Political Experts Say Obama Faces Major Challenges
奥巴马新政府将面临重大外交挑战

　
The celebration of Barack Obama's election to the US presidency has died down and now the president-elect and his team begin to face the many choices that confront them as they prepare to assume office in January. Political experts and foreign policy analysts say the new president will face some difficult challenges right from the start.

奥巴马当选美国总统的各种庆祝活动已经平息。现在，这位新总统和他的团队为明年1月入主白宫作准备的同时，也开始面临许多的选择。政治专家和对外政策分析人士说，新总统上任伊始将面临诸多艰难挑战。

One of the most obvious problems for President-elect Obama is that he will enter office facing problems left over by outgoing President George Bush. Those problems include a financial crisis, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the prospect of Iran developing a nuclear weapon and a number of other situations all of which demand immediate attention.

当选总统奥巴马面临的一个最明显问题之一就是即将离任的布什总统留下的种种问题。这些问题包括金融危机、伊拉克和阿富汗战争、伊朗可能在研制核武器的问题以及其他需要马上应对的一系列问题。

Rice University Political Science professor Earl Black, co-author of the book Divided America, says new presidents have often had to deal with the problems left behind by their predecessor.

"He will face the situation, for example, that faced Ronald Reagan when he became the Republican president in January, 1981," said Earl Black. "He will have inherited all the problems associated with the previous administration."

“例如他将面临里根总统1981年1月作为共和党总统上台时所面临的问题。他将继承前任政府遗留下的所有问题。”

Black says another problem for President-elect Obama may be the high expectations he has raised among the people who supported him.

布莱克说，新总统奥巴马面临的另一个问题可能是他使支持者对他的期望太高。

"Since a lot of Obama's message emphasized hope and change and, to a large degree he was somewhat general about those, he has attracted, obviously, millions of supporters not all of whom probably agree on what change they want and what hopes they are hoping to be satisfied," he said.

“因为奥巴马的很多信息都强调希望和变革。他的许诺在很大程度上有些宽泛。很明显，他吸引了上千万的支持者，但这些人在希望什么样的变革，以及希望实现哪些目标方面，并不一定都持相同意见。”

Some of the biggest and most frightful challenges facing the new president will be in foreign affairs. Peter Zeihan, Vice President of Analysis for Stratfor, a Texas-based private intelligence and analysis company, says all presidents entering the White House find their options are limited. But, he says, President Obama will have some special problems to address.

新总统面临的一些最大，也是最难以处理的挑战来自外交事务。德克萨斯一家私营情报分析公司(Stratfor)副总裁彼德.泽汗说，所有入主白宫的新总统都会发现，其实，他们的选择有限。但是，泽汗说，奥巴马需要解决一些特别的问题。

"First, you have Iraq," he said. "He has promised his supporters that he will pull out as soon and as quickly as possible. However, unless he wants to turn around and re-deploy and go to war with Iran a year or two later, he has to be careful in how he does that. There needs to be some sort of agreement with Iran over the future of Iraq. Barring that, if you just have a naked pullout, there is really absolutely nothing that would stop the Iranians from taking over, whether directly or indirectly."

“首先是伊拉克问题。他向支持者承诺将尽快从速从伊拉克撤军。不过，除非他改变立场，并进行重新部署，在一两年后与伊朗打一场仗，否则，他必须小心从事。在伊拉克问题上，他需要与伊朗达成某种协议。如若不然，仅仅是纯粹地撤离，绝对不可能阻止伊朗人占领伊拉克，不管是通过直接的，还是间接的方式。”

Such a move by Iran, Zeihan says, would endanger the Persian Gulf oil supplies and force a US response. Zeihan says the situation in Afghanistan and the refuge Taliban fighters have in nearby Pakistan will also challenge President Obama.

泽汗说，一旦伊朗采取这样的举措，就将危及波斯湾的石油供应，迫使美国不得不对此作出回应。泽汗说，阿富汗局势以及躲藏在邻国巴基斯坦的塔利班残余势力同样对奥巴马构成挑战。

"The way that Obama has outlined that he will make a difference in this conflict is by tapping Europeans and calling on NATO allies to do more," he said. "Well, as the Bush administration has discovered, much to its chagrin, the Europeans don't have the forces in the first place to deploy, second, are not willing, as a general rule, to deploy them in combat situations and third, because of the global finance crisis, most of them are pulling their forces home from Afghanistan."

他说：“奥巴马提出的规划是，他在处理这个冲突上会有所不同，那就是，他会召集欧洲人，呼吁北约盟友采取更多的行动。但是，正如布什政府已经发现的，令他们十分苦恼的是，第一，欧洲人没有部队可以部署；第二，欧洲人一般不愿意把他们的部队部署在战斗地区；第三，受全球金融危机的影响，欧洲大多数国家都在把自己的军队从阿富汗撤军。”

Zeihan says the new US president would risk provoking conflict with Pakistan if he sends US forces across the border from Afghanistan to pursue the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

泽汗说，如果新总统派遣美国部队越过阿富汗边境进入巴基斯坦，追剿塔利班和基地分子，有可能引发与巴基斯坦的冲突。

He says the third security problem the Obama administration will face internationally is the increasing boldness of Russia, which is aggressively countering US attempts to expand NATO in eastern Europe. Zeihan says these are just some of the challenges for the new president.

泽汗说，奥巴马政府面临的第三个安全问题是，俄罗斯在国际上变得越来越无所顾忌。美国试图把北约扩大到东欧地区的计划，遭到俄罗斯的强势对抗。泽汗说，这些只是新总统面临的部分问题。

"These are just the three security challenges, all of which, honestly, are more than enough to keep any president busy independently," said Zeihan. "All three together-Whew! I do not envy Obama. I would not have envied McCain, either."

“这些仅仅是三个安全问题而已。老实说，这其中的任何一个问题就足以让新总统忙得团团转了。如果三个问题一起出现，怎么办！我不羡慕奥巴马。即使是麦凯恩，我也不会羡慕他。”

Zeihan says US options will be limited in the years ahead because the country is over extended militarily and financially.

泽汗表示，由于美国近年来在军事和财政上的过度支出，美国的选择其实有限。