Russian Markets and Currency Hit by Georgian Conflict
格俄冲突使俄股市汇市损失惨重

　 
Russia's currency and stock market have suffered substantial losses since the outbreak of hostilities in Georgia three weeks ago. Investors are nervous going into the weekend over the possibility that European heads of state may apply sanctions against Russia during a special summit on Monday to discuss the Georgian crisis.

自从三个星期前俄罗斯武装入侵格鲁吉亚以来，俄罗斯的股票市场和外汇市场损失惨重。欧洲国家领导人星期一将举行一次特别的首脑会议，专门讨论格鲁吉亚危机。投资人特别担心欧洲领导人是否会决定对俄罗斯实施经济制裁。

Russia's RTS Index of leading stocks fell more than six percent the day hostilities broke out in Georgia and reached their lowest point in nearly two years when President Dmitri Medvedev formally recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

俄罗斯证券市场的主要指数俄罗斯交易系统指数(RTS Index)在俄罗斯军队入侵格鲁吉亚的当天暴跌了6%以上；而在俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫宣布正式承认南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹独立之后，RTS指数滑落到了差不多两年来的最低水平。

Bloomberg News reports the Russian ruble is headed for its biggest monthly decline against the U.S. dollar in more than nine years as investors reduce their Russian holdings. In addition, Russia's Central Bank says the country lost more than $16 billion in the week following the launch of military operations in Georgia on August 8. Financial observers attribute the loss to nervous investors pulling capital from Russia.

彭博新闻社报导说，由于投资人纷纷减持俄罗斯资产，卢布兑美元汇率在8月份的下降幅度是过去九年多来最大的。此外，俄罗斯中央银行说，在8月8日俄罗斯对格鲁吉亚采取军事行动之后的一个星期内，国家失去了160亿美元的外汇储备。

The RTS index reached its peak in April and has been ratcheting down since. Timur Nazardinov, chief trader at the Troika Dialogue Investment Bank in Moscow says the Georgian conflict accelerated the decline.

俄罗斯交易系统指数在今年4月攀升到历史最高水平，但是从那时候开始就一步步下滑。莫斯科投资银行Troika Dialogue Investment Bank的首席交易员纳扎尔蒂诺夫(Timur Nazardinov)指出，格鲁吉亚的武装冲突加快了俄国股市的下滑。

Nazardinov says events in Georgia brought uncertainty into the market, which naturally reacted negatively. He adds that investors witnessed declines of five to ten percent in the course of a day and the market reached bottom on Tuesday when President Medvedev recognized South Ossetian and Abkhaz independence.

他说：“格鲁吉亚的事件增加了市场的不确定性，市场的反应自然是负面的。投资人亲眼看到股市在一天之内就下跌5%到10%，尤其是在梅德韦杰夫总统宣布承认南奥塞梯和阿布哈兹独立之后，市场更是滑落到了谷底。”

Nazardinov notes the market experienced a late session rally that day as investors bought stocks at bargain prices. But Russian stocks going into the weekend are mostly down. The stock trader says there is some nervousness ahead of Monday's special EU summit to discuss a European response to the Georgian crisis.

纳扎尔蒂诺夫表示，尽管有些投资人趁低买入，使晚盘出现反弹，但总的来看，俄国股市基本上仍在走跌，因为投资人都对欧盟首脑会议针对格鲁吉亚危机做出何种反应感到心神不定。

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Thursday that Europe may apply sanctions against Russia. While a source in the office of French President Sarkozy now says that sanctions will not be considered, Timur Nazardinov says the very mention of them has made investors nervous.

法国外交部长库什内星期四曾说，欧洲有可能对俄罗斯实行经济制裁。尽管法国总统府的一位官员现在又说不会考虑经济制裁，但是纳扎尔蒂诺夫认为，只要“经济制裁”这个字眼被提一下就会让投资人神经紧张。

He says the word sanctions is a considerable negative on the market, and if the summit imposes serious measures, then the market will, at the very least, fall to those minimum levels seen two or three days ago, if not worse.

他说：“制裁这个词对于股市来说是相当负面的。假如欧盟峰会决定采取严厉措施，股市至少会下滑到两三年前的最低水平，甚至更差。”

But Sergei Karykhalin, chief analyst at the Capital Investment Bank in Moscow is not concerned about any negative Western influence on Russia, because he has confidence that Kremlin leaders factored possible retaliation into their overall strategy.

然而莫斯科资本投资银行(Capital Investment Bank)的首席分析师卡里哈林 (Sergei Karykhalin)对于来自西方的负面影响并不怎么担心，因为他认为，克里姆林宫领导人早已把可能出现的报复性因素都考虑进了他们的全面战略之中。

Karykhalin says Russian leadership added everything up and concluded that the United States and Europe cannot inflict any painful measures on the country, because it supplies Europe with 40 percent of its natural gas and is probably the world's number two oil producer behind Saudi Arabia. For that reason, Karykhalin says very few levers can be used to influence Russia.

卡里哈林说：“俄罗斯领导人把各种情况都考虑到了，并且认为美国和欧洲不可能对俄罗斯采取任何严厉的措施，因为欧洲40%的天然气都是俄罗斯提供的，而且俄罗斯是仅次于沙特阿拉伯的世界第二大石油生产国。正是由于这些原因，西方根本没有多少办法来影响俄罗斯。”

But Timur Nazardinov notes the Russian market has not had any influx of fresh capital for about six months. Analysts say Western concerns about investing in Russia could complicate Kremlin plans to modernize and diversify the country's economy, which currently relies on the commodity trade, particularly the sale of oil and gas.

可是纳扎尔蒂诺夫注意到，过去六个月来，俄罗斯市场几乎没有获得任何新的海外资本。分析人士普遍认为，西方对在俄罗斯投资感到担心会让克里姆林宫促使经济现代化和多样化的努力更加复杂。俄罗斯经济目前过分依赖原材料贸易，尤其是石油和天然气。