What 's Motivating Shift in US-Iran Policy?
美国和伊朗决策圈就政策展开辩论　

　 
Iran and the United States have been going through what might be described as diplomatic mood swings. One minute, it seems as if the two countries are on the brink of war. The next, there seem to be small but perceptible policy shifts towards each other. Complex political calculations are being made in the corridors of power in Tehran and Washington.

伊朗和美国正在经历著一场“外交情绪摆荡”。这一分钟，两国似乎还处在战争边缘。下一分钟，双方却在向对方靠拢；政策变化虽然微小，但是却明晰可辨。复杂的政治计算正在德黑兰和华盛顿的权力圈中进行。

After insisting it would never take part in negotiations with Iran, the Bush administration recently sent a senior envoy to sit in on international talks with Iranian officials in Geneva on the nuclear issue. And a new offer of incentives aimed at getting Iran to halt uranium enrichment was put on the table by the United States and the European Union.

在坚持伊朗不停止浓缩铀活动就不参加和伊朗的谈判后，布什政府最近派遣了一位高级特使前往日内瓦，同伊朗官员一起参与有关伊朗核问题的谈判。为了促使伊朗停止浓缩铀活动，美国和欧盟还提出新的鼓励方案。

In an interview with NBC television, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cautiously welcomed what he described as "new behavior" on the part of U.S. officials. He said if the new U.S. attitude continues to change, Iran would respond positively.

在接受美国全国广播公司的电视采访时，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德审慎地欢迎他所说的“美国官员方面新的行为”。他表示，如果美国这种新的态度继续改变，伊朗也将做出积极的回应。

The Iranian president spoke to NBC's Brian Williams in Tehran.

艾哈迈迪内贾德在德黑兰通过翻译对美国全国广播公司主播威廉姆斯说：

"My question is, is such behavior rooted in a new approach - in other words, mutual respect, mutual cooperation, and justice," Ahmadinejad asked. "Or is this approach a continuation of the confrontation with the Iranian people, but in a new guise?"

“我的问题是，这种行为是源于一种新态度，也就是说相互尊重、相互合作和公正呢，还是说，这种态度其实是继续和伊朗人民对抗，只不过是新瓶装旧酒？”

But the bottom line is that nuclear negotiations remain in limbo. Iran has not responded to the new P5-Plus One offer, and Iran continues to enrich uranium, using what it said Saturday is a marked increase in the number of uranium centrifuges.

但问题的关键是，伊朗核谈判仍然毫无进展。对于安理会五加一所提出的新方案，伊朗仍然没有回应，而且继续浓缩铀，星期六甚至声称用于浓缩铀的离心机数量再度增加。

Would Obama Presidency Affect US-Iran Relations?

An Iran affairs analyst at the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, Ken Katzman, says the Iranian leadership is essentially stalling for time until a new U.S. president is elected.

美国无党派的“国会研究服务处”的伊朗事务分析家肯.卡兹曼说，在美国新总统选出之前，伊朗领导层基本上不会做出反应。

"The Iranians are betting that Mr. Obama is going to win the election and are forecasting that there will be a much softer line from the United States after that," Katzman said. "In that respect I think they are trying, the Iranians are trying, to stave off any U.S. or Israeli military action or even another sanctions resolution."

卡兹曼说：“伊朗现在笃定奥巴马会当选总统，而且预期美国往后的路线会柔和得多。就这个角度，我想伊朗人试图推迟美国或以色列的任何军事行动，或者新的制裁决议。”

Katzman adds that the softer tone of Iran's firebrand president reflects a wider debate in Iranian power circles.

卡兹曼还补充说，伊朗总统语调软化，反应了伊朗权力圈里正进行著范围更广的辩论。

"He is trying to adjust his demeanor to fit with some shifting opinion in Tehran. And I do think there is shifting opinion in Tehran," he added. "But I think that Ahmadinejad has successfully prevailed on the Supreme Leader and on the system for now not to make any dramatic concessions. What makes me somewhat optimistic about what is going is that there is a battle at all inside Iran as to what to do."

他说：“他试图调整他的言行举止来符合德黑兰某些改变中的意见，而且我确信德黑兰正在改变意见。但是我想，艾哈迈迪内贾德成功地说服伊朗最高领导人和整个伊朗领导层，目前还不要做出任何巨大让步。我对此有点乐观的是，伊朗内部各层面都在为该怎么做进行争议。”

What's Behind Shift in Bush Administration Stance?

The shift in the U.S. stance by the Bush administration is both puzzling and disappointing to American neoconservatives like former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton, who scoffs at the idea of an internal policy debate in Tehran on the nuclear issue.

布什政府立场的改变不但令人困惑，也让像前美国驻联合国大使约翰.伯尔顿这样的新保守主义者感到失望。伯尔顿嘲笑伊朗内部会为核问题进行辩论的想法。

"The State Department search for Iranian moderates is comparable to Captain Ahab's search for the great white whale," Bolton said. "It is an obsession within the State Department. There are obviously differences within the leadership cast inside Iran. But we have never detected any differences over the fundamental strategic objective of getting a deliverable nuclear weapon."

伯尔顿说：“国务院想寻找伊朗的温和派，就好比阿哈布船长想找寻大白鲸一样。国务院对此十分着迷。显然，伊朗领导层内部有意见分歧。但是在获得可投射的核武器这一终极目标上，我们没有发现任何不同。”

In his interview, President Ahmadinejad reiterated that Iran harbors no ambitions to build nuclear weapons.

在接受采访时，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德重申伊朗没有生产核武器的野心。

Is Deal With Iran in The Works?

Some analysts think a deal with Iran may already be in the works.

有些分析家认为，和伊朗的一项交易也许已经在达成之中。

Reva Bhalla of Stratfor, a private intelligence firm, believes there is some similarity to 1980 and 1981, when negotiations to free American hostages at the Tehran Embassy were conducted under President Jimmy Carter, but the Iranians would not release them until Ronald Reagan was sworn in.

私人情报机构“斯特拉福”的丽娃.巴赫拉相信，眼下的情况和1980年及1981年有某些类似。当时卡特总统已经在暗中和德黑兰就释放美国大使馆的美国人质问题进行谈判，但是伊朗一直等到里根总统上任后才把人质释放。

"They still at the same time deprived Carter of that foreign policy victory," Stratfor noted. "Instead, it went to Reagan. But the work was all done under Carter. So it could be the same kind of calculation where the Iranians may not want to give that foreign policy [victory] to the Bush administration, but are putting everything in place right now for that deal to happen. Because they really cannot take too many risks, not knowing what the next administration might bring."

巴赫拉说：“他们仍然没有让卡特享受到这场外交胜利，而是让里根享受了胜利的果实，尽管所有谈判工作都是在卡特任内完成的。所以伊朗人现在也可能会有同样的计算，他们或许不希望把外交政策胜利的果实交给布什政府，而是把所有事情准备好等待最好的时机。因为他们真的无法冒太多的风险，他们不知道下一届美国政府会带来什么。”

But other analysts say more and tougher economic sanctions will still have to be levied on Iran before there are significant concessions from Tehran.

但是其他分析家表示，在德黑兰做出比较大的让步之前，还是应该对伊朗施加更多而且更严厉的经济制裁。