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A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta and Lambda May Be Coming, Scientists Say
科学家称，一种比Delta和Lambda更糟糕的末日新冠病毒变体可能即将到来
Scientists keep underestimating the coronavirus. In the beginning of the pandemic, they said mutated versions of the virus wouldn't be much of a problem—until the more-infectious Alpha caused a spike in cases last fall. Then Beta made young people sicker and Gamma reinfected those who'd already recovered from COVID-19. Still, by March, as the winter surge in the U.S. receded, some epidemiologists were cautiously optimistic that the rapid vaccine rollout would soon tame the variants and cause the pandemic to wind down.
科学家们一直在低估冠状病毒。在疫情之初，他们说，变异的病毒不会造成太大问题，直到去年秋天更具传染性的Alpha病毒导致病例激增。接着Beta病毒使年轻人病情加重，Gamma病毒再次感染那些已经从新冠肺炎中康复的人。尽管如此，到了3月份，随着美国冬季病例激增逐渐消退，一些流行病学家仍持谨慎乐观的态度，认为快速推出的疫苗将很快制服病毒变种，使疫情逐渐平息。
Delta has now shattered that optimism. This variant, first identified in India in December, spreads faster than any previous strain of SARS-CoV-2, as the COVID-19 virus is officially named. It is driving up infection rates in every state of the U.S., prompting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to once again recommend universal mask-wearing.
如今，德尔塔变种使这种乐观期望破灭。这种变种于去年12月在印度被首次发现，它的传播速度比以往任何一种SARS-CoV-2（这是COVID-19的正式名称）毒株都快。它正在推高美国各州的感染率，导致疾病控制和预防中心再次建议全民佩戴口罩。
The Delta outbreak is going to get much worse, warns Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist who leads the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "The number of intensive-care beds needed could be higher than any time we've seen," he says. He adds that his team's analysis shows that almost every single one of the 100 million unvaccinated Americans who hasn't had COVID-19 yet will likely get it in the coming months, short of taking the sort of strong isolation and masking precautions that seem unlikely in the vaccine-hesitant population.
明尼苏达大学传染病研究和政策中心负责人、流行病学家迈克尔·奥斯特霍尔姆警告说，德尔塔病毒带来的疫情暴发将变得更加严重。他说：“所需的重症监护床位数量可能比我们见过的任何时候都要多。”他补充说，他们团队的分析显示，在接下来的几个月里，未接种疫苗且还未感染新冠病毒的1亿美国人中，几乎每一个人都有可能感染，除非采取强有力的隔离和口罩预防措施，而在对接种疫苗态度犹豫的人群中，这种预防措施似乎不太可能。
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