评论
打印
So all this amazing recent progress in AI really begs the question: How far will it go?
所以近来，这些惊人的人工智能进步让大家不禁想问：它到底能达到怎样的程度？
I like to think about this question in terms of this abstract landscape of tasks,
我在思考这个问题时，想从工作任务中的抽象地景来切入，
where the elevation represents how hard it is for AI to do each task at human level,
图中的海拔高度表示人工智能要把每一项工作做到人类的水平的难度，
and the sea level represents what AI can do today.
海平面表示现今的人工智能所达到的水平。
The sea level is rising as AI improves, so there's a kind of global warming going on here in the task landscape.
随着人工智能的进步，海平面会上升，所以在这工作任务地景上，有着类似全球变暖的后果。
And the obvious takeaway is to avoid careers at the waterfront -- which will soon be automated and disrupted.
很显然，我们要避免从事那些近海区的工作--这些工作不会一直由人来完成，迟早要被自动化取代。
But there's a much bigger question as well. How high will the water end up rising?
然而同时，还存在一个很大的问题，水平面最后会升到多高？
Will it eventually rise to flood everything, matching human intelligence at all tasks.
它最后是否会升高到淹没一切，人工智能会不会最终能胜任所有的工作？
This is the definition of artificial general intelligence -- AGI, which has been the holy grail of AI research since its inception.
这就成了通用人工智能--缩写是AGI，从一开始它就是人工智能研究最终的圣杯。
By this definition, people who say, "Ah, there will always be jobs that humans can do better than machines,"
根据这个定义，有人说，“总是有些工作，人类可以做得比机器好的。”
are simply saying that we'll never get AGI.
意思就是，我们永远不会有AGI。
Sure, we might still choose to have some human jobs or to give humans income and purpose with our jobs,
当然，我们可以仍然保留一些人类的工作，或者说，通过我们的工作带给人类收入和生活目标，
but AGI will in any case transform life as we know it with humans no longer being the most intelligent.
但是不论如何，AGI都会转变我们对生命的认知，人类或许不再是最有智慧的了。
Now, if the water level does reach AGI, then further AI progress will be driven mainly not by humans but by AI,
如果海平面真的上升到AGI的高度，那么进一步的人工智能进展将会由人工智能来引领，而非人类，
which means that there's a possibility that further AI progress could be way faster than the typical human research and development timescale of years,
那就意味着有可能，进一步提升人工智能水平将会进行得非常迅速，甚至超越用年份来计算时间的典型人类研究和发展，
raising the controversial possibility of an intelligence explosion
提高到一种极具争议性的可能性，那就是智能爆炸，
where recursively self-improving AI rapidly leaves human intelligence far behind, creating what's known as superintelligence.
即能够不断做自我改进的人工智能很快就会遥遥领先人类，创造出所谓的超级人工智能。
