Growth Report Signals US Recession
美GDP第三季收缩 美学者评论

As many analysts expected, the U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP - the value of goods and services produced in the United States - experienced negative growth during the third quarter of this year. The Commerce Department says economic activity contracted at a 0.3 percent annual rate.

象许多分析人士预计的那样，美国国内生产总值(GDP)在今年第三季度经历了负增长。商业部表示，经济活动折合成年率收缩了百分之零点3。

Economists say it is a sign that the U.S. economy is headed toward recession. Consumer spending fell sharply in September as people worried about their jobs, savings and value of their homes, contributing to negative economic growth - a sharp contrast to nearly three percent annualized GDP growth during the second quarter.

经济学家们说，这是美国经济陷入衰退的迹象。9月份消费者支出急剧下降，人们担心自己的工作、储蓄和房屋价值，从而导致了经济的负增长。这同第二季度GDP出现近百分之3的增长形成鲜明对照。

On Thursday, Nouriel Roubini from New York University told the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee that recession - officially defined as at least two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth - is looming.

星期四，纽约大学的诺利尔·罗比尼教授在美国国会参众两院联席经济委员会作证时表示，至少连续两个季度经济出现负增长才能被正式界定为经济衰退，而这种衰退正在来临。

"Everybody out there feels it is a recession," said Roubini. "It is obviously a recession. The only debate at this point is how severe, how long and how protracted, in my view."

“人们都有衰退的感觉。在我看来，这显然是一场衰退。目前唯一有争议的是衰退有多严重，持续多长时间。”

A three percent drop in consumer spending was the first decline since 1991 and the biggest drop since 1980. The cut back had a particularly adverse effect on auto sales. Consumer confidence fell as the global credit squeeze and stock market decline intensified.

消费者支出下降了百分之3，这是1991年以来首次下降，也是1980年以来的最大降幅。消费者支出的下降尤其对汽车销售产生了负面影响。随著全球信贷紧缩和股市下降的加剧，消费者的信心也在下滑。

Former International Monetary Fund chief, economist Simon Johnson told the Joint Economic Committee that the U.S. government needs to boost spending to avert a catastrophic downturn.

国际货币基金组织的前总裁、经济学家西蒙·约翰逊在国会联席经济委员会上说，美国政府需要刺激消费，以避免经济出现灾难性下滑。

"We should consider a fiscal stimulus on the order of $450 billion, roughly three percent of U.S. GDP, which would be an extraordinary step to take under any circumstances unless you think we are entering into a potentially serious and prolonged recession," he said.

“我们应该考虑实行一个4500亿美元的财政刺激方案，金额大约占美国GDP的百分之3。这是在任何情况下都需要采取的额外措施，除非你们认为美国可能正在陷入一场严重的、持久的衰退。”

An earlier stimulus plan approved by Congress in February totaled only $150 billion.

国会今年2月通过的刺激方案的金额只有1500亿美元。

Economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the fall in home prices, says Congress needs to turn from supporting financial institutions on Wall Street to helping struggling consumers.

经济学家罗比尼曾经预计到房屋价格下降，他说国会需要从支持华尔街金融机构转为帮助陷入困境的消费者。

"Unless we also support Main Street by making sure that aggregate demand is not going to collapse, six months from now everything we've done to backstop the banks is going to be undone by collapse in aggregate demand," he said.

“除非我们通过确保总的消费需求不会崩溃而同时也对广大民众提供支持，否则在半年之内，我们为支持银行所做的所有努力将会因总的消费需求崩溃而付诸东流。”

Roubini says the government has already committed $3 trillion to recapitalize the banking system. Massive increases in government spending have already pushed the federal deficit to near record levels.

罗比尼说，政府已经动用了三万亿美元重整银行体系的资本。政府开支的大量增加已经把联邦赤字推到几乎创纪录的水平。