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The next two weeks will be critical for the EU's future with Germany taking a pivotal role and here's why: Germany may be the euro zone's economic power houses, pockets are deep. But they are fraying. Germany's central bank,the Bundesbank, is already on the hook for at least 800 billion dollars of peripheral country debt. And that's about a quarter of German GDP. This can't just be about Germany bank-rolling bailouts. Everyone is saying they need a deeper, more intergrated EU. Everyone of course, except for European politicians.
接下来的两周，对欧盟的未来至关重要。德国在欧盟担任了关键的角色，理由很充分：德国或许是欧元区的经济发动机，德国人民荷包里有钱，但也正在缩水。德国中央银行已经陷入至少8000亿美元的外围国债危机，相当于德国1/4的GDP。这不能仅仅是德国经济救助的问题。人人都说他们需要一个更加完整，协调性更好的欧盟！当然欧洲的政客除外。
Now the marriage analogy here might be cliche but it so aptly describes the EU: married, in name only. They have yet to consummate this thing. Now what would that take will first, politically, they would have to take a big step to smooth out the economic bumps in weaker countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal.
现今，也许拿婚姻来譬喻欧盟已是老生常谈，但也确切地描述了欧盟的现状：结婚了，不过只是名义上的。他们还没有完善这个体系。现在欧盟首当其冲的任务是，在政治上迈出一大步来缓解经济弱国（如希腊，西班牙和葡萄牙）的危机。
They are nursing recessions, high unemployment, and some are now suggesting that austerity has actually been self-defeating and responsible for triggering those recessions. Now that would mean committing to a more federal system, that in an orderly way makes transfer payments, a lot of those transfer payments coming from countries like Germany, those transfer payments going from strong countries to weaker ones whenever necessary. This may seem like Germany is committing to the footing the bill, with absolutely no payback, but the risk of contagion is real and here is why this is just one measure: if Spanish banks fail, German Banks remain the most exposed. I mean look at this: Germany taking on 10%. The pressure for Germany and others to fully commit to Europe in every way is strong and blunt, and many like hedge fund billionaire George Soros are saying: Look . This is the warning，you have little time and little room for debate now.
这三国是经济萧条，高失业率的温床，一些成员国认为厉行紧缩政策只会弄巧成拙，会引发经济萧条。那意味着一国对多国负责，只是一种旧的转移支付方式。许多转移支付的资金都来自德国这样的国家，一旦有需要，资金则由强国转到弱国。看起来德国似乎是在争付账单，却永远得不到回报。但事态蔓延扩散至多国的风险是存在的，这就是为什么只有一个解决方案：如果西班牙银行倒闭，德国则是最大的受害者。我的意思是：德国的损失占总体10%。德国和其他国家面临的来自欧洲的压力很大，也很直接。正如对冲基金亿万富翁乔治·索罗斯说道：“看。这就是警告，你没有时间，没有余地去争论。”
Paula, CNN, London.
宝拉，CNN，伦敦。
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