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1.burdensome 繁重的
The load was too burdensome.
工作量过于繁重。
2.contraction 紧缩
One is the ongoing fiscal contraction.
第一个因素是持续的财政紧缩。
v. 预知，预言，预报，预测
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- Also, their government debt loads, generally averaging less than 50% of GDP,
- 此外，他们的政府债务负担平均不到GDP的50%，
- are far less burdensome than those of many major economies, including Japan (253%) and the United Kingdom (85%).
- 远低于许多主要经济体的负担，包括日本（253%）和英国（85%）。
- And emerging markets hold 80% of the world's people.
- 新兴市场拥有全球80%的人口。
- Both Research Affiliates and GMO predict far higher future returns in emerging markets compared with U.S. stocks, despite the volatility.
- 尽管市场波动较大，但锐联资产管理和GMO均预测新兴市场的未来回报远高于美国股市。
- Both point to a gap in valuations that's unjustified by fundamentals.
- 两者都表明，估值差距并不符合基本原理。
- The best measure, they say, is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE, developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller.
- 他们说，最好的衡量标准是周期性地调整市盈率，即由耶鲁大学经济学家Robert Shiller提出的CAPE。
- It uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings as the denominator, correcting for temporary peaks and valleys in earnings.
- 其使用经通胀调整后的10年平均收益作为分母，对收益的暂时峰值和低谷进行修正。
- Today, the CAPE for the S&P 500 stands at 31.1, vs. 12.5 for emerging markets.
- 如今，标准普尔500指数的CAPE为31.1，而新兴市场的CAPE为12.5。
- "That means emerging-market stocks are 60% cheaper than U.S. stocks," says Arnott.
- “这意味着新兴市场股票比美国股票便宜60%，”Arnott说到。
- Earnings growth of 3.8% in emerging markets is just a bit better than in the U.S., says Research Associates.
- 新兴市场3.8%的收入增幅仅略高于美国，Research Affiliates说到。
- In part, that's because big companies headquartered in those countries face competitive factors similar to those of the U.S. and European giants.
- 这在一定程度上是因为总部位于这些国家的大公司面临着与欧美巨头类似的竞争因素。
- But dividend yields of 3.1% are well above the 1.9% offered by the U.S. benchmark S&P 500. (Yields reflect dividends as a percentage of prices.)
- 但3.1%的股息收益率远高于美国基准标普500指数1.9%的收益率。（收益率反映股息占价格的百分比。）
- Then there's the lure that so many emerging-market stocks are so darn cheap.
- 还有一个诱惑是，许多新兴市场股票都非常便宜。
- Rising valuations, says Brightman of Research Affiliates, should add another 1% a year.
- Research Affiliates的Brightman表示，不断上升的估值应该每年再增加1%。
- Add all the components, and emerging-market stocks should return around 10% annually over the next decade.
- 所有因素加在一起，在未来十年内，新兴市场股票的年回报率应该约为10%。
- Research Affiliates' forecast for the U.S.: 2.6%. GMO is less optimistic but believes a 5.2% annual return is probable.
- Research Affiliates对美股的预测为2.6%。GMO就没那么乐观，但也认为5.2%的年回报率是有可能的。
- Still, it thinks U.S. stocks, hit by a steady contraction in valuations, will fare miserably, saddling investors with average annual losses of 3.2% through 2025.
- 但其认为，受到估值持续缩水的打击，美股表现将会很糟糕，到2025年，投资者将承受3.2%的平均年跌幅。
- Those rich emerging-market returns come at a price—a performance chart that careens from sharp spikes to jolting drops.
- 新兴市场丰厚的回报是需要付出代价的——一张从飙升到暴跌的表现图。
- According to Research Affiliates, emerging-market stocks are 50% more volatile than U.S. equities.
- 根据Research Affiliates，新兴市场股市波动性比美国股市高出50%。
- In two-thirds of all the months you own them, you can expect 6% swings to be normal. That's a lot of lurching around.
- 在你持有这些股票的三分二的时间里，你可以预计6%的波动是正常的。周围颠簸重重
- Thorndike of GMO explains why braving the roller coaster is worth it.
- GMO的Thorndike解释了为什么冒险坐过山车是值得的。
- "The great thing about cheap," he says, "is that as an investor, you don't need anything great to happen.
- “便宜的好处，”他说，“就是作为投资者，你不需要什么好事情发生。”
- You just need a lot of bad things not to happen."
- 你只需要不发生太多坏事就行了。”
- It's possible that this basket of stocks will get worse before it gets better, so you need to take the long view.
- 这一揽子股票有可能在好转之前变得更糟，所以你需要看得长远。
- When pessimism is much too high, and prices are much too low, that's the perfect time to pounce.
- 当悲观情绪过高，且价格过低时，就是出击的最佳时机。
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