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Cities are the crucible of civilization.
城市是文明的熔炉
They have been expanding,
它们一直在扩张
urbanization has been expanding,
城市化的扩张速度
at an exponential rate in the last 200 years
在过去的200年里变得越来越快
so that by the second part of this century,
到了本世纪下半叶
the planet will be completely dominated
整个地球都将被城市
by cities.
所主宰
Cities are the origins of global warming,
城市是全球变暖的源头
impact on the environment,
影响着环境
health, pollution, disease,
卫生，污染，疾病
finance,
金融
economies, energy
经济，能源
they're all problems
这些问题
that are confronted by having cities.
都是由城市引起的
That's where all these problems come from.
这是所有这些问题的源头
And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing
我们感觉可持续性方面的问题
in terms of sustainability questions
正如海啸般扑面而来
are actually a reflection
而这些问题实际上
of the exponential increase
是与日俱增的
in urbanization across the planet.
全球城市化进程所产生的效应
Here's some numbers.
我们来看几个数字
was less than a few percent urbanized.
城市化程度不到百分之几而已
It's now more than 82 percent.
而现在则超过了82%
The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.
全球的城市化程度在几年前就超过了百分之五十
China's building 300 new cities
中国在将来的20年内
in the next 20 years.
建设300座新城市
Now listen to this:
请注意
Every week for the foreseeable future,
在将来的每一周
until 2050,
一直到2050年
every week more than a million people
每一周，将有100万人
are being added to our cities.
进入我们的城市
This is going to affect everything.
这将对一切产生影响
Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,
在座的各位，如果你一直活着
is going to be affected
你就必定要受到
by what's happening in cities
城市化所带来的
in this extraordinary phenomenon.
翻天覆地的影响
However, cities,
然而，城市
despite having this negative aspect to them,
尽管存在负面效应
are also the solution.
但城市也是问题解决的出路
Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets
这是因为城市是除尘器和吸铁石
that have sucked up creative people,
吸纳了所有创意人才
creating ideas, innovation,
创造着思想，革新
wealth and so on.
财富等等
So we have this kind of dual nature.
我们具有这样的双面性
And so there's an urgent need
我们迫切需要运用
for a scientific theory of cities.
城市的科学原理
Now these are my comrades in arms.
这些是我全副武装的同志们
This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,
这群杰出的人士做了这些工作
and they've done all the work,
都是他们的功劳
and I'm the great bullshitter
我只会胡吹海侃
that tries to bring it all together.
做个总体介绍
So here's the problem: This is what we all want.
这里有个问题，这是我们希望的结果
The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050
到了2050年，地球上的10亿人
want to live in places like this,
都想生活在这样的地方
having things like this,
拥有这些东西
doing things like this,
进行这样的活动
with economies that are growing like this,
在这样的经济增长情况下
not realizing that entropy
而没有意识到
produces things like this,
人口过剩会造成这样
this, this
这样，这样
and this.
和这样的情况
And the question is:
问题是
Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York
爱丁堡，伦敦和纽约
are going to look like in 2050,
到了2050年会变成这样
or is it going to be this?
还是这样
That's the question.
这是个问题
I must say, many of the indicators
我不得不说，许多这样的参数
look like this is what it's going to look like,
似乎更可能是它们将来的样子
but let's talk about it.
我们来探讨一下
So my provocative statement
我敢大胆地说
is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.
我们急需一个严谨的城市科学理论
And scientific theory means quantifiable --
科学理论意味着它是可量化的
relying on underlying generic principles
依据基本的普遍原理
that can be made into a predictive framework.
我们能够推导出一个可预见的结构
That's the quest.
这是我们的目标
Is that conceivable?
这可能吗
Are there universal laws?
有这样的普遍定律吗
