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If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,
倘若“地轴倾斜”理论被观察否定了
its defenders would have had nowhere to go.
它的支持者们就无路可退了
No easily implemented change could make that tilt
没有什么信手拈来的变动能让地轴的倾斜
cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.
在两个半球产生相同的季节
The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all progress.
对难以修改的解释的探寻是所有进步之源
It's the basic regulating principle of the Enlightenment.
这是启蒙运动的基本纲领
So, in science, two false approaches blight progress.
在科学领域，有两种错误阻碍进步
One is well known: untestable theories.
第一种众所周知:无法验证的空头理论
But the more important one is explanationless theories.
但更重要的却是不带解释的理论
Whenever you're told that some existing statistical trend will continue,
每当别人告诉你某个统计数据趋势将会延续下去
but you aren't given a hard-to-vary account of what causes that trend,
而又不给你一个难以改动的好解释，告诉你这趋势为什么存在
you're being told a wizard did it.
他几乎就是在说某个大仙做了个法就成这样了
When you are told that carrots have human rights
当别人说胡萝卜也是有人权的
because they share half our genes --
因为我们有一半基因胡萝卜也有
but not how gene percentages confer rights -- wizard.
却不说明相同基因的比重怎么引出人权--大仙又来了
When someone announces that the nature-nurture debate
当有人宣布认知论中经久不息的“先天-后天”大辩论
has been settled because there is evidence
已经解决了，因为有证据说明
that a given percentage of our political opinions are genetically inherited,
某个百分比的政治主张是先天遗传的
but they don't explain how genes cause opinions, they've settled nothing.
但他们却不解释基因怎么导致某些意见，它们就什么也没解决。
They are saying that our opinions are caused by wizards,
他们只是说我们的主张是变来的
and presumably so are their own.
估计他们自己的也是变来的
That the truth consists of hard to vary assertions about reality
真理体现在对现实提出的无法轻易改动的论断
is the most important fact about the physical world.
这是物质世界中最重要的一个事实
It's a fact that is, itself, unseen, yet impossible to vary. Thank you.
这一事实本身其实也是看不见的，但却不可能被东改西改。谢谢大家。
