On Oct. 1, South Africa reopened its borders to some international tourists, but industry analysts predict that it could be a year or more before numbers rebound to prepandemic levels, leaving many reserves in the lurch.

The crisis may now be pushing wildlife managers to accelerate existing moves to diversify away from tourism and into alternatives like carbon offsets, Graham says. Large parks like Kruger and Masai Mara are carbon sinks as much as they are biodiversity reserves. Many large companies are committing to offset carbon emissions through forest protection and regeneration, and wildlife reserves could be the first to benefit.

Craig Spencer, head warden of a semiprivate reserve adjacent to Kruger National Park, is not so sure it will be enough. Setting up reserves as carbon-capture zones without a focus on animal welfare might lead to the installation of wind turbines or solar panels that would be just as destructive to wild animals, he warns. Tourism at least preserved the landscape, he says, because even as tourists expect luxury, they demand a facade of true wilderness—no matter what props it up behind the scenes.

Still, Spencer adds, the past few tourist-free months have been a blessing in disguise for wildlife. The rhinos are breeding, he says, and the hyenas too. Without the constant presence of human observers, the animals have regained a sense of freedom he hasn't seen for decades. "It's like they own the place again," he says. "If we could find a way to run these national parks without the need for this mass tourism, it would be obviously ideal, but I don't think that is doable. I think we need the tourism, whether we like it or not."

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