuesday propelled the Nasdaq Composite past the 7,000 level for the first time.
周四华尔街开盘后，道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)攀升至25000点上方，而标普500指数(S&P 500)以0.4%的涨幅在创纪录区间进一步推进。周二，科技股股价飙升推动纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)首次冲破7000点大关。
Buoyed by the passage of tax reform late last month, Wall Street analysts have upgraded earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, while oil’s rally to its highest level since May 2015 has been a boon for energy shares — which have led the US benchmark over the past month.
受上月下旬税制改革通过的鼓舞，华尔街分析师纷纷提高对标普500成分股企业的盈利预测，而油价上涨至2015年5月以来的最高点，对能源股来说亦为一个利好；该板块在过去一个月领涨这一美国基准股指。
“Rarely has the outlook for a new year been as encouraging as it is today,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg. “We expect the synchronised global upswing to continue in 2018 at the above-trend pace reached in the last three quarters of 2017.”
“新一年的前景很少像今天这样令人鼓舞，”贝伦贝格银行(Berenberg Bank)首席经济学家霍格尔?施米丁(Holger Schmieding)说。“我们预计，2018年全球同步增长将延续2017年后三个季度高于趋势线的增速。”
Jeremy Grantham, the founder of Boston-based asset manager GMO who correctly called the dotcom and housing bubbles, said: “As a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognise that we are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market.”
总部位于波士顿的资产管理公司GMO的创始人杰里米?格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)曾正确预测网络股泡沫和房地产泡沫，他表示：“作为一个见证过股市巨大泡沫的历史学家，我也认识到目前有迹象显示，我们正进入这一持续已经很久的牛市的冲顶回落或融涨阶段。”
While the investment strategist had signalled a sharp change of tone in his longstanding bearish views last year, his latest forecast is his strongest statement yet on a “late bubble surge” for equities.
虽然这位投资策略师长期看跌的论调在去年急转弯，但他的最新预测是其对股市“后期泡沫式飙涨”的最强烈陈述。
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Average started the trading year on Thursday with a 3.3 per cent pop, its biggest one-day gain in more than a year which left the Japanese market at a 26-year high.
周四东京的日经225平均指数(Nikkei 225 Average)以上涨3.3%迎来新的交易年，这是其一年多以来的最大单日涨幅，使日本股市达到26年来新高。
Bond markets are also providing a benign backdrop for stocks, with a becalmed reaction to the prospects of very easy money ending this year from central banks. The 10-year US Treasury yield has traded in a tight range below 2.50 per cent since touching that high last month.
债券市场也为股市提供了一个良性的背景，对各大央行今年结束宽松货币政策的前景反应平静。自上月触及2.5%的收益率高点以来，美国10年期国债的收益率徘徊在低于这一水平的狭窄区间。
“The party has begun,” said Mr Schmieding. “Strong growth at low inflation will not last for ever. So far, however, neither the US nor Europe or Japan have built up serious excesses that would require a cleansing recession soon. The party can still last for a while.”
“派对开始了，”施米丁说，“低通胀水平的强劲增长不会一直持续下去。不过，迄今为止，美国、欧洲和日本都没有出现需要很快通过衰退来清理的严重过度行为。这场派对可能还会持续一阵。”
Romain Boscher, co-head of equities at Paris-based asset manager Amundi, said concerns about a bubble for US equities were overdone. “Compared to past crises (2000, 2007), we don’t see excess in terms of flows,” he said. “M&A will likely revive and support the market now that the tax reform has been legislated. Financial conditions are still benign.”
总部设在巴黎的资产管理公司Amundi的股票联席主管罗曼?博舍尔(Romain Boscher)表示，对美国股市泡沫的担忧是过度的。“与过去的危机（2000年和2007年）相比，我们并没有看到过多的流量。”他说，“考虑到税改已经成为法律，并购活动很可能复苏并支撑市场。金融状况依然是良性的。”
But Mr Grantham, who favours emerging market stocks, said the melt-up may end as early as this year — “within the next six months to two years is likely”.
但青睐新兴市场股票的格兰瑟姆表示，融涨可能会在今年告终——“很可能在未来6个月到2年之间”。
He added: “When most have talking heads yammering about Amazon, Tencent, and bitcoin and not Patriot replays — just as late 1999 featured the latest in Pets.com — we are probably down to the last few months. Good luck. We’ll all need some.”
他补充道：“当电视上的多数评论人士都滔滔不绝地谈论亚马逊(Amazon)、腾讯(Tencent)和比特币，而不是电视剧《爱国者》(Patriot)的重播的时候——就像1999年末电视上都是有关Pets.com的最新动态——我们很可能已经到最后几个月了。祝你好运。我们都会需要点运气。”
