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Europe Russia’s president
欧洲 俄罗斯总统
Alone at the top
高处不胜寒
All this feeds a sense of uncertainty, with the Moscow political elite “disoriented,” according to Mr Petrov. Investigative files on the two defence cases have existed for years, only to resurface now. Are the rules changing? What could be unearthed tomorrow, and against whom? At the same time, the mood of rudderless leadership has been worsened by questions over Mr Putin’s health.
据彼得罗夫所言，莫斯科的政治精英们“迷失了方向”，所有这一切增加了迷茫的感觉。国防部的两个腐败案例的调查卷宗已然存在好多年了，只不过现在是重新露面而已。是规则在发生变化吗？明天会揭露出什么？会针对谁呢？与此同时，对于普京总统健康问题的疑问使人们“领导缺乏领头人”的情绪更加恶化。
For much of October and November, Mr Putin worked at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, rarely going to the Kremlin and cancelling foreign trips to Bulgaria, India and Turkey (though he is now going to Turkey next week). News reports discussed a possible back problem caused by flying an ultralight plane beside some wild cranes in September. The Kremlin dismissed this, saying only that Mr Putin had pulled a muscle while exercising. In another political system, the story might have stopped there, but in Russia the mystery took on symbolic resonance.
在十月到十一月的大部分时间里，普京都在莫斯科外的Novo-Ogaryovo的住所办公，很少去克林姆宫，并且取消了去保加利亚，印度和土耳其（虽然下星期他就将出访土耳其）的访问行程。新闻报道讨论总统可能是因为9月乘坐的轻型飞机在一些野生鹤旁边飞行而使背部出了毛病。克里姆林宫拒绝这种说法，说普京总统只不过是在锻炼的时候拉伤了肌肉。在另外一种政治制度下，故事可能就到此为止了。但是在俄罗斯这个神秘事件却有了象征意义。
Over the years, Mr Putin has played on traditional Russian deference to the leader while relying on manipulation of the media. The “charismatic aura” for Mr Putin, says Lev Gudkov of the Levada Centre polling group, has produced a system like “Byzantium, only on television.” The real point of the story about Mr Putin’s back was not the supposed ailment but the breaking of a taboo over discussing his health—and his future.
在这几年里，普金一直依赖操控媒体来引导俄罗斯大众臣服于他的领导。拉维达中心民意调查集团的勒夫古德科威说，普京头上的“魅力光环”催生出一种类似于“电视里的拜占庭”的系统。其实普京事件真正的重点不是他到底得的什么病，而是打破了不能谈论他身体状况和未来的禁忌。
The biggest concern is Mr Putin’s isolation. His claim to Germany’s Angela Merkel that Pussy Riot members had hanged the effigy of a Jew in 2008 was bizarre and inaccurate (in fact, the band was protesting against anti-Semitism); either he was misleading her or he had himself been misled. Mr Putin has spent over a decade in power and Yevgenia Albats, editor of the liberal New Times, talks of the “typical syndrome of an ageing general secretary”.
最令人担忧的是普京现在的孤立状况。他曾经向德国的安吉拉默克尔宣称，Pussy Riot乐队的成员曾于2008年绞杀一个犹太人的雕像，这个宣称既古怪又不准确（实际上这个乐队抗议的正是反犹太主义）；要么就是普京在误导默克尔，要么就是他自己也被误导了。普京执政已经超过十年，对此，新时代杂志的编辑同时也是无党派人士耶维格尼亚阿尔巴特表示，这是“年老的总统的典型症状”。
Compared with his early years in charge when he relied on economic aides like German Gref and Alexei Kudrin, Mr Putin has less faith in the counsel of those around him and more certainty in his own judgment. After a difficult year, he believes that he “owes his position to a hard-fought electoral victory, unlike his colleagues who have no mandate from the voters”, says Sergei Guriev of the New Economic School. On many issues, says one former adviser, Mr Putin “thinks he understands the situation, but in fact it can be quite incomprehensible for him”.
普京总统当权的早些年依赖其经济助手比如格尔曼.格列夫和阿列克谢.库德林，与那时相比，他现在对他周围的忠告更加不信任而对自己的判断更加确信。在经历了艰难的一年之后，他相信他“把自己的地位归功于通过艰苦奋战取得的选举胜利，不像他那些选民没有授权的同事们”，新经济学院的谢尔盖·瓦西里连科说。一个前顾问说，普京总统在很多事情上“认为他了解情况，但是实际上情况对他来说可能很难以理解”。
Decision-making in the Kremlin appears to be on hold. Mr Putin has slowed down progress on the budget, on pensions and on privatisation. This may partly be a prudent move to sit out recent turmoil in global markets. But the danger of what Chris Weafer of Troika Dialog calls a “deliberate policy of inactivity” is that Mr Putin waits too long, acting only when the next political or financial crisis hits him.
克林姆宫的决策似乎要推迟了。普京总统放缓了预算、养老金和私有化的进展。部分原因是出于普京对近期全球市场混乱无序的谨慎考虑，不愿去淌这个浑水。但是克丽丝韦弗和特罗伊卡戴尔罗格称此举十分危险，是一种“故意不作为的政策”，也就是说普京一直按兵不动，直到下一次政治或金融危机出现时再采取对策。
As for the campaign against corruption, it will go only so far. Corruption is a pillar of Putin-era stability as much as a threat to it. Much of what could be called corruption has become formalised, if not legalised, through official tenders, court rulings and bank-approved loans. That makes it both more prevalent and amorphous—and harder to eliminate.
至于反腐斗争，也只能到此为止了。腐败既是普京政局稳定的一大支柱，也是一大威胁。被称为腐败的很多东西即使没有合法化，也通过正式投标、法院裁决和银行许可的贷款变得正常化了。这就导致贪污问题更加普遍，形式更加复杂，更难消除。
Alexei Venediktov of the Ekho Moskvy radio station likens the situation to “turbulence” in an aeroplane. The ruling class may know “in which direction and with which pilot” they are flying, he says; but the plane is shaking disconcertingly.
回声电台的阿列克谢·维涅季克托夫将此比作飞机遇到的“不稳定气流”。在飞行时统治阶层也许清楚“朝何处前进，和哪位飞行员一同协作”， 但是飞机正在令人不安地摇晃。翻译：孙齐圣
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