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Today I’ve got guest and Physicist Max Tegmark here to answer some questions.
今天我请来了嘉宾物理学家迈克斯·泰格马克来回答一些问题。
Ok, Max, why should I care about nuclear weapons?
迈克斯，为什么我应该关心核武器呢？
Because we’ve learned that they’re even more dangerous than we first thought:
因为我们已经了解到它们比我们最初想象的还要危险:
The biggest threat from nukes isn’t explosions that each kill millions of people, or radioactive fallout that kills even more,
核武器带来的最大威胁不是每一场爆炸都会造成数百万人死亡，也不是导致更多人死亡的放射性尘降物，
or even a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse that causes mayhem by frying the electrical grid and electronics across a continent.
甚至不是高空电磁脉冲会破坏整个陆地的电网和电子设备，从而引发混乱。
No, the biggest threat from nuclear weapons is a global nuclear-induced winter,
不，核武器带来的最大威胁是全球性的核冬季，
in which the fires and smoke from as few as a thousand nukes could darken the atmosphere enough to plunge Earth into a planet-wide mini ice age with year-round winter-like conditions.
在这种情况下，仅1000枚核武器产生的火焰和烟雾就可以使大气层变得昏暗，足以使地球进入一个全球范围的小冰期，全年都是冬季。
This could cause a complete collapse of the global food system and apocalyptic unrest, potentially killing most of us 7 billion people on Earth.
这会导致全球粮食系统的完全崩溃和世界末日般的动荡，有可能导致地球上70亿人中的大多数死亡。
But didn’t we get rid of most nuclear weapons when the cold war ended?
但冷战结束时，我们不是已经销毁了大多数核武器吗?
Well… Yes and no. When the cold war ended, the US and Russia slashed their nuclear arsenals, but they still have about 7000 nukes each,
是的，也不是。冷战结束后，美国和俄罗斯削减了各自的核武库，但它们各自仍拥有约7000枚核武器，
which could allow either country to create a nuclear winter all on its own, even if the other doesn’t retaliate.
这可以让两国独自创造一个核冬天，即使对方不进行报复。
But why should I worry about nuclear winter when nobody in their right mind would ever start a nuclear war?
但在没有人会发动核战争的情况下，我为什么要担心核冬天呢?
Unfortunately, an all-out nuclear assault isn’t as unlikely as you might think, because the most likely way for nuclear war to start isn’t political – it’s accidental.
不幸的是，一场全面的核袭击并不像你想象的那样不可能，因为核战争最可能的爆发方式不是政治性的，而是偶然的。
For example, the time faulty computer chips in US alarm systems erroneously signaled incoming Soviet missiles and the US started to prepare for full-blown retaliation.
例如，美国警报系统中的错误计算机芯片错误地向来袭的苏联导弹发出信号，美国开始准备全面报复。
Or the time that Russian satellites mistook an unusual glint of sunlight off of clouds for incoming American missiles and an officer averted retaliation by ignoring the alarm on gut instinct.
还有一次，俄罗斯卫星把云层上不寻常的阳光误认为是来袭的美国导弹，一名军官凭借直觉平息了警报，避免了报复。
Or the time after the cold war ended when Russian radar systems thought a Norwegian scientific rocket was an American nuclear missile and almost launched their missiles in retaliation.
或者冷战结束后，俄罗斯雷达系统认为挪威的科学火箭是美国的核导弹，为了报复，几乎就要发射他们的导弹。
These close-calls keep happening, and sooner or later our luck is gonna run out and an entire nuclear arsenal will be launched accidentally.
这些险情不断发生，迟早我们的运气会耗尽，整个核武库都会被意外发射。
But isn’t getting rid of nukes a national security threat?
但是，销毁核武器难道不是对国家安全的威胁吗?
Well, it’s pretty clear that a country only needs a small number of nuclear weapons to effectively deter nuclear attacks,
显然，一个国家只需要少量的核武器就可以有效地阻止核攻击，
and any more are as much a national security threat to the nation that owns them as to the rest of the planet.
任何更多的核武器对拥有核武器的国家和对地球上其他国家一样都是安全威胁。
So given the risks of accidental nuclear war and nuclear winter, it’s stupid, dangerous, and irresponsible for any country on earth to have more nuclear weapons than it needs for deterrence.
因此，考虑到意外核战争和核冬天的风险，地球上任何国家拥有超过其威慑所需的核武器都是愚蠢的、危险的和不负责任的。
If we just continue hoarding excessive nuclear arsenals, winter is coming.
如果我们继续囤积过多的核武器，冬天就不远了。
OK, Max, one more question: why should I spend my time worrying about nukes when there’s nothing I can do about them?
那么，麦克斯，还有一个问题：如果我对核武器无能为力的话，为什么我要花时间去担心呢?
Actually, there is something you can do!
实际上，你是可以做一些事的！
The nuclear arms race isn’t driven entirely by security interests: money drives it too, and politicians who like to act tough.
核军备竞赛并不完全是由安全利益驱动的：金钱和喜欢展现强硬的政客也在推动它。
In a time when they really should be downgrading, the US & Russian governments are both planning to upgrade their arsenals at a huge cost.
在他们真正应该降级的时候，美国和俄罗斯政府都在计划以巨大的支出升级他们的武库。
And who does that money go to?
那笔钱给谁了？
Well, about 2% of S&P 500 companies are involved in nuclear weapons production,
大约2%的标普500公司参与了核武器生产，
and while you can’t stop paying taxes, you can help stigmatize the nuclear arms race by divesting from companies that produce nuclear weapons.
虽然你不能停止纳税，但你可以通过不在生产核武器的公司消费来帮助削弱核军备竞赛。
