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Don't invest in Internet
不要投资互联网
I can live all day inside the Internet. I can talk to my friends, listen to music, watch TV, trade stocks, play games, do work-all on the Internet. From 6 a.m. until 10 p.m. every day I can spend on the Internet and it would be a day well spent.
我可以整天在互联网上生活。我可以跟朋友聊天、听音乐、看电视、炒股票、玩游戏、工作——一切都在网上进行。每天从早6点到晚10点我都花在网上，这一天过得很不错。
But run for the hills when it comes to advising clients to invest in the Internet.
但是当要建议客户投资互联网的时候，这就是自寻死路了。
Columnist and portfolio manager James Altucher explains to Simon Constable why Google, Facebook and other Internet plays are dead from an investment standpoint. Plus what stocks are hot in the rest of the economy.
专栏作家、投资经理詹姆斯阿尔托奇向西蒙康斯特布尔解释为何Google、Facebook和其他网络应用将由于一个投资观点而死亡,以及来自其他经济领域的股票很热门的原因。
The days of infinite margins, 1,000% productivity gains, and growth of market throughout the universe are long over. Internet companies now should be treated, at best, like utility companies that get bought at about 10 times earnings and sold at 13 times earnings. Even then, I’m not sure I would give the Internet sector the same respect as the monopoly-protected utility sector.
拥有无限保证金,1000%生产率收益和全球市场扩张的日子已经够长了。互联网公司现在需要被买掉,最好就像公共事业公司那样以大约10倍的收益买进再以13倍的收益卖出。尽管如此，我不确定我会给予互联网行业同垄断保护性公共事业公司同样的重视。
Don’t just ask me. Ask the best. Nobody can figure out a business model.
别问我,问最懂这方面的人。没有人能构建一个商业模式。
Time Warner would rather keep their legacy old-media businesses like People magazine than hold onto one of the biggest Internet companies out there, AOL. And News Corp. is shaking up its My Space business as it figures out its next steps (News Corp. owns Dow Jones, publisher of this newswire). Microsoft has spent billions on Internet strategy without a dime of profit. And even Google can’t seem to ftnd any other business model other than the one they stumbled into when they bought Applied Semantics in 2001 that had a little piece of software called AdSense. And the new guys: Twitter and Facebook are still scrambling for profits despite blistering usage growth.
时代华纳更愿意保留他们的旧媒体业务的遗产比如《人物》杂志,而不是抓着最大的互联网公司之一——美国在线不放。新闻集团正在整顿他的Myspace业务,使之按照设计的下一步走（新闻集团拥有道琼斯,新闻专线的出版商）。微软在互联网战略上已经花费 了数十亿美元,却没有获得一分贏利。即便是Google,除了他们在 2001年买下Applied Semantics公司时获得的该公司拥有的一个小软件AdSense让他们无意中撞了大运之外，看起来也没有找到其他商业模式。同时那些新手:Twitter和Facebook都还在寻求贏利,尽管其使用量在不断飙升。
What about the nuts-and-bolts guys? Cisco, at 15 times earnings, trades in line with the S&P 500. Buy them when they start giving a steady dividend.
那么如何看待那些在基础领域的家伙昵？比如Cisco,它有15倍的收益,对待它与对待标准普尔500指数的方式是一样的。当他们开始派发稳定的红利的时候就买吧。
Let’s face it. Electricity greatly improved our quality of life. But I'm not going to get excited about buying a basket of utility companies. Same for the Internet. Can’t live without it, but can’t live with it (in my portfolio).
让我们面对现实吧。电在很大程度上改善了我们的生活质童。但是我不会对购买一堆公共事业公司感到兴奋的。对于互联网行业也是如此。（在我的投资组合中）没它不行,光有它也不成。
So what do we do?
那么我们该怎么办？
In this economy, it’s back to the basics. Regardless of how you feel about $1 trillion in stimulus (with more probably on the way), the best growth is going to come from the companies that help us spend that stimulus.
在现在的经济状况下，我们需要回归基础行业。无论你对1万亿美元经济刺激的感受如何,最好的增长都将来自于那些帮助我们消化经济刺激的公司。
Check out LNN, Lindsay Corporation, that does boring stuff like highway repair (they make those orange cones) and helps upgrade water infrastructure. With half of all hospital beds in the world filled by people with dirty water-related illnesses, this one is a good bet.
看看LNN、lindsay Corporation,做着诸如维修髙速公路的烦人工作(他们做那些橙色的圆锥 筒)并帮助升级水务设施。鉴于世界上一半的医院床位被患有因脏水致病的人所占据,这是一笔好生意。
Or little known Colfax Corporation, CFX. At nine times forward earnings, this company is in the “fluid handling” business. Boring. But in a resource-starved world we need them to get oil quickly through the pipelines and into the refineries. And we can’t forget about ASTE, Astec Industries, which is like the “Amazon of Asphalt” and is a major player in highway repair (think stimulus again).
还有不知名的科尔法公司、CFX，它们都具有9倍的收益前景。他们从事“流体处理”业务,工作很烦人。但是在一个资源饥渴的世界,我们需要他们迅速地通过管道把石油输入精炼厂。还有别忘 TASTE,Astec Industries,就像“沥青的亚马逊雨林”,它是高速公路维修的主力军(再想想经济 刺激)。
The exciting plays right now are the companies that are rebuilding the country along with the economy. Save the Internet for your iTunes downloads. But focus client portfolios on the future.
令人振奋的正是那些与经济同步重建国家的公司。把那些网络公司存起来用于你的iTune下载吧。但是客户投资组合要着眼未来。
