Georgian Crisis 'Decisive Moment' in Russia-West Ties
格俄冲突导致俄罗斯与西方摊牌？
Georgia is emerging battered but defiant from its recent military confrontation with Russia. Russian troops still control significantly more Georgian territory than they did a month ago and no one can answer the key question: How can the occupiers be forced to leave? But Georgian officials are openly gleeful over Moscow's diplomatic isolation, as its friends decline to join the Kremlin in recognizing the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions. Georgians are beginning to see a silver lining in the clouds of war that still hang over their tiny but strategically-located nation.
尽管格鲁吉亚在最近跟俄罗斯的军事对峙中饱受创伤，但是仍然没有低头。俄罗斯军队控制的格鲁吉亚领土大大超过一个月以前俄军控制的格鲁吉亚领土，而且谁都不知道如何迫使占领者离开格鲁吉亚。不过，格鲁吉亚官员对莫斯科在外交上的孤立公开表示高兴，因为俄罗斯的友好国家拒绝跟克里姆林宫一道承认格鲁吉亚两个分离地区的独立。格鲁吉亚人开始看到，这个地处战略要地的小国上空虽然战争的硝烟弥漫，但仍有一丝光明。
Georgia's fate is still a very big question mark. Russia has issued a blunt challenge to the West to stay out of its Caucasus backyard. And there are serious doubts that Europe and the United States have the political will to make the Russians go home.
格鲁吉亚的命运仍然前途未卜。俄罗斯直截了当地向西方发难，要它们远离俄罗斯的高加索后院。而且人们严重怀疑欧洲和美国是否有政治意愿让俄罗斯人撤回俄罗斯。
The former president of Georgia's parliament, Nino Burjanadze, who now is a strong government critic, maintains it was a mistake to challenge Russia's provocative military actions in the breakaway South Ossetia region in early August. "I think we already lost the war, and I'm afraid there is no military solution of this situation," he said.
对政府持强烈批评立场的格鲁吉亚前议长布里扬纳吉强调，8月初在争取独立的南奥塞梯地区对俄罗斯发起挑衅性的军事行动是错误的。布里扬纳吉说：“我认为我们已经输了这场战争，恐怕通过军事途径解决不了目前的局势。”
But Burjanadze says Russia has also emerged a loser. "When I said we Georgians are not winners in this conflict, it does not mean Russia has won," he said. "Russia showed once again its real face, that it preferred to be the gendarme in international relations and not to be a distinguished member of the international community that will be respected."
不过，布里扬纳吉同时认为俄罗斯也失败了。布里扬纳吉说：“我说我们格鲁吉亚人在这场冲突中不是赢家，并不等于说俄罗斯赢了。俄罗斯再次让人们看到它的真面目，那就是，它渴望在国际关系中充当警察，而不想成为国际社会中受到尊重的杰出一员。”
President Mikheil Saakashvili's political rivals say he will have a lot of explaining to do if and when the crisis subsides. In the short term, almost all agree that the Kremlin's intense dislike for Mr. Saakashvili has made his position at home more secure.
格鲁吉亚总统萨卡什维利的政治对手认为，如果这场危机得以平息，在这场危机平息以后，萨卡什维利要对很多问题说清楚。从短期来看，几乎所有的人都认为，克里姆林宫对萨卡什维利的极度厌恶让他在国内的地位更加稳固。
But in the longer term, political analyst Archil Gegeshidze says Russia will surely succeed in creating internal political instability in Georgia.
不过从长期来看，政治分析人士格格什吉认为，俄罗斯肯定会成功地在格鲁吉亚国内制造政治动荡。
"In due course, I expect there will be some new waves of mass protests here in the country," he said. "To what extent this government will be able to survive those protests remains to be seen. But it is obvious there will be some internal political instability."
格格什吉说：“我预计不久以后，格鲁吉亚会爆发新的抗议浪潮。格鲁吉亚政府在多大程度上能够平息那些抗议，还有待观察。不过很明显，格鲁吉亚国内将会发生政治动荡。”
Nonetheless, Georgians are increasingly hopeful that the final outcome of their confrontation with Russia will be to their advantage. For one thing, Western countries that until recently had all but forgotten the Caucasus are again recognizing Georgia's critical strategic importance.
尽管如此，还是有越来越多的格鲁吉亚人认为，他们跟俄罗斯的对峙最终会对他们有利。首先，直到最近几乎遗忘了这个高加索国家的西方国家才再次认识到格鲁吉亚的战略地位极为重要。
The European Union is holding a summit to discuss how to respond to Russia's intervention. The United States has poured tens of millions of dollars of humanitarian assistance and uncounted military aid into Georgia, and it has sent several senior officials to Tbilisi, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Democratic Party vice presidential candidate Joe Biden. Vice President Dick Cheney is expected to arrive next week.
欧盟正在召开成员国首脑会议，讨论如何应对俄罗斯的这场干预。美国已经向格鲁吉亚投入数千万美元人道主义援助和数目不详的军事援助，并派出几位高级官员访问第比利斯，包括国务卿赖斯和民主党副总统候选人拜登。美国副总统切尼预计下星期访问第比利斯。
Georgia's minister for European integration, David Darchiashvili, says the crisis has prompted the government to accelerate its move to embrace, and be embraced by, western institutions.
格鲁吉亚欧洲一体化事务部部长戴维.达齐阿什维利认为，目前的危机促使政府加快接受西方制度以及被西方制度所接受。
"Until recently the top priority was NATO integration," he said. The EU is not as high a priority. But now what has happened, since the EU is playing the very important role, Europe's weight will increase in Georgia, and Georgia will be heading toward European integration more seriously."
达齐阿什维利说：“直到最近，格鲁吉亚的首要任务是加入北约军事一体化。加入欧盟还不是首要任务。可是现在的情况是，鉴于欧盟正在发挥非常重要的作用，欧洲的份量在格鲁吉亚将会增加，因此格鲁吉亚会更加严肃地对待逐渐融入欧洲大家庭这件事。”
Darchiashvili says the government is becoming increasingly confident that it did the right thing in confronting Russia, and that it will be able to defend itself against domestic critics.
达齐阿什维利表示，格鲁吉亚越来越坚信，跟俄罗斯对峙做得对，并且也坚信能够战胜来自国内的指责。
"I am ready to answer any questions," he said. "I do not see any major breach from our side, the principles we stayed for years. We do not want to confront Russia with it's huge resources, but it's Russia that wants to reconquer Georgia. So we should not defend ourselves?"
达齐阿什维利说：“我准备回答任何问题。我认为，在我们一方，我们多年来遵循的原则没有任何重大漏洞。我们不希望跟有丰富资源的俄罗斯冲突，是俄罗斯想重新征服格鲁吉亚。因此我们不应该自卫吗？”
Officials here have hardly been able to contain their glee at the diplomatic rebuff Russia has suffered, as close friends such as Belarus, Cuba and Venezuela have shied away from endorsing Moscow's recognition of independence for the breakaway Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
对于俄罗斯受到的外交挫折，格鲁吉亚官员难以抑制他们的兴奋。白俄罗斯、古巴和委内瑞拉等俄罗斯的友好国家都拒绝跟莫斯科一道承认格鲁吉亚分离地区阿布哈兹和南奥塞梯的独立。
National Security Director Alexander Lumaya says this kind of international response could force Moscow to think twice about its actions.
格鲁吉亚国家安全主任亚历山大.卢马亚认为，国际社会这样的反应可以迫使莫斯科对其所做所为三思而行。
"Russia found itself close to complete international isolation," he said. "It's not something they feel comfortable with. So the path of development of this situation and whether they will apply this invasion pattern to other countries in the neighborhood would depend on how strongly the international community would pursue the line it has taken."
卢马亚说：“俄罗斯发现自己快要完全受到国际社会的孤立。这种事不会让它们感到舒服。因此，局势的发展，以及俄罗斯是否会把对格鲁吉亚的入侵方式用于其它邻国，将取决于国际社会是否更加坚决地坚持目前的立场。”
A big test comes on Monday when European Union leaders are scheduled to launch what is expected to be a full-scale review of relations with Russia. While news reports from Paris indicate there will be no decision on sanctions, the meeting is giving Georgians hope that the Kremlin will be made to answer for its invasion.
星期一，欧盟领导人计划开始对欧盟跟俄罗斯关系进行一次全面审查，届时将是一次重大考验。尽管来自巴黎的消息显示，这次会议不过做出制裁俄罗斯的决定，但是这次会议给了格鲁吉亚希望，克里姆林宫必须对入侵格鲁吉亚做出解释。
Analyst Archil Gegeshidze sees Russia's move in Georgia as payback to the West for the Kremlin's perceived humiliation on issues such as Western recognition of Kosovo's independence, and expanding the NATO alliance up to the Russian border.
政治分析人士格格什吉认为，俄罗斯在格鲁吉亚的行动是它对西方国家在一些问题上让俄罗斯蒙羞的报复，比如西方国家承认科索沃独立，把北约势力范围扩大到俄罗斯边界等。
Gegeshidze calls this a "moment of truth".
格格什吉把这称为“摊牌时刻”。
"This is a very decisive moment. Either Russia succeeds and the West fails, or West succeeds and Russia fails," he said.
格格什吉说：“这是非常关键的时刻。不是俄罗斯成功，西方失败；就是西方成功，俄罗斯失败。”
Georgians say if Europe and the United States can muster the political will to stand up to Russia, and if Georgia is soon invited to begin the process of joining NATO, and if sufficient aid arrives to start the process of rebuilding, the outcome of the current crisis could be decidedly positive.
格鲁吉亚表示，如果欧盟和美国能聚集起政治意愿跟俄罗斯对抗，如果格鲁吉亚很快被邀请启动加入北约的程序，如果格鲁吉亚能得到充足的援助开始重建家园，这场危机就会有具有决定性的积极的结果。
But some analysts say those are some big 'ifs.'
不过一些分析人士认为，这些仅仅是“假设而已”。
