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This list is just for illustration; it is incomplete.
这个列表仅仅是一个例子，它是不完整的。
The list on the right is also incomplete.
右边的列表也一样不完整。
It's a list of types of pathology that are age-related,
它们只是一种与年龄
and it's just an incomplete list.
有关的病的列表。
But I would like to claim to you that this list in the middle is actually complete --
但这中间的我主张是完整的列表，
this is the list of types of thing that qualify as damage,
所有代谢副作用有资格被称为“损害”，
side effects of metabolism that cause pathology in the end,
最终会导致病理
or that might cause pathology.
或可能造成病理类型。
And there are only seven of them.
而这列表只有七个。
They're categories of things, of course, but there's only seven of them.
当然，这七个是类别，但只有七个。
Cell loss, mutations in chromosomes, mutations in the mitochondria and so on.
细胞损失，染色体突变，在线粒体基因突变等。
First of all, I'd like to give you an argument for why that list is complete.
首先，我想给你们解释一个为什么我认为这份列表是完全的。
Of course one can make a biological argument.
当然，我们可以使用生物学的角度来争论。
One can say, "OK, what are we made of?"
可以说，好，我们是什么做的？
We're made of cells and stuff between cells.
我们是由细胞和细胞间的东西。
What can damage accumulate in?
“损害”可以累积在那里？
The answer is: long-lived molecules,
答案是，长期存在的分子里，
because if a short-lived molecule undergoes damage, but then the molecule is destroyed --
因为如果一个短暂寿命的分子遭到破坏，它将会在寿命完了后被销毁 –
like by a protein being destroyed by proteolysis -- then the damage is gone, too.
就像蛋白质被水解摧毁，累积的损害也一起被销毁了。
It's got to be long-lived molecules.
所以“损害”累积的地方一定是很长寿命的分子里。
So, these seven things were all under discussion in gerontology a long time ago
因此，这七个东西，都是由老年学士很久以前就讨论过了。
and that is pretty good news, because it means that,
这是相当好的消息，因为这意味着，
you know, we've come a long way in biology in these 20 years,
尽管我们在这二十年里对生物学有着很大的成就，
so the fact that we haven't extended this list
这份列表还只有七样东西是一个非常好的迹象，
is a pretty good indication that there's no extension to be done.
因为它显示它已不可再增加了。
However, it's better than that; we actually know how to fix them all,
这个消息比你们想象的更好，
in mice, in principle -- and what I mean by in principle is,
因为我们在原则上知道如何在老鼠里解决所有这些七样东西，我所谓的原则指的是，
we probably can actually implement these fixes within a decade.
我们或许可以真正实现在十年内这些修复治疗。
Some of them are partially implemented already, the ones at the top.
其中有些部分已经落实了，尤其是在顶部的。
I haven't got time to go through them at all, but
我没有时间一个一个的解释，
my conclusion is that, if we can actually get suitable funding for this,
但我的结论是，如果我们能够得到适合的资金，
then we can probably develop robust mouse rejuvenation in only 10 years,
那么我们或许可以在只有十年内成功发展强健的大规模人类再生，
but we do need to get serious about it.
但我们确实需要认真想想它。
We do need to really start trying.
我们需要真正开始尝试。
So of course, there are some biologists in the audience,
对于观众里的生物学家，
and I want to give some answers to some of the questions that you may have.
你们可能有一些问题，我会回答你们。
You may have been dissatisfied with this talk,
你可能对这个讲座有些不满，
but fundamentally you have to go and read this stuff.
但你必须去阅读这些内容，
I've published a great deal on this;
我已经刊登了对老化很多的资料；
I cite the experimental work on which my optimism is based,
而且我就凭着这些研究为基础对人类老化治疗科技持乐观态度，
and there's quite a lot of detail there.
里头的细节还有很多。
The detail is what makes me confident
这些细节使我对我在这里预测的
of my rather aggressive time frames that I'm predicting here.
相当挑战性的时间表更加有信心。
So if you think that I'm wrong,
如果你觉得我错了，
you'd better damn well go and find out why you think I'm wrong.
我希望你能看了这些资料以及研究报考后再来解释为什么你认为我是错的。
And of course the main thing is that you shouldn't trust people
最主要的是你不应该相信
who call themselves gerontologists because,
自称是老年医学的人，
as with any radical departure from previous thinking within a particular field,
因为在任何领域里
you know, you expect people in the mainstream to be a bit resistant
如果有激进的思想变化，主流的人一定有点抵抗
and not really to take it seriously.
而且不认真的对待它。
So, you know, you've got to actually do your homework,
所以，你必须真正做好准备工作，
in order to understand whether this is true.
才能了解这是否属实。
And we'll just end with a few things.
我们在结束前就讲讲几件事。
One thing is, you know, you'll be hearing from a guy in the next session
有一件事就是，你将会在下届会议听一个家伙说起以前，
who said some time ago that he could sequence the human genome in half no time,
当他说他可以测序人类基因组时，人们是怎么的回答他。
and everyone said, "Well, it's obviously impossible."
每个人都说：“这是不可能的。”
And you know what happened.
可是你也知道，
So, you know, this does happen.
这确实发生了。
We have various strategies -- there's the Methuselah Mouse Prize,
我们有不同的策略，有玛士撒拉奖，
which is basically an incentive to innovate,
这基本上是一个鼓励创新，
and to do what you think is going to work,
做你认为是可行的，
and you get money for it if you win.
如果成功的话，你就可以赢钱。
There's a proposal to actually put together an institute.
还有一个计划建议组织一个机构，
This is what's going to take a bit of money.
可是这将会需要点钱。
But, I mean, look -- how long does it take to spend that on the war in Iraq?
我的意思是，你看我们在伊拉克战争上耗这么久浪费了多少钱？
Not very long. OK.
不会再久吧。好吧。
