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On New Year's day, a tree snail called George died in a terrarium in Hawaii at the ripe old age of 14.
在新年那一天，一只名为乔治的14岁高龄金顶树蜗在夏威夷的一个玻璃容器中去世。
And while the death of a single snail might not seem like a kind of thing you might a News Show about,
虽然似乎不会为了一只蜗牛的死来做一期新闻节目，
George had been the last known Achatinella apexfulva for more than a decade.
但是乔治是10多年来的最后一只已知夏威夷金顶树蜗。
So that death marked the first extinction of 2019 and with the way things are going, it won't be the last.
所以它的死标志着2019年的第一起物种灭绝，随着事情的发展，这将不会是最后一起。
George the snail spent its entire life being cared for by biologists, a fate now shared by dozens of its close cousins.
蜗牛乔治一生都由生物学家照顾，现在它的很多近亲也是相同的命运。
There were once over 700 species of land snail in Hawaii,
夏威夷曾有七百多种蜗牛，
including hundreds of Hawaiian tree snails that, like George, feed on the fungi, algae and bacteria that grow on leaves.
包括像乔治这样的数百种夏威夷金顶树蜗都以菌类、藻类和树叶上的细菌为食。
When British explorers first came to the islands in the 1700s, they described clusters of colorful snails hanging from the trees.
18世纪当英国探险家首次来到这片岛屿时，他们叙述称很多各种颜色的蜗牛悬挂在树上。
But many of those are now gone, thanks to centuries of human harvesting and
但是其中很多已经灭绝了，多亏了几世纪以来的人类捕捉以及
the introduction of the snail-eating rosy wolfsnail in the 1950s.
20世纪50年代，以蜗牛为食的狼蜗的引入。
By the late '90s, scientists studying Hawaii's native snails realized that dozens of species were on the brink of extinction,
到90年代后期，研究夏威夷本土蜗牛的科学家发现几十个物种都濒临灭绝，
so they established a captive breeding program.
所以他们成立了圈养繁殖项目。
And in 1997, the last ten or so wild snails of George's species were all taken to the lab at the University of Hawaii.
1997年，最后十多只和乔治同种类的野生蜗牛被带到了夏威夷大学实验室。
Tree snails take 5 to 7 years to mature, and after mating, each pair of snails gives birth to less than ten babies annually.
树蜗的成熟期为5到7年，每对树蜗每年产下不到10只蜗牛宝宝。
So captive breeding was slow going, and then, in the early 2000s, most of them just… died.
所以圈养繁殖项目进展缓慢，在2000年初，大部分树蜗都死了。
Only one juvenile survived and it was nicknamed George, after Lonesome George the tortoise.
仅有一只小蜗牛活了下来并取名乔治，以象龟孤独乔治命名。
Though researchers searched for over a decade, they never found another apexfulva.
虽然研究人员进行了十多年的搜寻，但他们并未发现其他的夏威夷金顶树蜗。
So George's death marked the end of an entire species.
所以乔治的死亡标志着这一整个物种的终结。
And if that's not sad enough on its own, it's just the latest of a string of extinctions especially in snails and slugs.
如果这个消息还不过悲伤，那如果我说这仅仅是近期的一系列物种灭绝（尤其是蜗牛和蛞蝓）呢。
If you look at all the known extinctions that have occured since 1500, about 40% are land-dwelling mollusks.
如果你查看了自1500年起的所有已知物种灭绝，你会发现约40%都是陆栖软体动物。
Worldwide, scientists estimate more than 600 snails and slugs are now extinct
科学家预估，全球有超过600只蜗牛和蛞蝓正在灭绝
because of habitat destruction, climate change, invasive species, and even tourism.
因为栖息地遭到毁坏、气候变化、物种入侵，甚至是旅游。
And in 2017, scientists used the group to calculate the likely extinction rates for all animals over the next century and a half
2017年，科学家们以组计算未来一个半世纪中可能灭绝的动物
And it doesn't look good.
结果不太好。
Their estimates suggest we could lose 5 percent of all species each decade,
他们预估地球每十年就会失去5%的物种，
which means half of all the animals on Earth could go extinct in the next 150 years.
这意味着地球上一半的动物可能在未来的150年内灭绝。
As devastating as that is, such dire predictions assume that we stay on our current path.
这是毁灭性的，这种可怕的预测是以人类目前的进程为基础。
The biologists that worked with George have emphasized that there are lots of species we can still save
照顾乔治的生物学家强调，我们可以拯救的物种有很多
including many of George's cousins—if we turn things around sooner rather than later.
包括乔治的很多近亲—如果我们尽早扭转事态的话。
And... not all species are barreling towards extinction.
不是所有物种都要灭绝了。
A new paper in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science has found that some Antarctic species might actually benefit from climate change.
《海洋科学前沿》期刊中的一篇新文章发现一些南极物种可能从气候变化中获益。
They did a risk assessment analysis to estimate how dozens of species will likely fare in the next 50 years or so,
他们做了一个风险评估分析，估测几十个物种在未来50多年中将如何过活，
depending on how fast the Antarctic warms.
这取决于南极地区变暖的速度。
The scientists first trawled through a ton of academic literature to come up with seven environmental factors
首先科学家们查阅了大量科学文献，得出了7个
that would most strongly affect Antarctic species—stuff like rising temperatures, ocean acidification, or melting sea ice.
对南极物种有重大影响的环境因素—比如气温上升、海洋酸化或海冰融化。
They then found research which could speak to how each factor would impact a given species.
然后他们发现了能够证明每个因素如何影响某个给定物种的研究。
They then tallied these up for 31 Antarctic species.
之后统计出了31个南极洲物种。
The vast majority of the 21 invertebrates they studied—70 percent—would likely benefit from climate change.
他们所研究的21种无脊椎动物中的大部分—70%—可能从气候变化中获益。
For example, less sea ice means more sunlit water where plant-like phytoplankton can grow,
例如，更少的海冰意味着更多的受阳光照射的水，浮游植物可以在此生长，
and that means more to eat for suspension feeders like clams and jellies.
这也意味着滤食性动物，如蛤蚌和水母有更多食物可吃。
And as the ice breaks up, it tends to drift into shallower waters and scrape the seabed.
随着冰层破裂，其更容易漂移至浅水域并刮过河床。
That's good news for bottom feeders like the proboscis worm and cold-loving sea stars,
这对底层鱼类，如吻虫以及嗜冷的海星是个好消息，
which would be able to spread out and gobble up any organisms killed in the process.
它们能够伸展并吃掉在这个过程中的丧命的任何生物体。
What was really surprising, though, was that about half of the 10 bony creatures studied may benefit a little, too —at least indirectly.
真正让人惊讶的是所研究的10种多骨生物中有约一半或许也能得到点好处，—至少是间接获益。
The king penguin, for example, might have more room to breed because the receding ice opens up space on the glacial plains where it loves to nest.
例如帝企鹅可能有更多繁育的空间，因为融化的冰打开了它们最爱的筑巢地—冰川平原。
And both the king penguin and the southern right whale might do better
对帝企鹅和南露脊鲸可能更好
because their main food sources, small fish and crustaceans, feed on plankton blooms,
因为它们的主要食物来源，小鱼和甲壳纲动物，都以浮游生物水花为食，
and are therefore predicted to increase in numbers.
因此它们的数量预计将出现增长。
But—and it's a pretty big caveat—most of these animals will also lose a major source of food: krill.
但这也是一个相当大的警示—这种动物中的大部分也将失去主要食物来源：磷虾。
That could mean the end of species like adelie, emperor and chinstrap penguins as well as humpback whales.
这可能意味着一些物种，如阿德利企鹅、帝王企鹅和帽带企鹅以及座头鲸的灭绝。
Also, even if an animal benefits in a big way in one category—like food availability—
即便某一动物可以从食物可得性方面受益
they might lose out in another, like having good habitat available.
但它们或许会失去另一样东西，比如良好可得的栖息地。
And scientists don't yet have a totally clear understanding of how the environmental factors interact or influence one another.
科学家还没有完全弄清楚环境因素如何相互作用或影响。
So, while a species might get more pluses than minuses in a risk assessment, they might not do so well in real life,
所以虽然在风险评估中，一种动物获得的加号或许比减号多，但现实情况下，它们不见得好过。
especially some of those minuses turn out to be bigger in some of the pluses.
尤其是其中一些减号结果可能更多。
One thing is certain: a lot will change as the planet warms.
有一点是确定的：很多物种将随着星球变暖而变化。
The Antarctic ecosystems forged by climate change will look very different from what we see today.
由气候变化所锻造的南极地区生态系统看起来将和现在非常不同。
And I don't know about you, but I like penguins.
不知道大家怎么看，但我超喜欢企鹅。
Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow News! And a special thanks to our President of Space SR Foxley. You're the best, SR!
感谢收看本期《科学秀》！特别感谢Space 总裁SR Foxley。
We really appreciate your support, and the support of all our other patrons on Patreon.
我们真心感谢您的支持，以及Patreon赞助人的支持。
If you want to be as cool as SR and help us make episodes like this one, you can learn more about becoming a patron at Patreon.com/SciShow.
如果你想像SR一样酷，并想帮助我们制作这样的视频，你可以登陆Patreon.com/SciShow了解更多。
And if you want to stay up to date on what's happening in the world of science, tune in here every Friday!
如果你想了解科学界新闻，每周五来此收看！
